Short-term profit-taking pressure

Experts from the consulting firm FIDT believe that the resistance zone of 1,280 - 1,300 points has lasted for more than a year, with a very large volume of accumulated shares, so it will not be easy for the Vn-Index to break through the 1,300 mark and head towards the 1,320 - 1,350 point zone.

The market continued its positive trading week amid expectations that the Fed will begin its interest rate reduction path at its next meeting, and exchange rate pressure eased quickly. Although there were some fluctuations in the last two sessions of the week due to profit-taking pressure, demand remained strong, so the VN-index closed the week at 1,284.32 points, up 33.09 points.

Liquidity on both exchanges improved significantly this week compared to the previous trading week, with trading volume increasing by 20.6% on HOSE. Foreign investors turned to net selling of -751 billion VND on HOSE, concentrated in VHM (-408.7 billion VND), HPG (-639.8 billion VND), HSG (-301.9 billion VND), and TCB (-175.3 billion VND)... Conversely, they made net purchases ofFPT (+631.6 billion VND) and CTG (+360.4 billion VND)...

The highlight of the news was the Federal Reserve's monetary policy at the Jackson Hole meeting last weekend. In his keynote address, Fed Chairman Powell confirmed a reversal in monetary policy after nearly two years of interest rate tightening.

Following the much-than-expected July unemployment figures (rising from 4.1% to 4.3%), the Fed prioritized the health of the labor market, which is the main reason for the interest rate cut. The medium-term trend for US inflation is highly likely to reach the 2.0% target, so ensuring the health of the economy will be a top priority.

According to FIDT Joint Stock Company (a company specializing in investment consulting and asset management) , the Fed will certainly cut interest rates by 0.25% at its September meeting. The pace of interest rate cuts by the Fed will be very rapid, with expectations of 5-6 0.25% cuts in the next six months. It can be expected that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in meetings until March 2025. The trend for short-term and medium-term USD interest rates (yields on 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds) is expected to decline rapidly in the short term.

According to FIDT, the Fed's reversal of monetary policy in September will open up a major opportunity for global stock markets to surpass their previous highs, initiating expectations of a new growth cycle.

Returning to the stock market, the August 16th trading session was a breakout session with "FTD" signals, triggering a return of capital to the market. The upward trend of the VN-Index was very smooth after that breakout session, rising from the 1,230 point level to near the resistance zone of 1,280 - 1,300 points in just 6 trading sessions.

Cash flow is rapidly returning to the market, evenly distributed across most sectors, due to favorable short-term trading conditions (very low market risk). This strong cash flow effectively absorbs short-term profit-taking pressure, as leading stocks in Real Estate and Securities have consistently absorbed profit-taking, even after rising 25%-30% from their lows.

FIDT experts believe that the large influx of capital into the market will help maintain the upward trend of the VN-Index. In addition, the very strong increase in trading volume in leading stocks suggests a high probability that the 1,180-1,230 point range is the medium-term bottom of the market, providing strong support in the short term.

However, the VN-Index has approached the 1,280-1,300 point resistance zone for the first time in two months, indicating a possibility of a technical correction (30-50 points) if the inflow of capital is insufficient to absorb the selling pressure at the peak. A technical correction at a resistance level will have few predictable signals, apart from some short-term technical factors.

Leading sectors such as Securities and Real Estate have seen significant short-term gains (20% - 30% in 3 weeks), as have many other strong stock groups, with impressive increases of 15% - 20%.

Accordingly, FIDT believes that the market will face continuous short-term profit-taking pressure in the coming period. The VN-Index has approached the 1,280-1,300 point range for the first time after a very deep and prolonged decline. The 1,280-1,300 point resistance zone has lasted for more than a year, with a very large volume of accumulated shares. Therefore, the scenario of the VN-Index breaking through the 1,300 point mark and heading towards the 1,320-1,350 point range is not easy.

Therefore, FIDT advises investors that the VN-Index will experience a short-term technical correction, forming a consolidation base in the 1,260-1,280 point range, before breaking through to the medium-term target of 1,380-1,420 points in the next 3-6 months. Given the strong short-term cash flow and low risk, the technical corrections of the VN-Index will not be deep thanks to the large amount of waiting capital in the market.

The market may experience continuous sector rotations in the coming period, allowing leading stocks to accumulate and creating favorable opportunities for the spillover effect to other sectors.

FIDT experts suggest the following trends are attracting short-term investment flows:

The recovery trend of the real estate market after the recession of 2022-2023, related to the trio of stocks in the real estate market; FIDT suggests real estate stocks, including PDR, DXG, and KDH.

With the market trending towards an upgrade at the end of Q3 2024, FIDT experts suggest securities stocks such as HCM and VCI, as authorities are actively working to approve the important non-prefunding mechanism.

The trend is to boost public investment, in line with the Government 's key public investment policies extending throughout the 2024-2025 period.

In addition, in the Q3/2024 watchlist, FIDT selected several potential sectors and stocks, based on several certain sector trends: (1) Textile and garment industry (TNG, MSH, STK), directly benefiting from very high export demand in the second half of 2024; (2) several other potential sectors, such as: Hydropower - Renewable Energy (HDG, TTA, REE), Livestock (FIDT suggests: DBC), Plastics (FIDT suggests: AAA), Retail (DGW)...

Businesses with potential for growth in 2024-2025 and safe valuation levels continue to be very reasonable investment choices, such as: Banking (HDB, STB), Consumer Goods (FIMSN), and Industrial Real Estate (KBC).

According to Agriseco Research's expert perspective on the market and investment outlook for next week, the VN-Index broke through the 20-day moving average (MA20), corresponding to the 1,230-point level, with a surge in trading volume in the final session of the week. This occurred after the RSI indicator diverged from its most recent peak on July 31st, suggesting an uptrend may be establishing. In the absence of supporting market information, the VN-Index is predicted to maintain its upward momentum in the first session of the week but gradually slow down and may retest the 1,245 (+-5) point support level in subsequent sessions.

Agriseco Research recommends that investors restructure their portfolios during early market rebounds. Additionally, they should wait for opportunities to increase their stock holdings again once the VNIndex completes testing of the aforementioned support zone.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-26-308-ap-luc-chot-loi-ngan-han-d223264.html