According to more than 30 economists surveyed by the Financial Times and Chicago Booth, the US Federal Reserve (FED) will be forced to keep interest rates higher than expected in a persistent inflation situation, and is expected to There are only a maximum of two cuts in 2, with the first coming between July and September.
If this forecast comes true, the cuts will be slower than previously expected in financial markets, where traders expect three cuts this year, with the first expected. is expected to take place in June or July, based on a previous survey on Bloomberg.
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Mr. Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Fed. Photo source: Mark Schiefelbein, AP Photo |
Previously, in an interview with Yahoo Finance, Cleveland FED President Loretta Mester also predicted that the FED would have three interest rate cuts by 3, but this could change after its regular meeting on September 2024. March 19 and 20 are here. On the contrary, Mr. Raphael Bostic - Chairman of the Atlanta FED branch expects two cuts, according to information in Bloomberg.
Facing the rapidly increasing inflation situation, speaking to the Financial Times, professor Evi Pappa, at Carlos III University in Madrid, said that FED Chairman Jerome Powell could wait until inflation has dropped to 2%. announced interest rate cuts, instead of relying on previous forecasts.
On the contrary, Mr. Hilde Bjørnland - professor of economics at BI Norwegian Business School, said that US economic growth could affect the FED's willingness to cut interest rates, emphasizing that purchasing power in the US is stronger than in the US. European countries.
Also through the Financial Times, Mr. Vincent Reinhart - former FED official, currently head economist at Dreyfus and Mellon affirmed that the US presidential election in November will affect the timing of interest rate setting. capacity. “Although data shows that the best time to cut interest rates is September, the political golden time is June.” – Mr. Vincent Reinhart said.
The cuts may be later and less than expected, combined with the possibility of the FED keeping interest rates high, putting many investors in an unfavorable situation, especially with the gold market. Specifically, if interest rates do not decrease, it will lead to an increase in gold prices. On the other hand, gold is also an asset that does not yield interest, so the prospect of higher interest rates for longer will not be beneficial to gold prices.
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| Saigon Jewelry Company Limited (SJC) lists SJC gold prices, at 16:00 p.m. March 18, 3 |
Recorded at 16:18 p.m. on March 3, on Kitco, the world gold price was at 2.154 USD/ounce, down 1,6 USD compared to dawn. At the same time, in the country, Saigon Jewelry Company Limited (SJC) listed the buying price of SJC gold at 79,4 million VND/tael purchased and 81,42 million VND/tael sold. .
Recently, domestic gold prices have continuously fluctuated according to world gold prices, increasing and decreasing from several hundred to several million VND/tael within a day, making many investors feel insecure and worried. For example, on the afternoon of March 13, the price of gold bars decreased by 3 million VND/tael in the selling afternoon compared to the early morning and lost the mark of 2,7 million VND/tael, but only the next day it increased by nearly 80 million VND/tael. volume, returning to the threshold of 2 million VND.
In the current context, most experts advise that investors should not chase the market but should only buy when prices fall.
