Abolishing the monopoly, how long will it take for the domestic gold price to be 17 million/tael higher than the world price?

The psychology of taking refuge when the world gold market fluctuates, combined with the domestic physical supply not yet increasing, will keep the gold price high. It will take about 1-2 years for the domestic and world prices to gradually narrow, and the market will no longer have the scene of "domestic prices being one and a half times higher than foreign prices".

Gold prices remain high

Decree 232 of the Government has just been issued, eliminating the State monopoly mechanism on the production of gold bars, the export of raw gold and the import of raw gold to produce gold bars. This new regulation will take effect from October 10.

Sharing with VietNamNet reporter, economic expert Nguyen Quang Huy, CEO of the Faculty of Finance - Banking (Nguyen Trai University) assessed that the abolition of the monopoly on gold bar production is a major turning point, opening up a competitive mechanism instead of the SJC brand being "alone in the market".

"With this regulation, when more commercial banks and businesses are eligible to participate, the supply of gold bars will gradually improve, creating a foundation for the market to be less distorted, more transparent and closer to international prices," said Mr. Huy.

However, according to Mr. Huy, this is a long-term impact, and in the short term the market cannot change immediately because the licensing, production and trust-building processes require a delay.

In the short term, safe-haven sentiment and limited domestic supply will continue to keep prices high. Photo: Chi Hieu

In addition, Mr. Huy commented that after the gold bar monopoly is abolished, in the short term, domestic gold prices will hardly decrease immediately. Because trust in the SJC gold bar brand is still high, new brands will need time to prove their quality and liquidity.

“The psychology of taking refuge when the world gold market fluctuates, combined with limited domestic physical supply, will keep prices high. In the medium and long term, when there is more supply from banks and businesses, the gap between domestic and world prices will gradually narrow, reducing the situation of ‘domestic prices being one and a half times higher than foreign prices’ in the market. However, this process will take 12-24 months, or even longer, to operate smoothly,” Mr. Huy noted.

It will be more than a month before the regulation abolishing the gold bar monopoly takes effect. Currently, the domestic price of SJC gold bars is still increasing strongly, reaching 127-128.5 million VND/tael (buy - sell) as of the end of the session on August 28. For those who are holding gold, should they sell to take profit?

Answering this question, expert Nguyen Quang Huy said that the decision depends on the risk appetite and expectations of each investor.

“If you buy gold for short-term purposes, the price reaching a historical peak is an opportunity to take profits and reduce the risk of reversal. If you keep gold as a long-term shelter, especially in the context of global instability and potential inflation, investors can continue to hold but need to accept strong fluctuations,” Mr. Huy recommended.

However, according to Mr. Huy, the optimal strategy for investors is to diversify, not put all their capital into gold, and combine it with other assets to balance the risks.

Proposal to establish a specialized agency to manage the gold market

Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, an economic expert, also assessed that the regulation to eliminate the State monopoly mechanism in the production of gold bars as well as the export and import of raw gold according to Decree 232/2025 will help the market become more open, create equality for all economic sectors and promote the diversification of gold products.

He believes that the gold market will have many changes in the coming time, provided that the decree is implemented quickly, not just existing on paper.

“If there are no specific actions, such as declaring that the SJC gold brand is no longer a national gold brand, or the State Bank allowing some commercial banks and businesses to import gold... then the gold market will not have many changes,” Mr. Hieu said.

He analyzed that with the new regulation, the domestic gold price may decrease by about 5-10 million VND/tael, but only if the world gold price remains unchanged. If the world gold price continues to increase, the domestic price will also increase.

Regarding the management of the gold market in the coming time, when many gold bar products appear, experts believe that the responsibility for management has long been mainly undertaken by the State Bank. However, gold is essentially a precious commodity, not a currency, so it is not within the scope of monetary policy and is not under the direct management authority of the State Bank.

Therefore, in the future, it is possible to consider establishing a specialized agency to manage the gold market, separate from the State Bank. This agency will be responsible for stabilizing prices, regulating supply and demand, narrowing the gap between domestic and world gold prices, controlling transactions, preventing smuggling, and supervising all gold trading activities.

According to Mr. Hieu, the Ministry of Finance is the appropriate agency to take on this role.

Vietnamnet.vn

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/bao-lau-het-canh-gia-vang-trong-nuoc-dat-hon-the-gioi-17-trieu-luong-2437270.html