The report from ICO confirmed the decline in exports from Asia, as Vietnam, India and Indonesia combined recorded a decline of about 31.20% year-on-year, mainly due to a 39.50% drop in exports from Vietnam in December.
Coffee price today 11/2/2025
World coffee prices increased sharply in the first session of the week. Arabica coffee prices continued to set a new record at 429.05 US Cents/lb while robusta also increased sharply by 110 USD/ton.
Domestic coffee prices today are trading in the range of 129,200 - 130,200 VND/kg.
Arabica coffee prices have risen for several consecutive sessions and reached a new record as coffee farmers in the leading producing country, Brazil, are reluctant to sell, while roasters are still short of supply and want to buy more. The market is concerned about low inventories in the world's major suppliers, with particular concern about Brazil - which produces nearly half of the world's Arabica coffee.
However, traders also believe that the price increase of Arabica coffee is somewhat no longer a true reflection of the fundamentals of the market. Financial speculative buying during this period of instability has brought huge resources to the coffee and gold exchanges, helping the two commodities to increase continuously since the beginning of the year.
The upward trend in coffee prices has been observed since November 2024. This is not only a phenomenon that is easily visible in Brazil – the world's leading coffee exporter, accounting for nearly 40%, followed by Vietnam at about 17% and then Colombia.
Brazil’s harvest broke records in 2020, but subsequent years have been less favorable and have been affected by weather. In 2021, a frost wiped out nearly a quarter of the arabica crop. There was no recovery in 2022 as the crop had not yet recovered from a severe frost. In 2023, the crop was hit by El Niño, with a long period of drought and high temperatures. Finally, in 2024, La Niña hit the coffee crop, with prolonged rains.
The combination of four years of unfavorable production, climate issues and rising global demand explains this spike in coffee prices. In total, over the past four years, raw coffee prices have increased by 224% and retail coffee prices have increased by 110%. Last year, consumer price volatility for roasted and ground coffee was 37.4%.
Coffee prices will continue to rise in the coming weeks, at least until this year’s harvest, which begins around April or May, the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association said. The main reason behind the price increase is climate issues affecting the harvest. Higher global consumption and the emergence of a new consumer market in China will play a significant role.
This impact on prices is expected to continue for another two or three months. After that, prices are likely to slow down for a while, with some stabilization. However, the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association estimates that prices will only decline during next year's harvest.
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| Domestic coffee prices on February 11 decreased by 500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: YouTube) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the first trading session of the week (February 10), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in March 2025 increased by 110 USD, trading at 5,671 USD/ton. The delivery in May 2025 increased by 133 USD, trading at 5,697 USD/ton. Average trading volume.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange, delivery term March 2025 increased sharply by 24.70 cents, trading at 429.05 cents/lb. Meanwhile, delivery term May 2025 increased by 24.40 cents, trading at 421.10 cents/lb. Trading volume is high.
Domestic coffee prices on February 11 decreased by 500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
Although China is not currently the largest coffee consuming market in the world, the demand for coffee products and annual sales continue to increase.
Over the past 20 years, the Chinese market has undergone rapid change. In 2021, the Chinese coffee market grew by 31% year-on-year and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.63% during 2022-2025.
China is one of the fastest growing coffee markets in the world. As the number of Chinese coffee consumers continues to increase, the coffee sector will generate $15.34 billion in revenue by 2022. The average coffee consumption per person will reach 0.07 kg in 2022.
China imports most of its coffee from Africa and South America. Brazilian coffee exporter Cecafe said shipments to China nearly tripled in 2023, surpassing 1 million bags for the first time, making China the eighth-largest market.
The US Department of Agriculture estimates that China will consume 5 million bags of coffee in the 2023-2024 crop year, making it the world's seventh-largest coffee consumer.
China's coffee consumption is relatively low compared to the US and Brazil, which consume more than 20 million bags per year. However, the growing demand for coffee shows that China is facing a cultural change similar to many other tea-loving Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea. Analysts predict that the growing "thirst" for coffee in China will be a driving force for coffee import and export activities in the future when not only Beijing and Shanghai but many other cities in the country start to trade this beverage.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-1122025-gia-ca-phe-tang-vot-tren-tat-ca-cac-thi-truong-ly-do-gia-tang-dot-bien-va-xu-huong-van-di-len-303823.html
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