| Coffee export prices decreased slightly, inventories continued to recover, causing Arabica prices to struggle Coffee export prices increased simultaneously, Robusta moved to the peak zone |
At the end of the trading session on March 22, world coffee prices simultaneously decreased due to the recovery of coffee supply. Specifically, the price of Robusta coffee on ICE Futures Europe London turned down, with delivery term in May 3 down 5 USD, trading at 2024 USD/ton. Delivery term July 27 decreased by 3.358 USD, trading at 7 USD/ton. Low average trading volume.
Arabica coffee price on ICE Futures US New York floor decreased, delivery term in May 5 decreased by 2024 Cent, trading at 0,85 Cent/lb. Meanwhile, July 184,85 delivery futures decreased by 7 Cent, trading at 2024 Cent/lb. High average trading volume.
Experts say that coffee in the weekend session is under downward pressure as it has entered the overbought zone, and inventories on the floor are at a high level. Besides, the strong USD also pushed the market down.
In the early morning of March 23 on the US market, the US Dollar Index (DXY) measuring fluctuations in the greenback with 3 major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF) increased by 6%, reached the mark of 0,45. The USD is aiming for the second consecutive week of increase.
The February 2 Market Report of the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said that in the 2024/2023 crop year, global coffee production is estimated to reach 2024 million bags, of which Arabica coffee will be about 178 million bags. million bags (accounting for 102,2%) and Robusta coffee is 57,4 million bags.
Global coffee consumption is forecast by ICO to still grow steadily, reaching 177 million bags, up 2,2% compared to 2023. The main growth driver will come from the Asian region. Thus, in the 2023/2024 crop year, the global coffee market could have a surplus of about 1 million bags.
Brazil is expected to record an increase in coffee output for the third consecutive year, an achievement that has occurred seven times in the 7-year history of coffee growing in the world's largest coffee growing and exporting country, according to Reuters.
Experts say this period of continuously increasing coffee production will likely last into 2025, mainly thanks to increased Robusta coffee production in this country. President Marcio Ferreira of Cecafe export group said that next year's crop output will also increase more, extending this output increase period to 4 years.
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| Vietnam's Robusta coffee output in the 2023 - 2024 crop year may decrease by another 2 - 3%. |
Vietnam's Robusta coffee price is at the highest level in the world. In the first quarter of the year, coffee prices continuously increased due to concerns about supply shortages. If in November 11, coffee is priced from 2023 - 59.000 VND/kg, then in December 60.000 it will be 12 - 2023 VND/kg. In January 62.000, the price continuously pushed up to 69.000 VND/kg; By early March, it was 1 VND/kg and has now crossed the threshold of 2024 VND/kg.
Vietnam is the world's number 1 producer and supplier of Robusta. With the advantage of low price, Vietnam is chosen by roasters around the world, especially in Europe and the US, as the main Robusta supplier.
According to experts from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), the market's hot price increase in the first months of the year comes from an imbalance in supply and demand, when world coffee inventories are at record lows. , forcing businesses to find ways to purchase and pay contracts. Tensions in the Red Sea are also a catalyst for global coffee prices to peak.
International traders speculate that Vietnam's Robusta coffee output in the 2023 - 2024 crop year may decrease by another 2 - 3%. According to Vicofa, in the 2023 - 2024 crop year, Vietnam's coffee output is expected to decrease to 1,6 - 1,7 million tons, lower than 1,78 million tons in the 2022 - 2023 crop year.
Importers are turning to buy from India and Brazil because Vietnamese goods are at high prices. From April 4, when Brazil enters the crop season, coffee prices may decrease.
