According to the Economic Times, gold prices in the 2023-2024 fiscal year in India have increased by 11%, nearly double the retail inflation index of 5,7% in this country. Compared to the international market, Indian gold prices have also grown significantly compared to the 10% growth of international gold prices on Comex.
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| Gold jewelry in India. Photo source: Dhiraj Singh, Bloomberg. |
According to Ms. Kavita Chacko, Head of India Research at the World Gold Council, the reason gold prices in India have increased is due to the slow growth of the US economy, dragging down the USD and Treasury bond interest rates. The US decreased, along with geopolitical tensions in the past year.
Through a survey by the Economic Times, investors in India are optimistic about the prospects of gold in the next fiscal year, in the context of easing global monetary policy, accompanied by the expected Federal Reserve. The US state (FED) cuts interest rates at the end of this year. Furthermore, the recovery of the Chinese economy and geopolitical concerns will likely cause gold prices to rise.
Forecasting the future of gold prices next year, Mr. Anuj Gupta - Head of Commodities & Currency at HDFC Securities Finance Company, expects the spot gold price on Comex to reach 2.250 - 2.300 USD/ounce. . Similarly, Mr. Naveen Mathur, Director of Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares predicted that gold prices could reach a record high of 2.280 USD/ounce in the first half of 2025.
Furthermore, demand for gold could increase next year as central banks buy gold to diversify their reserves. “This is a great opportunity for investors” – Mr. Praveen Singh, Vice President in charge of Currencies and Basic Commodities, BNP Paribas investment bank, shared in the Economic Times. He predicts the price of gold will reach 2.600 USD/ounce in the future.
However, Mr. Praveen Singh also warned about potential risks from inflation in the US, in the context of US economic growth that could force the FED to pause or narrow its monetary easing plan. If the FED continues to raise interest rates this year, US 10-year bond yields will skyrocket, which could put pressure on gold prices.
Forecasting that gold prices may fluctuate in the future, Mr. Praveen Singh suggested that consumers should only invest in gold once the market has cooled down. A representative of financial research company Equitymaster (India), also advised investors to only keep a minimum of 5-10% of their investment in gold. In particular, in recent times, gold prices in the world have continuously fluctuated and reversed.
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| Chart of world gold price fluctuations, recorded at 11:20 a.m. March 25, 3 |
As of 11:20 a.m. on March 25, 3, the world gold price is reaching nearly 2024 USD/ounce, an increase of about 2.170,47 USD compared to the previous day (March 5,16).
On Kitco, gold price closed the weekend session at 2.164 USD/ounce. Gold futures price for delivery in April 4 on the Comex New York floor is trading at 2024 USD/ounce.
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| Gold price at Saigon Jewelry Company Limited - SJC, recorded at 11:20 p.m. on March 25, 3 |
In the early morning of March 25, 3, SJC's 2024 gold price increased by 9999 VND/tael on the buying side and remained unchanged on the selling side compared to the closing session last weekend, at 300 million VND/tael. (sale afternoon).
Recorded at 11:20 on March 25, 3, the price of SJC gold at Saigon Jewelry Company Limited - SJC is at 2024 million VND for selling, and 78 million VND for buying.
According to experts, SJC gold prices cooled down quickly and narrowed the gap with the world in the context of the market expecting new moves on gold bar management proposals in the direction of abolishing SJC gold monopoly and licensing a number of gold bars. Enterprises are qualified to produce SJC gold and gold rings.
In the context of gold prices continuing to fall sharply, many experts recommend that investors and people who buy gold at prices lower than the purchase price at this time should consider selling gold to take profits. . The reason is because the domestic gold market is being affected by the world gold market after the dovish announcement from the FED. Not to mention, the domestic gold market is "holding its breath" waiting for specific operating instructions from the Government and State Bank.
