The price of gold is difficult to predict.

The domestic gold market experienced significant price fluctuations, but purchasing power did not surge dramatically.

By the end of February 3rd (the 6th day of the Lunar New Year), the price of SJC gold bars was listed by businesses at 87.5 million VND/ounce for buying and 89.5 million VND/ounce for selling, an increase of 700,000 VND per ounce compared to the previous day. The price of gold rings and gold jewelry also reached 89 million VND/ounce, the highest in many months.

Mainly price fluctuations

Domestic gold prices reached their peak for 2025 in early February as world prices surpassed all-time highs, at one point reaching $2,820 per ounce, before retreating to around $2,800 per ounce.

Observations of the Ho Chi Minh City gold market on the first working day after the Lunar New Year holiday showed a lack of activity, unlike the rush to buy gold seen in the preceding months. Commercial banks reported very few customers buying SJC gold bars. Many large stores of SJC, PNJ, DOJI , etc., were also quite deserted, with only a few customers coming to buy jewelry, gold bars, or 1-tael gold rings related to the Year of the Snake. Similarly, numerous gold shops in the Ben Thanh, Tan Dinh, and Thach Da market areas saw very few customers.

The Mi Hong gold shop (Binh Thanh district), Kim Thanh and Kim Phat I gold shops (Go Vap district) were particularly bustling. At these shops, people flocked to buy 24K gold necklaces and rings for both personal use and safekeeping. According to observations, the price of plain gold rings at these shops was commonly around 8.8 million VND per tael; gold bars shaped like snakes (symbolizing the Year of the Snake) also had similar prices, plus processing fees ranging from hundreds of thousands to several million VND per item.

According to staff at Kim Phat I gold shop, jewelry has been selling quite well in recent days. However, gold bars with images of the God of Wealth, Fortune, Prosperity, and Longevity, and snakes are selling very slowly. "This may be because the price of gold is currently too high, and it's not yet the God of Wealth Day on the 10th day of the first lunar month (February 7th), so many people who want to buy gold for good luck at the beginning of the year are still waiting," said the gold shop employee.

Some customers who bought gold bars with the characters "Tài" (Wealth), "Lộc" (Fortune), and "Phát" (Prosperity) from PNJ Company said the gold bars they received were processed in 2023. According to PNJ staff, due to the scarcity of raw gold this year, the company did not produce new gold bars for the God of Wealth Day but only sold gold bars with the characters "Tài" and "Lộc" that were left over from the previous year. The gold products introduced this Tet holiday are mainly collections of gold jewelry.

People buy gold jewelry at gold shops in Go Vap district (Ho Chi Minh City) on the morning of February 3. Photo: Thy Tho

What is the cause?

Regarding the sharp rise in gold prices over the past few weeks, analysts say that global gold prices surged and surpassed $2,800 per ounce after US President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imported goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. This has caused investors to worry about potential instability in financial markets (stocks, bonds, etc.) and other investment channels. As a result, many economic organizations have increased their demand for gold as a hedge against risk.

Gold expert Tran Duy Phuong said that while gold prices have surpassed their historical peak set in October 2024, they will not rise steadily to $2,900 per ounce as expected, but will fluctuate up and down at different times. Therefore, those buying gold after Tet and during the upcoming God of Wealth festival should be aware that gold prices have risen continuously for many weeks, and a sharp downward correction is very likely before a strong rebound.

Economist Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu predicts that gold prices will continue to fluctuate sharply in 2025. Both markets, gold bars and gold rings, will be affected, but gold rings will experience more significant price swings. Gold bars are currently under the control of the State Bank of Vietnam, making them less likely to experience sharp price fluctuations compared to gold rings.

Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu cited several international forecasts suggesting that the price of gold could rise to $3,000 per ounce. This would have a significant impact on domestic gold prices, especially gold rings. However, the fluctuations in world gold prices remain a major unknown, depending on the economic and monetary policies of the United States.

"If Donald Trump implements economic policies that lead to inflation in the US, the Federal Reserve (FED) may raise interest rates to control inflation. In that case, the value of the USD will increase, and the price of gold may decrease. Conversely, geopolitical fluctuations or foreign trade policies, such as the US imposing high tariffs on countries with trade surpluses, including Vietnam, could also affect the price of gold," Dr. Hieu analyzed.

One of the factors impacting the domestic gold market is the very limited supply of gold bars, leading to unmet demand. Over the past year, the State Bank of Vietnam has successfully controlled gold bar prices and quelled the gold rush of the previous year. However, demand for gold remains high, while supply has not improved.

We need to import raw gold.

Regarding gold supply, Shaokai Fan, Regional Director for Asia Pacific (excluding China) and Global Central Bank Director at the World Gold Council (WGC), citing information from the Vietnam Gold Business Association and research from Metal Focus, stated that the demand for gold jewelry in Vietnam ranges from 15-20 tons per year. Therefore, Vietnam must import raw gold to produce these 20 tons of jewelry. The Vietnam Gold Business Association has submitted a proposal to the State Bank of Vietnam regarding the import of raw gold.

"Decree 24/2012-ND-CP stipulates the conditions for the production and trading of gold jewelry. The restrictions on gold jewelry should be removed, and it should be treated as a normal commodity without any business conditions," Mr. Shaokai Fan stated.

Source: https://nld.com.vn/kho-doan-gia-vang-196250203203408406.htm