Is the era of real estate speculation over?

VTV.vn - The increase in mortgage interest rates after the Lunar New Year is putting pressure on buyers and real estate businesses, and is causing strong market differentiation.

The increase in mortgage interest rates right after the Lunar New Year is having a clear impact on the real estate market, affecting homebuyers, real estate businesses, and the banking system. Experts believe this is not an unexpected development, but it will push the market into a more intense period of consolidation.

Interest rates on mortgages impact the real estate market.

Immediately after the Lunar New Year, both state-owned and private banks announced interest rate adjustments, with mortgage rates showing a significant increase. A survey at a Vietcombank branch in Ho Chi Minh City revealed that the lowest interest rate for loans to purchase apartments or townhouses with a certificate or sales contract is 9.5%. This is a significant increase compared to the 6% rate applied for 12 months from the middle of last year.

State-owned banks announced lending rates ranging from a low of 9% to over 13% for fixed-term loans of 6, 12, and 18 months.

Non-state-owned banks recorded similar fixed interest rates, but floating interest rates increased, ranging from 11-15%.

According to Ms. Mai Thanh Thao, Deputy Director of the Banking and Corporate Services Department at Savills Vietnam, the increase in home loan interest rates after Tet reflects a cyclical adjustment process within the banking system.

Following the peak disbursement period at the end of the year and the increased demand for loans at the beginning of the year, banks typically review their credit structure, balance capital costs, and adjust interest rates to suit risk appetites. Simultaneously, credit growth limits (credit room) also make banks more selective regarding new loans, especially in the real estate sector, which has a high risk coefficient.

Furthermore, the global monetary policy landscape, still influenced by the previous tightening trend, has led the domestic banking system to maintain a certain degree of caution. "This interest rate adjustment reflects a balance between the goal of credit growth and risk control, rather than a sudden tightening move for the real estate market," Ms. Thao said.

Homebuyers and businesses are under the most pressure.

For homebuyers, the increased cost of debt repayment directly impacts their monthly affordability. According to Mr. Vo Hong Tu, Director of Minh Tu Law Firm, a loan of approximately 900 million VND that previously could be repaid at 7-8 million VND per month can now increase to nearly 15 million VND with the application of a floating interest rate. This forces many households to postpone their home buying plans to ensure financial balance.

Savills also suggests that the group most affected is buyers with high financial leverage. As borrowing costs rise, buyers tend to be more cautious, considering products that fit their financial capabilities instead of withdrawing completely from the market. The demand for real estate remains, but purchasing decisions will become more carefully considered.

Meanwhile, for real estate businesses, the main pressure comes from capital costs and cash flow. Businesses that use high leverage or rely on quick sales to generate cash flow will face more difficulties. Conversely, businesses with a strong financial foundation, clean land reserves, and clear legal status are still able to maintain stable operations.

For investors using financial leverage, this period is particularly challenging. Short-term or "day trading" strategies using borrowed capital become riskier, forcing many investors to restructure their portfolios, or even accept selling at a loss to reduce debt repayment pressure.

According to experts, a high-interest rate environment also brings many risks to borrowers, especially those with loans that rely on short-term preferential interest rates.

Loan packages with low interest rates initially may see a sharp increase when they switch to floating rates, disrupting initial financial plans. Furthermore, banks now tend to value assets more cautiously, leading to lower loan-to-value ratios and forcing buyers to prepare larger amounts of their own capital.

Additionally, related costs such as early repayment fees, commitment fees, or insurance requirements also increase the actual total cost of borrowing.

From a systemic perspective, rising interest rates also expose banks to a higher risk of bad debt if borrowers experience cash flow difficulties. Therefore, credit institutions are tightening their approval criteria and carefully assessing the financial capacity of their customers.

Opportunities still exist for genuine homebuyers.

Although rising interest rates create short-term pressure, Savills believes this is not an unfavorable time for all buyers. In a more cautious market, homebuyers may have more opportunities to negotiate better prices, especially if they have a stable financial foundation and a reasonable loan-to-value ratio.

Experts recommend that buyers control their borrowing ratios, ensuring that repayments do not exceed their ability to pay and that they do not rely entirely on initial preferential interest rates. Prioritizing properties with clear legal status, practical usability, and good liquidity is also crucial to minimizing risk.

At the same time, borrowers should maintain a financial reserve equivalent to 6–12 months of repayment to cope with fluctuations in interest rates or income.

In the current context, the real estate market is entering a phase of clearer differentiation, where buyers and businesses with strong financial foundations will have an advantage, while investors heavily reliant on borrowed capital will face significant pressure. This is seen as a market adjustment towards greater sustainability, focusing on real needs and actual financial capacity.

Source: https://vtv.vn/het-thoi-luot-song-bat-dong-san-100260301105522287.htm