Rice prices have plummeted, leaving farmers worried about losing their Lunar New Year celebrations.

Many rice businesses predict that rice prices will continue to fall and have requested the government to promptly purchase and stockpile rice to prevent further price drops and support farmers – Photo: BUU DAU

According to businesses, India has reopened its rice exports, while Vietnam's two traditional rice export markets, the Philippines and Indonesia, have not yet purchased rice, leading to a drop in rice prices and consequently a sharp decline in domestic paddy prices.

Rice prices fall, traders abandon deposits.

Ms. Nguyen Thi Xieu (Khanh Binh Tay Bac commune, Tran Van Thoi district, Ca Mau province) said that the price of ST24 rice has dropped to only 7,500 VND/kg, and traders are not even willing to buy it. Many traders have even forfeited their deposits when they saw the price of rice fall so sharply.

"If the price had been as high as last year, we would have had a big Lunar New Year celebration, but unexpectedly, the rice price has plummeted. Traders had already put down deposits on over 1.5 hectares of land for this rice crop, but because the price dropped so drastically, they abandoned their deposits and disappeared," lamented Mrs. Xieu.

According to Mr. Tran Thu Em (Tran Van Thoi district), who owns 2 hectares of winter-spring rice that will be harvested after Tet, with the current rice prices, farmers are not making a profit due to increased costs, including the rising prices of fertilizers and pesticides.

“With ST24 rice priced at only 7,000 VND/kg, there’s no profit. Hopefully, the price will go up again after Tet, because with this downward trend, this year’s rice crop will be unprofitable. Farmers are already struggling due to reduced rice yields and now they’re facing falling prices, making it difficult to reinvest in the next crop,” said Mr. Thu Em.

Mr. Le Van Mua, chairman of the board of directors of Thoi Binh Rice and Shrimp Service Cooperative, said that although organic rice and shrimp prices have decreased less than in rice-specialized farming areas, ST24 rice is still only being bought by traders at about 8,000 VND/kg, a decrease of more than 3,000 VND/kg compared to the same period last year.

"Farmers are harvesting in large quantities, but prices are falling, so many are inclined to sell off their rice at bargain prices, which only makes them more vulnerable to price manipulation by traders. I think the government needs a policy to purchase and temporarily stockpile rice to prevent further price drops and alleviate pressure on farmers," Mr. Mua suggested.

For the early winter-spring rice crop in 2025, Ca Mau province has over 35,220 hectares. Of that, Tran Van Thoi district planted the most with over 28,900 hectares, and about 1,000 hectares have been harvested so far.

According to Mr. Nguyen Viet Khai, deputy head of the Agriculture and Rural Development Department of Tran Van Thoi district, the price of rice is down by more than 2,000 VND/kg compared to a few months ago, so farmers' profits have also decreased.

Mr. Nguyen Thanh Dien, deputy head of the Agriculture and Rural Development Department of An Minh district, Kien Giang province, said that the locality mainly grows ST24, ST25 and Dai Thom 8 rice varieties, but the price of ST24 and ST25 rice has dropped to 9,700 VND/kg, a decrease of 1,300 VND/kg compared to the same period last year.

Meanwhile, the price of Muc Ruoi Do rice (salt-tolerant rice) and Dai Thom 8 rice fluctuates around 6,700 – 6,800 VND/kg, a decrease of 1,200 VND/kg. "Overall, farmers' profits will be lower than last year, but they will still make a small profit," Mr. Dien said.

Will rice prices continue to fall?

According to the leader of a rice export business in Dong Thap province, the sharp drop in rice prices is due to the Philippines halting rice purchases for over a month, while India has reopened its rice exports. However, the price of fragrant rice is currently fluctuating between 6,400 and 6,500 VND/kg, still higher than before India banned rice exports.

"After January 15th, the Philippines will announce whether or not they will continue buying rice. Therefore, farmers should temporarily stop selling rice and wait. The government should also implement a policy of temporary stockpiling to keep prices stable at the current level," this person said, adding that the company still has tens of thousands of tons of rice exported under old contracts and has not signed any new export contracts.

The company continues to offer export rice prices without interruption, but it's difficult to secure new orders. "I think the price of fragrant rice will remain at 6,500 VND/kg from now until after Tet (Lunar New Year), and it's unlikely to go any lower. However, at this price, farmers are still making a profit; they haven't suffered losses yet," this person affirmed.

Speaking to Tuổi Trẻ newspaper, Mr. Phạm Thái Bình, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Trung An High-Tech Agriculture Joint Stock Company (Cần Thơ City), acknowledged that rice prices have fallen sharply compared to the past two years, while the amount of rice available is not large, mainly consisting of the main crop and early winter-spring rice, which are in small quantities. However, the sharp drop in rice prices inevitably leads to a deep decline in paddy prices.

"India had a bumper crop and opened up exports. Several other countries had bumper harvests, while two traditional customers, the Philippines and Indonesia, haven't bought rice yet, so world rice prices have fallen, leading to a sharp drop in paddy prices."

"In my opinion, rice prices will continue to fall between now and Tet (Lunar New Year), because most Vietnamese businesses haven't signed new contracts yet. Businesses need to secure new contracts before they dare to buy rice from farmers," Mr. Binh said.

According to Mr. Binh, the industry's development is unsustainable, so rice prices will fluctuate from time to time and place to place. Even during peak harvest season, if there is no market, the price of rice will naturally fall. Vietnam exports rice year-round.

"However, if we want to develop the rice industry sustainably, we need to consider the issue of temporary storage when domestic rice prices fall sharply, so that we don't run out of rice to sell when prices rise," Mr. Binh said.

According to businesses, if they have sufficient capital, they will stockpile goods to be prepared for export. They will not export when prices are low, and will only sell when prices are high.

"If businesses have access to capital, they will proactively export; otherwise, they will have to sell off their produce at rock-bottom prices to repay bank loans. Therefore, developing a sustainable rice industry is essential to avoid the recurring cycle of falling prices we are seeing now," said one business owner.

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/gia-lua-giam-manh-nong-dan-lo-mat-tet-20250115223414301.htm