Relying on a 'pragmatic marriage', Mr. Erdogan is not afraid of a bad economy?

Thanks to the Russian-Turkish 'pragmatic marriage', Mr. Erdogan is not afraid of a bad economy? (Source: Getty Images)

Turkey's longest-serving leader has won what is believed to be the most important election in the country's 100-year modern history. The 69-year-old also weathered Turkey's worst economic crisis in a generation and a most powerful opposition coalition, on his way to winning the toughest election.

BAnkara's balancing trick

Observers commented that in the latest successes of the Turkish President, there is a "shadow" of his good relationship with Russian President Putin, especially since the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict.

Türkiye's struggling economy is benefiting from a deferral of payments for energy imports from Russia. This is one of the important factors that helped Mr. Erdogan be bolder with his campaign pledges in the past election.

Russia is currently one of the important sources of human and financial resources for the Turkish economy. Over the past year, among Russians coming to Turkey, many are buying properties, sending their money outside of Moscow's sanctioned economy, or opening businesses. Last year alone, the Russians opened 1.363 new companies in Türkiye.

To some extent, the new arrivals of Russians have - at least temporarily - changed the face of Turkish cities, such as Istanbul or Antalya. Rents have skyrocketed, cafes are crowded and even billboards are sometimes written in Cyrillic and most importantly natural gas prices have remained low.

For Turkey, maintaining and even deepening ties with Russia, but at the same time maintaining its position as one of the "voice" members of NATO is a difficult balancing act but very necessary. And it is Turkey's secret to balancing Russia and the West that makes Ankara especially important no matter which side it stands on.

Türkiye is squeezed between Iran and the West, has a land border with Syria; controls the only sea exit of the Black Sea and has maritime borders with both Ukraine and Russia. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Turkey has sought to support both Ukraine's military efforts – though not a game changer, and Russia's economy, which is "stumbling" by the war. a series of "suffocating" sanctions from the West.

On its northern coast, Turkey tries to mediate the Grain Transport Agreement, so that Ukraine's agricultural products can move smoothly out of the Black Sea ports. On the other side, Ankara increased its purchases of gas and oil from Russia, helping Moscow reduce the impact of sanctions from the West.

For Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the middle position became a "bargain" born of geopolitical, political and economic needs that helped him weather the most challenging election yet. for him personally.

Russia-Türkiye mutually beneficial

“Russia and Türkiye are a pragmatic marriage,” said Alper Coskun, a senior fellow at the Foundation for International Peace. It's certainly not an easy marriage, though.

Not to mention political issues, only in terms of economics, especially since Moscow launched a special military operation in Ukraine, Russia has supported the Turkish economy with huge capital flows, even targeting the Turkish economy. Turn a blind eye to Ankara's "limited" military support for Kiev. The two countries are currently negotiating the possibility of reducing gas prices, and Ankara has asked Russia to postpone gas payments until 2024 - providing at least a temporary source of economic support.

Of course, this is a two-way street. For the Kremlin, isolated by a series of Western sanctions, Türkiye has become a financial safe haven. Last year, trade between the two countries was estimated at $70 billion, of which Turkey is one of Russia's largest trading partners.

At the same time, hundreds of Western companies are trying to circumvent sanctions by opening offices in Türkiye to continue trading with Russia, the newspaper said. Hurriyet Daily News news.

Sheet Hurriyet Daily News "Although Mr. Erdogan has not always been a reliable partner of Moscow, President Putin hardly has a better choice at this time," said Mr.

For Türkiye, pragmatism is also prominent in their choices. Geographically and militarily, Turkey is part of the Western bloc and an important ally of the West, but economically, Turkey has no choice but to cooperate with Russia. "If Russia cuts off the gas route to Türkiye, it will be a disaster," said Kerim Has, an independent Russia expert in Moscow.

"Similarly, if the Turkish economy collapses, European banks will also suffer as they suffer from Ankara's huge loans."

Experts say that, at the present time, in Russia-Turkey relations, although there are still many political and economic problems, President Erdogan has adapted and recognized Russia as an important partner. However, like all marriages, whether pragmatic or not, no one can predict what lies ahead, not even President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or his Russian counterpart, Putin.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with a long history of overcoming crises, won the race on May 28 to extend his time in office into a third decade.

However, the Turkish economy is in recession; The local currency, the lira, soon fell into free fall and the annual inflation rate hit 85% last year. Capital Economics warned that the "decisive day for the Turkish economy and financial markets may be approaching". Analysts say this is the most immediate test for Erdogan.

Perhaps the latest good news for President Erdogan is that the World Bank (WB) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have just announced an increase in their growth forecast in 2023 for the Turkish economy with believe in the new Cabinet and the reform of his economic team.

Accordingly, in the latest Global Economic Outlook, the Turkish economy is expected to grow 3,2% this year, up from the 2,7% forecast made in January. The OECD expects the Turkish economy to grow 1%, up from 3,6% forecast in March, according to the latest Economic Outlook report just released. Despite headwinds, Turkey's economy remained resilient in the first quarter and remained a major contributor to growth in Europe and Central Asia, the World Bank said.