Does Iran want to show its hand?

Amidst Israel's ongoing campaign in Lebanon, which has stalled diplomatic efforts between Tehran and Washington, Iran's escalating move appears aimed at breaking the stalemate.

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Photo: Reuters .

According to CNN, the ceasefire agreement reached with Washington in April is trapping Iran in negotiations that have lasted over 100 days. The country's economy is struggling due to sanctions.

The US imposed a sea blockade, preventing Tehran from selling oil abroad and blocking access to its ports for essential goods.

Economic reports indicate that in just about a month and a half, pressure from the US has cost Iran nearly $6 billion in oil exports, forcing them to store much of their oil reserves on tankers anchored offshore.

Even during ceasefires, Iran continues to suffer sporadic attacks from the US. Meanwhile, Tehran's demands for Israel to withdraw its troops from Lebanon have largely been ignored as Israel continues to expand its operations.

CNN analysts suggest that Tehran now wants to break the deadlock by pressuring US President Donald Trump to quickly push for a definitive agreement, or face the risk of a costly war lasting for years.

'Tehran is neither abandoning the battlefield nor the negotiating table'

To reaffirm this resolve, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared on June 8th that Tehran's top priority is "national security and peace for the people."

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On social media platform X, he affirmed: " Diplomacy and defense are two pillars of national strength. We are not abandoning the battlefield, nor are we giving up the negotiating table."

Alongside its political pronouncements, Iran has asserted its military readiness to accept the risk of escalation to protect its ally by launching direct attacks on Israeli cities in retaliation for Hezbollah's actions.

"If they think that a 'controlled tension' strategy can limit Iran's response, they are mistaken," a military source told Tasnim , a news agency closely linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guard.

Speaking to CNN, Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting research fellow at the German Institute for Security and International Studies, said: "The immediate purpose of Iran's missile strike seems to be to force the parties to recognize the interconnectedness of the fronts, signaling that these conflicts cannot be separated. Washington cannot quietly ease pressure on Iran in the bilateral relationship while Israel remains free to act against Hezbollah."

On June 8, Fars news agency reported that the Iranian military had announced a halt to attacks on Israel, but with conditions attached, including a warning of more severe retaliation if Israel continued its airstrikes on Lebanon.

A statement released by Iranian state media said: “Yesterday’s attack on Israel was a warning to that country and its supporters. The Iranian armed forces have ceased military operations there. However, if acts of aggression continue – including in southern Lebanon – we will retaliate much more severely.”

This move comes shortly after President Trump demanded on social media platform Truth Social that Israel and Iran "cease fire immediately" in an effort to protect their fragile peace agreement.

The US side has clearly expressed its desire to reach an agreement, although Trump continues to send rather contradictory messages: on the one hand, threatening to resume the war, and on the other hand, asserting that the two sides are very close to an agreement.

Without war, there is no peace.

In response to Washington's call, Israel's Channel 12 quoted a senior Israeli official as saying that Israel had also temporarily suspended direct attacks on Iranian territory.

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However, this ceasefire was immediately shaken. Less than an hour after Iran's announcement, the NNA news agency reported that Israel was continuing its airstrikes on the villages of Az-Zrariyah, Arabsalim, and Kfar Tebnit in southern Lebanon.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said air raid sirens sounded in the northern region after three projectiles were fired at their forces from Lebanon. "Several projectiles were intercepted and one landed near IDF soldiers. There are no reports of casualties," the Israeli military stated, adding that Prime Minister Netanyahu needs to demonstrate that his decisions are aimed at "exerting maximum pressure on Hezbollah," and not simply following President Trump's wishes.

This uncertainty has led Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in international security at King's College London, to doubt the possibility of an early end to the conflict. He argues that despite all-out attacks, the situation in Iran seems to be stuck in a "neither war nor peace" state, as neither side is willing to compromise at the negotiating table.

Source: https://znews.vn/iran-muon-lat-bai-ngua-post1658110.html