What should investors do when the VN-Index is in an accumulation phase?

During the trading week of September 9-13, the VN-Index fluctuated sideways around the 1,250-1,270 point range, with the 1,250 point support level being tested twice. Selling pressure dominated the market, with corrections occurring in 4 out of 5 sessions.

At the close of the trading week, the VN-Index stood at 1,251.71 points, down 22.2 points (-1.75%) from the end of the previous week. The VN30-Index fell 3.31 points (0.26%), to 1,294.3 points.

On the Hanoi Stock Exchange, at the close of trading on September 13th, the HNX-Index stood at 232.42 points, up 0.51 points (0.22%); the HNX30-Index closed at 504.13 points after a slight increase of 1.45 points (0.29%).

The VN-Index is currently in a consolidation phase for a year-end rally. Experts suggest that investors should take advantage of this period to increase their stock holdings around the 1,250-point support level, prioritizing sectors with positive growth prospects. (Illustrative image.)

Liquidity decreased sharply, with particularly low trading volumes in the last two trading sessions of the week. By the end of the week, the average trading volume on the Ho Chi Minh City stock exchange reached 497 million shares (-20.69%), equivalent to 12,335 billion VND (-21.16%) in transaction value. Foreign investors net sold 1,122 billion VND.

The Vietnamese stock market continued to experience a quiet trading week, reflecting caution ahead of key macroeconomic developments, including the upcoming interest rate meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in the middle of next week, with forecasts suggesting the Fed may conduct its first interest rate cut this year.

In addition, the market is waiting to see the State Bank's reaction following the Fed's interest rate cut and Typhoon Yagi's landfall in the North, which disrupted the production and business activities of some enterprises.

In this context, experts at Vietnam Construction Securities Joint Stock Company observe that cautious sentiment is growing as the index has failed to conquer the 1,300-point mark on its fourth attempt.

Given the current developments, the market is likely to continue trading sideways within a narrow range, searching for an equilibrium point. Investors should limit further purchases, prioritizing an observational stance and waiting for shares to be credited to their accounts when profits are available before increasing their holdings.

"In terms of long-term trends, we still expect the market to soon break through the 1,300-point mark in the near future, given that the Vietnamese economy is growing beyond expectations and the State Bank of Vietnam is signaling a loosening of monetary policy to support economic growth," predicted an expert from Vietnam Construction Securities Joint Stock Company.

Meanwhile, the team of experts at VNDirect Securities Joint Stock Company "maintains a positive view on the prospects of the Vietnamese stock market in the latter part of the year and the scenario of the VN-Index surpassing the 1,300-point mark this year is entirely feasible thanks to supporting factors such as the Fed's expected reduction of the policy interest rate by about 0.75% in the final months of the year."

Easing exchange rate and inflationary pressures have allowed the State Bank of Vietnam to shift its focus to prioritizing economic growth, increasing the money supply, and maintaining low interest rates; the business performance of listed companies continues to improve; and there is new progress in the market upgrade plan.

At the same time, past experience shows that "market peaks always appear during periods of high trading activity and market bottoms form when market liquidity is low."

Therefore, the VN-Index is currently in a consolidation phase for a year-end rally, and investors should take advantage of this period to increase their stock holdings around the 1,250-point support level, prioritizing sectors with positive growth prospects for the end of the year such as banking, securities, import-export (textiles, seafood, wood products), and industrial real estate.

An Ha

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/chi-so-vn-index-trong-giai-doan-tich-luy-nha-dau-tu-can-lam-gi-post312469.html