Which sectors are attracting credit?

Credit growth is showing signs of improvement thanks to persistently low interest rates and a gradual recovery in demand for loans, including personal loans for purchasing homes.

Credit continues to grow strongly.

According to the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), as of May 19, 2025, the total outstanding credit balance of the entire system reached approximately VND 16.49 million billion, an increase of 5.59% compared to the end of 2024 and a significant increase of 18.67% compared to the same period last year.

With a target of 16% credit growth for the whole year, equivalent to 2.5 trillion VND, the banking system still has approximately 1.627 trillion VND in room to inject capital in the remaining nearly 7 months of the year.

The credit outlook for the first quarter of 2025 shows a clear recovery, with most of the 27 banks that have published their financial reports recording growth in customer loans. The total outstanding loan balance of this group of banks increased by 4% compared to the end of 2024.

In terms of absolute balances, state-owned commercial banks continue to hold the leading position. BIDV leads with outstanding loans exceeding 2.1 trillion VND, an increase of 2.5%. VietinBank closely follows with the most impressive growth in the group, increasing by 4.6%, bringing its total outstanding loans to over 1.8 trillion VND.

Among joint-stock banks, MB continued to hold the top position with total outstanding customer loans reaching over VND 797,000 billion, an increase of 2.7%. VPBank followed with strong growth of 5.4%, reaching nearly VND 730,000 billion. Other banks such as Techcombank, ACB,SHB , Sacombank, and HDBank also recorded positive signals regarding credit.

Notably, Kienlongbank had the highest growth rate in customer loan balances across the entire system in the first quarter, reaching 10.6%. Other banks with outstanding growth included SHB (9.2%), Eximbank (9.2%), NCB (9.6%), and PG Bank (9.4%). Conversely, only two banks recorded negative growth: ABBank (-0.7%) and Saigonbank (-4.3%).

In Ho Chi Minh City, Mr. Nguyen Duc Lenh – Deputy Director of the State Bank of Vietnam, Region 2 Branch – stated that by the end of May 2025, outstanding credit in the area is estimated to reach approximately 4,085 trillion VND, an increase of 3.6% compared to the end of 2024 and a 13.2% increase compared to the same period last year.

This is the first time outstanding loans in Ho Chi Minh City have exceeded 4 trillion VND, a significant milestone, and also recording the highest growth rate in recent years. Notably, joint-stock commercial banks currently account for approximately 50% of the total outstanding loans in the area and have a faster growth rate compared to state-owned commercial banks.

Credit growth is showing signs of improvement thanks to persistently low interest rates and a gradual recovery in demand for loans, including personal loans for purchasing homes.

Credit flows strongly into production and business, and key industries.

According to Mr. Nguyen Duc Lenh, Deputy Director of the State Bank of Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City Branch, credit continues to prioritize flow into the production and business sector and industries considered to be drivers of economic growth.

In particular, the export sector, one of the three main pillars of growth, is being boosted by commercial banks working closely with trade and investment promotion centers and business associations amidst a volatile global environment marked by US tariff policies.

Mr. Leinh commented that low interest rates are becoming an important lever to facilitate credit flow. Not only does it boost credit growth, but a reasonable interest rate environment also creates conditions for businesses to expand investment, thereby activating a ripple effect throughout the economy.

Typically, short-term credit packages in VND for 5 priority sectors, with interest rates not exceeding 4% per year, have helped numerous small and medium-sized enterprises, high-tech companies, and export businesses access preferential capital in a timely manner.

In addition, policy credit programs such as social housing loans, forestry and fisheries credit, housing support for people under 35 years old, etc., also contribute to stimulating investment, restoring production and business, and improving liquidity for the real estate market.

According to the State Bank of Vietnam, as of April 10, 2025, the average lending interest rate for new disbursements had decreased to 6.34% per year, 0.6 percentage points lower than at the end of 2024. Many banks now publicly display their average lending interest rates on their websites to make it easier for customers to access information, increase transparency in credit information, and enhance access to affordable capital.

Many experts believe that the remaining credit capacity of over 1.6 trillion VND from now until the end of the year is sufficient to boost GDP growth to 8%, while keeping inflation under control below 4.5%. However, the ability to absorb capital depends significantly on the export situation, as the sector is facing considerable pressure from international policies.

Conversely, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, an economic expert, warns that if credit growth exceeds 16%, inflation could surpass the safe threshold of 4.5%.

He also noted that the rapid and uncontrolled flow of capital could be diverted to risky areas such as stocks, gold, and real estate, potentially leading to asset bubbles.

Source: https://baodaknong.vn/cac-linh-vuc-nao-dang-hut-von-tin-dung-255535.html