Economic expert Vo Tri Thanh commented, "The geopolitical and economic context is currently the most complicated in decades, with fragmentation of the global economy in many economic, financial, and economic aspects." Technology... has had a negative impact on the economy."
General Director of Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (PetroVietnam) Le Manh Hung chaired the seminar updating macroeconomic developments and forecasting economic scenarios in the fourth quarter of 2023 and 2024.
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| PetroVietnam and economic experts update macroeconomic developments, forecasting the fourth quarter of 2023 and 2024. (Source: PVN) |
Attending the discussion were Dr. Vo Tri Thanh - Director of the Institute for Brand and Competitive Strategy Research; Dr. Can Van Luc - Chief Economist of BIDV Bank, member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council. Also attending the discussion were PetroVietnam Deputy General Director Phan Tu Giang, representatives of specialized departments and member units of the Group.
Geopolitics and economics are the most complicated in decades
At the beginning of the discussion, Dr. Vo Tri Thanh updated macroeconomic developments and forecast economic scenarios for the fourth quarter of 2023 and 2024. Accordingly, in the latest world economic outlook (WEO) report , the International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its forecast for global real GDP growth in 2023 at 3%, but lowered the forecast for 0,1 by 2024 percentage point compared to the level given in July to 7. 2,9%.
Thus, the global economy is forecast to decelerate both this year and next year compared to the 3,5% increase achieved in 2022. Inflation is continuing to decline globally, mainly due to energy prices. quantity decreased and partly due to the decline in food prices.
According to IMF forecasts, average global inflation this year will be 6,9%, down from 8,7% in 2022 and continue to decrease to 5,8% in 2024. According to the assessment of Dr. Vo Tri Thanh, inflation in 2023 and 2024 is still quite high, despite falling sharply in developed economies at over 2%. Core inflation in developed countries is even higher, interest rates remain high and may gradually decrease from mid-2024.
“Looking further ahead, the global economic picture is still in a sensitive period, the conflict in the Gaza Strip this time will have different economic impacts compared to the Russia-Ukraine event. Notably, the Middle East's strongest export product is oil. It can be seen that the geopolitical and economic context is the most complicated in decades, the fragmentation of the global economy in many aspects of economics, finance, technology... is having a negative impact. to the economy," commented expert Vo Tri Thanh.
For the domestic economy, Dr. Vo Tri Thanh reviewed some general features of the stock, corporate bond and real estate market situation from the beginning of the year until now and some policy efforts of the Government. Accordingly, the situation gradually improved, liquidity was abundant, interest rates decreased, and the macroeconomy was quite stable.
However, a number of factors may put pressure on the VND exchange rate in the second half of 2023, including the interest rate difference between VND and USD continuing to narrow because the Fed's operating interest rate may remain in the peak area. until the end of 2023 while the State Bank intends to continue lowering interest rates to support growth. Some Vietnam economic growth forecasts from the end of 2022 to early 2023 are being adjusted in a downward direction.
Forecasting to reach the target of 6,0% - 6,5% in 2023 is almost impossible because to reach 6,0% in the fourth quarter, a growth rate of 10,6% is needed. With an overview of the past time and forecasts of the world and Vietnamese economies in 2024, expert Vo Tri Thanh pointed out some implications for businesses, which are "defend, take advantage of opportunities". overcome difficulties and keep up with trends.
Specifically, it is a matter of strengthening risk management, information processing and building possible scenarios, taking advantage of connecting industries, partners, and Government support packages, keeping pace with current developments. Current trends in digital transformation, green transformation...
Four main risks and challenges in 2023
Presenting about the financial market, interest rates and exchange rates in the fourth quarter of 2023 and 2024, Dr. Can Van Luc reviewed some economic forecasts in the world and Vietnam; Opportunities and challenges for businesses; Interest rate and exchange rate trends in 2023-2024; Some policies to support the market and businesses and suggested solutions for businesses and PetroVietnam.
Accordingly, the world economy will decline in 2023 (growth of 2,1-3% from 3-3,4% in 2022), possibly increasing by about 2,4-2,9% in 2024; Average inflation (CPI) decreases (from 8,2% in 2022 to 5,5% in 2023 and 3,7% in 2024, according to the WB).
Economic experts say that there are four main risks and challenges in 4, which are complex geopolitical conflicts and increased strategic competition between major countries; The failure of a number of banks in the US and Switzerland increases global financial and monetary market risks, increasing the risk of bad debt and default; Energy security and food security risks still exist; Global prices, inflation, and interest rates decreased but remained at high levels, financial and monetary risks increased, making the global economic recovery process more fragile (a rocky recovery); negative impacts on Vietnam's exports, investment, consumption, international tourism and financial markets.
For Vietnam, it is forecast that for the whole year 2023, GDP growth may reach over 5%, although lower than the set target (about 6,5%), it is still quite high compared to many countries in the world and the region. area. The average consumer price index for the year is estimated at about 3,5%, much lower than the target of about 4,5%.
Dr. Can Van Luc said that the growth drivers for 2023-2024 are China's reopening from January 8, 1; Although recovery is slow, it is still positive for the world and Vietnamese economies. Besides, there are opportunities from shifting supply chains and global investment capital flows, services, and consumption increasing quite positively, although slower; Socio-economic recovery and development program 2023-2022; Public investment is promoted. It can be seen that the recovery signal from June 2023 until now is quite clear, in which the macroeconomic foundation and experience in epidemic prevention and risk management have been accumulated better; Fiscal risks are at a moderate level, policy space remains.
At the same time, inflation and interest rates are decreasing, the basic exchange rate is stable, and bad debt risks are under control; The stock and real estate markets show signs of recovery; Digital economy, green economy, circular economy, and energy transition are promoted. Economic restructuring and institutional improvement are promoted (amending the Land Law, Housing Law, Real Estate Business Law, Credit Institutions Law...).
But besides that, there are still many challenges in the world economic decline, slow growth, narrowed export and investment markets, and slow growth; International tourism recovers slowly; low private investment growth; Interest rates are decreasing but still high; International financial and monetary market risks increase, negatively impacting Vietnam; Disbursement of the recovery and public investment program has not yet had a breakthrough, businesses still have many difficulties (legal, capital, human resources, orders...); Risks in the corporate bond and real estate markets need time to be processed and healthy... Expert Can Van Luc also made some forecasts about exchange rate and interest rate trends, crude oil prices in 2024, energy and basic goods by 2025.
For businesses in general and the Oil and Gas industry in particular, Mr. Can Van Luc recommended that PetroVietnam continue to build business scenarios with different gasoline and gas prices, and have solutions to increase supply and reserves (including both national reserves and commercial reserves).
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| PetroVietnam develops a Strategy for producing hydrogen gas from offshore wind power to contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and creating a greener future. (Source: PVN) |
Along with that, build an Energy Transformation Strategy (an inevitable trend), especially after the issuance of Power Plan VIII and the National Assembly's Energy Sector Supervision Report. Promote internal digital transformation and build the PetroVietnam ecosystem, increase adaptability, change management, risk management (interest rates, exchange rates, finance, oil and gas prices...).,Implement the Law Modified Petroleum; contribute to the development of the Law on Renewable Energy, the Law on Management of State Capital at Enterprises (amended),...
After listening to analysis and forecasts from economic experts and discussions from specialized boards and member units, PetroVietnam General Director Le Manh Hung requested relevant boards and member units to continue Update and evaluate groups of macroeconomic and monetary policy issues to include in the 2023 results, and on that basis, focus on reviewing and assessing macroeconomic risks in preparation for the plan. plan for 2024.
