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The third round of talks between Somalia and Ethiopia, mediated by Türkiye, originally scheduled for September 2nd and rescheduled for September 17th, has been postponed again, highlighting the uncertain future of resolving the escalating dispute between the two Horn of Africa nations.

Somalia and Ethiopia are locked in a tense dispute over the Berbera port in the breakaway Somaliland region. (Source: AFP)

No official reason has been given for the delay. However, according to Turkiye Today, this may stem from comments by Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi that his country might consider supporting Ethiopian rebel groups if Addis Ababa proceeds with the controversial land lease agreement with Somaliland.

Relations between Somalia and Ethiopia began to deteriorate in January 2024, when Addis Ababa signed a preliminary agreement with Somaliland – a breakaway region in northwestern Somalia – allowing Ethiopia to conduct commercial and military operations in Somaliland's Berbera port area for 50 years. In return, Ethiopia became the first country to recognize Somaliland as an independent state.

Somalia called the agreement illegal, retaliating against Addis Ababa by expelling its ambassador and threatening to expel thousands of Ethiopian soldiers stationed in Somalia to help fight Islamist militants. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud declared before the country's parliament that he "will not stand idly by while his sovereignty is violated."

Meanwhile, Ethiopia described the agreement as "historic" because it "will pave the way for realizing the country's aspirations to secure access to the sea and diversify access to seaports."

As one of Africa's most populous countries (over 124 million people), Ethiopia's economy is constrained by its lack of access to the sea. The East African nation was cut off from the Gulf of Aden after a three-decade war that led to Eritrea's secession in 1993, taking with it the entire former Ethiopian coastline. Since then, Ethiopia has relied heavily on its neighbor Djibouti for port operations.

Several countries and international organizations have spoken out about the controversial agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland. The African Union, the European Union, Türkiye, and the United States have all issued statements calling on Ethiopia to respect Somalia's sovereignty. The Arab League has also urged Ethiopia to “abide by the rules and principles of good neighborliness.” The Intergovernmental Development Agency (IGAD), the trade bloc of East African nations, declined to take sides but called on all parties to resolve the issue amicably.

Having both gained independence from Britain and Italy, Somalia and Somaliland merged in 1960 to form a single republic. In 1991, Somaliland separated from Somalia after a devastating war that affected both sides. For over 30 years, Somalia has considered Somaliland an integral part of its territory. To this day, no international organization has recognized Somaliland's independence, despite the region adopting an independent constitution in 2001.

Therefore, Ethiopia's signing of the land lease agreement and recognition of Somaliland has pushed relations between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu further to the brink of war. Meanwhile, both countries are facing significant domestic instability. Somalia is engaged in a protracted war with the al-Shabab Islamist militant group, while Ethiopia is grappling with the aftermath of the Tigray War and instability in the Amhara region in the north of the country.

After two rounds of negotiations yielded no breakthroughs and no new round could be resumed despite mediation efforts by Türkiye – a close ally of Somalia – public opinion fears that this could trigger a new armed conflict between the two countries. Gunfire in this already volatile region could draw Somaliland into the fray, leading to renewed chaos in the Horn of Africa, a region already plagued by underlying issues.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/cang-thang-somalia-ethiopia-chua-thao-duoc-kip-no-286858.html