According to experts, to realize this goal, Vietnam needs to clearly identify growth drivers, remove institutional bottlenecks, maintain macroeconomic stability, and create a favorable environment for businesses to develop.
Conclusion No. 18-KL/TW of the 2nd Conference of the Central Committee of the 14th Party Congress on the Plan for socio-economic development, national finance and public borrowing and repayment, and medium-term public investment for the 5 years 2026-2030, linked to the goal of achieving double-digit growth, affirms the resolute determination to achieve high growth in the coming years; contributing to the successful implementation of the strategic goals set forth in the Resolution of the 14th Party Congress.
In the first quarter of 2026, GDP growth reached 7.83% – a positive result given the volatile global economic environment impacting the Vietnamese economy. However, this growth rate is still significantly lower than the target set in Government Resolution 01/NQ-CP on the main tasks and solutions for implementing the socio-economic development plan and state budget estimates for 2026. Specifically, to achieve double-digit economic growth, Resolution 01/NQ-CP set GDP growth targets of 9.1% in the first quarter, 9.7% in the second quarter, 9.9% in the third quarter, and 10.4% in the fourth quarter, aiming for a 10% growth rate for the whole year.
Accordingly, in order to achieve double-digit growth in 2026, given that the first quarter of 2026 saw lower-than-targeted growth, Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong, Director of the Statistics Department ( Ministry of Finance ), suggested that GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026 must reach 10.5%; the third quarter 10.6%; and the fourth quarter 10.74%.
Achieving the above scenario is extremely challenging. Conclusion 18-KL/TW of the 2nd Conference of the 14th Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam also clearly states that, entering the 2026-2030 period, the global context continues to change rapidly, strongly, and unpredictably, requiring the consolidation and effective promotion of growth drivers.
Also discussing the challenges to achieving double-digit growth in 2026 and the entire 2026-2030 period, Dr. Can Van Luc stated: The complex global political situation could have a profound impact on an economy with a high degree of openness, heavily dependent on exports, foreign investment, and external trade like Vietnam. Therefore, achieving a growth target of around 10% this year is very challenging, even difficult.
Commenting on the drivers of double-digit economic growth, Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong stated that there are five main drivers. Public investment continues to be the seed capital driving long-term production capacity. Public investment in 2026 will focus on mega infrastructure projects such as: Long Thanh Airport, high-speed railway, ring road cluster, expressway, Olympic Sports City… creating a very strong ripple effect.
"This is not just simple government spending, but a process of accumulating production for the economy, helping to reduce logistics costs, stimulating FDI and private investment flows into satellite areas surrounding new infrastructure," a representative from the General Statistics Office stated.
Furthermore, domestic consumption is projected to improve thanks to wage reform policies and domestic consumption stimulus policies implemented by provinces and cities nationwide. The strong activation of purchasing power from a market of over 100 million people will create momentum for the development of service, accommodation, food and beverage, and e-commerce sectors, ensuring that the domestic economic cycle does not stagnate when exports face difficulties.
Flexible fiscal policy, alongside monetary policy, will also be an effective risk management tool. Proactively using fuel tax instruments and the Price Stabilization Fund acts as a "safety valve" to prevent cost-push inflation. By curbing the rise in energy prices, the government directly supports profit margins for transportation and manufacturing businesses, preventing a ripple effect on the cost of living, thereby protecting people's purchasing power and macroeconomic stability.
The impetus from digital technology and AI will help enhance internal capabilities. The application of AI and automation is not just a trend but has become a mandatory tool. In the context of fluctuating input material prices, technology helps manufacturing businesses shift from labor-intensive to knowledge-intensive, directly improving Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and creating new growth opportunities from digital business models.
If the advantages of FTAs are fully exploited, the potential in export industries will be a driving force for growth. This potential lies not only in the volume of orders but also in the ability to move up to higher segments in the global value chain. Leveraging FTAs and the wave of supply chain shifts, key industries such as electronics, components, and green textiles will act as "drivers" of foreign exchange, helping to stabilize the balance of payments and promote industrial production to maintain stable growth.
Besides clearly identifying the driving forces, Dr. Can Van Luc believes that, to achieve double-digit GDP growth, another important issue is the need to continue removing bottlenecks and barriers, especially in institutions and policies. Currently, a large number of projects remain stalled and unresolved. Although the previous government has addressed a significant portion of these, continuing to definitively resolve the remaining issues is essential to free up resources for the economy and strengthen the confidence of the people and businesses in the reform process.
Finally, it is essential to remain steadfast in the goal of macroeconomic stability. In the context of a rapidly changing and unpredictable international environment, maintaining macroeconomic stability will be a crucial foundation for sustaining sustainable growth.
Source: https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/dong-luc-cho-tang-truong-kinh-te-2-con-so-20260501102220528.htm
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