According to Mr. Do Thien Anh Tuan, a lecturer at the Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management, the investment capital challenge will become much more difficult in 2026. The growth target for the next five years has been raised to 10% per year, with inflation projected at 4.5% per year. To achieve the 40% GDP growth target and control inflation, total investment capital over five years could reach nearly 40 trillion VND. Of this, public investment is targeted to account for 20-22%, equivalent to approximately 8-9 trillion VND or 8-9% of GDP.
Delegates participating in the forum proposed solutions for mobilizing capital to fuel economic growth over the next five years.
PHOTO: THANH XUAN
To mobilize nearly 40 million billion VND in investment capital over the next five years, Mr. Do Thien Anh Tuan proposed the following: Firstly, public investment could be increased to approximately 10% of GDP, but it must focus on strategic infrastructure with high spillover effects, avoiding uncontrolled and scattered expansion. Secondly, bank credit should be maintained at a reasonable level, meeting approximately 12% of GDP for social investment, prioritizing production and limiting speculation. Thirdly, strongly reform the capital market, increasing the scale of mobilization through stocks and bonds to at least 4% of GDP. Fourthly, promote the private sector, improve the business environment, support startups, and increase the equity investment share to approximately 6% of GDP. Fifthly, strengthen the attraction of high-quality FDI, striving to contribute at least 6% of GDP to the total investment capital of the economy. Finally, developing new financial channels through international financial centers, fintech, and modern fundraising models aims to add approximately 0.5-1.0% of GDP to development investment over the next five years.
Speaking at the forum, Mr. Nguyen Phi Lan, Director of the Department of Forecasting, Statistics, and Monetary and Financial Stability (State Bank of Vietnam), stated that pressure on the financial and banking system is increasing as the gap between credit growth and capital mobilization tends to widen, while Vietnam's credit-to-GDP ratio is currently very high compared to many countries in the region. This reflects the economy's significant dependence on bank credit, while also posing risks to liquidity and the safety of credit institutions if external shocks occur or asset quality deteriorates. Given the limited room for maneuver in monetary policy compared to previous periods, there is a need for a more balanced development between the money market and the capital market, diversification of capital channels for the economy, and a gradual reduction in excessive reliance on bank credit.
"Businesses need to change their mindset of being overly dependent on bank loans and proactively diversify their funding sources through the stock market, corporate bond market, investment funds, public-private partnerships, and other medium- and long-term capital raising methods. Developing a balance between bank credit and other capital channels will not only help businesses improve their financial resilience but also contribute to reducing pressure on the banking system and increasing the sustainability of the economy," said Mr. Nguyen Phi Lan.
Source: https://thanhnien.vn/khoi-von-cho-tang-truong-hai-con-so-185260520170814591.htm
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