Following the positive increase of the previous May, VN-Index has recorded an increase of 43.47 points (3.26%) since the beginning of June 2025. The rotational increase in prices of pillar stocks has created momentum for the market to overcome the strong resistance zone of 1,350 points to consolidate the short-term uptrend.
However, the average trading value per session in June reached about 17,100 billion VND, 4% lower than the previous month. In which, most trading sessions recorded lower liquidity than the average of 20 sessions. Foreign investors returned to net selling after a rare month of buying . However, the net selling value of foreign investors last month was only about 520 billion VND.
According to analysts from Nhat Viet Securities (VFS), although the selling pressure is not too large, the cash flow entering the market is still selective due to the lack of supporting information. The market's upward momentum mainly comes from the VN30 group with an increase of 3.78% in the month.
In June, the leading momentum no longer depended too much on the two Vingroup stocks, VIC and VHM, but "rotated" to other stocks such as TCB, CTG, MSN... Cash flow also rotated between banking, real estate, retail, securities groups... Notably, the group of chemical and oil and gas stocks strongly attracted cash flow with an increase of over 5%, in which many codes such as OIL, PLX, PVS, DDV, PHR increased by over 10%. The driving force came from the sharp increase in fertilizer and oil and gas prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
According to experts from VFS, July is a period of many fluctuations due to the impact of US trade policy and the second quarter business results announcement season. According to historical data compiled by experts from Nhat Viet Securities (VFS), in the past 10 years, VN-Index has recorded 7 years of increasing points in July.
Therefore, 2, the market is expected to maintain a positive state. In the positive scenario, demand improves, VN-Index moves up to the 1,400 point area and accumulates before moving towards a higher score. Investors can participate in disbursing in stocks that show signs of continuing the uptrend or breaking out of the accumulation base with large volume. In the second scenario, selling pressure at high prices is increased, VN-Index returns to fluctuate within the range of 1,310 - 1,370 points. Investors can trade within the range for short-term surfing activities by buying at the lower range and waiting to sell at the upper range.
Mr. Tran Hoang Son, Director of Market Strategy at VPBank Securities (VPBankS), the market is opening a new trend, which may continue to increase strongly. In the last week of June, VN-Index for the first time surpassed the important resistance zone, connecting the peaks of the past 2.5 years at 1,360 points. The increase also spread evenly across all sectors.
After a volatile first half of the year, according to Mr. Son, one of the notable factors this month will be the July 9 deadline related to the temporary suspension of reciprocal tariffs from the US. The expert from VPBankS also emphasized that Mr. Trump announced that he had achieved the tariff target with China and the two countries had signed an agreement. However, the specific number has not been announced yet. As for countries that have not yet made an exchange, Mr. Trump may impose new tariffs, which are expected to remain unchanged or remain very high, or President Trump may continue to postpone the July 9 tariff imposition, adding more time for negotiations.
In the first week of July, Mr. Son said that the market is entering a new uptrend, with the imprint of recently passed laws and decrees. Banking, securities, technology stocks ( FPT , CMG), real estate, stocks benefiting from reasonable tariffs (ANV, textile group) are leading. The market is moving very positively and this week or next week, it can reach the target of 1,380 to 1,400 points.
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| VN-Index's Earnings to Price Ratio - Source: VNDirect. |
Meanwhile, reflecting a more optimistic view on the prospect of tax negotiations between Vietnam and the US, the Vndirect Securities Analysis Department has adjusted up its forecast for the VN-Index at the end of 2025 to 1,450 points, up 14% compared to the forecast of 1,400 points at the end of 2024. Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macro and Market Strategy at VNDIRECT, pointed out the baseline scenario for the second half of the year, in which Vietnam is expected to successfully negotiate, bringing the average reciprocal tax rate down to about 16-22% and the Fed will implement two interest rate cuts in the second half of this year, with a solid macro foundation still being the main support for the market, GDP growth is forecast to reach 7.3%, credit growth 16%.
These factors will support the profit growth of listed companies this year at around 14-15%, thereby consolidating the valuation of VN-Index at a projected P/E of 13.5 times at the end of the year. The difference between the earnings yield (E/P) of VN-Index and deposit interest rates shows the attractiveness of stock investment compared to traditional savings.
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| Investment thesis for the second half of the year is also by VNDirect Research. |
Investment arguments for the second half of the year were also pointed out by VNDirect Research, showing that the domestic stock market still has many driving forces such as expectations of market upgrade in the September assessment period and the process of institutional reform, shifting from management thinking to "development creation".
In addition, the acceleration of public investment disbursement, consumption growth and tourism thanks to improved household income are also catalysts affecting stock flows. In addition, Mr. Hinh expects that the moves to remove legal obstacles for more than 2,200 stalled projects will contribute to increasing real estate supply, expanding the infrastructure system through public investment and the public-private partnership (PPP) model and the interest rate level maintained at a low level will have a positive impact on the real estate industry in the second half of 2025.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/vn-index-tang-326-trong-thang-6-ky-vong-chinh-phuc-moc-1400-diem-d318649.html
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