| Coffee price forecast for June 19, 2024: Will coffee prices rebound? Coffee price forecast for June 20, 2024: Will domestic coffee prices "plunge"? |
Coffee prices in the domestic market are forecast to reverse and increase on June 21, 2024. According to a recent assessment by the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), domestic coffee supply is now almost depleted, with low inventories held by businesses and farmers. Therefore, exports from now until the end of the season (September 2024) will gradually decrease, despite coffee prices remaining at record highs.
In fact, data from the General Department of Customs shows that Vietnam's coffee exports in May 2024 reached 95,000 tons, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline in export volume. Overall, in the first eight months of the 2023/2024 crop year (October 2023 to May 2024), Vietnam exported nearly 1.2 million tons of coffee, equivalent to 80% of the current crop year's production and a 7% decrease compared to the same period of the previous crop year.
This indicates that the domestic coffee supply will be limited between now and the start of the new crop year.
Domestic coffee prices, updated at 4:30 AM on June 20, 2024, according to www.giacaphe.com, are in the range of 119,000-120,000 VND/kg. The average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is currently 119,900 VND/kg, with the highest price in Dak Nong province at 120,000 VND/kg.
Specifically, the purchase price of coffee in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 119,800 VND/kg, while in Pleiku and La Grai it is 119,700 VND/kg; in Kon Tum province the price is 119,800 VND/kg; and in Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 120,000 VND/kg.
In Lam Dong province, in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, and Lam Ha, the price of bulk green coffee beans (green coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) is 118,800 VND/kg.
Today's coffee prices (June 20th) in Dak Lak province are as follows: in Cu M'gar district, coffee is being purchased at approximately 119,800 VND/kg, while in Ea H'leo district and Buon Ho town, it is being purchased at the same rate of 119,700 VND/kg.
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| London Robusta coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com) |
Specifically, the price of Robusta coffee futures contracts for July 2024 delivery on the London exchange was $4,185 per ton, up $77 from the start of the trading session. The September 2024 contract was $4,024 per ton, up $30; the November 2024 contract was $3,869 per ton, up $17; and the January 2025 contract was $3,702 per ton, down $2.
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| New York Arabica coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com) |
Similarly, Arabica coffee prices on the New York exchange today, at 8:30 PM on June 20, 2024, increased across all contract periods, fluctuating between 228.85 and 233.95 cents/lb.
Specifically, the September 2024 delivery contract was 233.95 cents/lb, up 7.70 cents/lb from the start of the session. The December 2024 contract was 231.90 cents/lb, up 7.05 cents/lb; the March 2024 contract was 230.50 cents/lb, up 6.80 cents/lb; and the May 2025 contract was 228.85 cents/lb, up 6.75 cents/lb.
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| Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com) |
Brazilian Arabica coffee prices today, at 8:30 PM on June 20, 2024, showed a slight increase. Specifically, the July 2024 delivery contract was $283.90/ton; the September 2024 contract was $286.25/ton (up 7.70%); the December 2024 contract was $282.65/ton (up 9.45%); and the March 2025 contract was $271.80/ton.
Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe exchange (London exchange) opens at 4:00 PM and closes at 12:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.
Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York exchange) opens at 4:15 PM and closes at 1:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.
For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil exchange, trading hours will be from 7:00 PM to 2:35 AM (the following day), Vietnam time.
The market's "one-horse race" has helped Robusta prices on the London exchange rebound sharply. However, according to experts, all three key market participants still hold significant long positions, promising further liquidation of their long positions. Continued selling will destabilize the market for the remainder of July.
According to the ICO report, global coffee exports in April reached 12 million bags, a 16.8% increase compared to the same period last year. For the first seven months of the 2023/24 crop year (October 2023 to April 2024), exports totaled nearly 81 million bags; an 11.1% increase (8.1 million bags) compared to the same period of the 2022/23 crop year.
In May 2024, Robusta and Arabica prices on the world market decreased compared to the end of April 2024 due to forecasts of increased coffee production in Brazil.
Drought and pest infestations have severely impacted coffee yields in many areas. Vietnam's coffee production for the 2023/24 crop year is estimated to decrease by 20% compared to the previous year, falling to 1.47 million tons – the lowest in four years, putting pressure on Robusta supply in the world market.
Coffee prices on the world market are generally under downward pressure as the new crop harvest in Brazil enters its peak phase. This has led the market to expect a new shipment from Brazil, especially Arabica coffee, helping to alleviate the supply pressure that has lasted for months.
Meanwhile, Robusta coffee prices are still being supported mainly by concerns about supply shortages from Vietnam. This is also the main driving force behind the overall coffee market recovery after the sharp decline in mid-May.
This information is for reference only. Prices may vary depending on the location.
Source: https://www.vietnam.vn/gia-ca-phe-tiep-tiep-neo-cao/
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