Economic growth in the first 6 months of the year in Ho Chi Minh City is estimated to increase by 3,55%. Although just stopping at the forecast, the "economic locomotive" is showing that it has regained its growth momentum after the first quarter of the year was not very positive. The city is also placing high expectations on a specific mechanism to help unlock social resources and create new motivations.
Positive signals
As early as 6am, a number of markets in Thu Duc City were crowded with buyers and sellers. This is the peak time of the year, many shops sell a variety of fruit products such as durian, mangosteen, rambutan, mango, Luc Ngan lychee...
Ms. Thu, a small trader in the market next to the apartment building of the Ministry of Public Security, said that the fruit is in season, so she imports and sells every day, the quantity is abundant and the price is reasonable. Customers like to buy specialty fruits that are blooming like Luc Ngan lychee or western rambutan, every day she sells hundreds of kilograms.
Not only at the local markets, supermarkets or commercial centers are also spending a lot of space to display and sell specialty fruits that are in the harvest season. Some large supermarket chains also carry out stimulus programs with deep discounts on weekends to attract buyers. MM Mega Market supermarket sells Ri6 durian for only 70.000 VND/kg or Co.op Food sells Hoa Loc mango for only 40.000 VND/kg.
The city continues to deploy many programs to stimulate consumption, such as Fruit Week "On the dock under the boat" in District 8, scheduled to take place in mid-June; or the country market "Sweet flowers and fruits in the Steel Land in 6" in Cu Chi district...
Ho Chi Minh City's efforts in stimulating domestic purchasing power are undeniable. This is also reflected in the report of the Ho Chi Minh City Department of Statistics with the first 5 months of the year, the total retail sales of goods increased by 9,4% over the same period. The growth of domestic purchasing power is considered a bright spot of the economy when export activities decline. Some commercial and service sectors saw positive changes, such as retailing of household appliances, up by 6,5%; retail phone, computer, electronic components increased by 8,4%; travel services increased by 12%; accommodation and food services increased by 7,9%…
Along with that, many other indicators of the city's economy also increased. The index of industrial production (IIP) in May was estimated to increase by 5% over the previous month and by 1,51% over the same period. The index of industrial production and construction showed signs of increasing again in April and May, after a period of negative growth in the first quarter. Manufacturing indexes of industries such as pharmaceuticals, mechanical engineering, electronic goods production, food and beverage industry... all increased.
For the real estate industry, Ho Chi Minh City also has many measures to remove obstacles, helping the market to stabilize again. At the end of May, the Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Ho Chi Minh City announced the results of the settlement of 5 petitions related to 101 projects of the enterprise In the city. Accordingly, 10 recommendations have been completed and resolved; 73 recommendations are being implemented; 7 petitions are pending; 2 recommendations are inconsistent with current legislation; 2 recommendations are not under the responsibility of this Department. Some projects of Novaland Group or Hung Thinh Group have been removed, from which the company announced the restart of construction, promising to bring new supply to the market.
Many other real estate businesses also said that the sales volume was higher than in the previous period, "continuously" closing the transaction. Nam Long Investment Company said that from the beginning of the year to the end of the middle of May, it recorded sales of VND 5 billion from Mizuki Park, Akari City (HCMC) and Waterpoint (Long An) projects. Or An Gia Real Estate Company continued to sell, then handed over the pink book to residents at Westgate (HCMC) and The Standard (Binh Duong) projects. "The market has run a little better," a representative of the real estate business said.
Disbursement of public investment capital has prospered. In May, Ho Chi Minh City disbursed VND 5 billion, the highest in a year. In 6.611 months, the city has disbursed 5 billion VND, implementing nearly 9.086% of the plan assigned by the Government.
Forecasts and expectations
The Ho Chi Minh City Department of Statistics estimated that in the second quarter, the city's economic growth rate reached about 5,87%, 0,15 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In which, the service sector increased the highest, at 7,16%; construction industry increased by 4,77%…
Since then, the Bureau estimated that the economic growth rate of 6 months increased by 3,55%, 1,47 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The main growth pillar was in the service sector (up 4,96%), contributing 89% to the growth rate of GRDP.
This unit evaluates the 5-month data showing that HCMC's economy has made positive changes, creating a growth premise for the last 6 months of the year.
However, many experts say the number is "just a forecast". Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV and Member of Policy Advisory Council Finance – National currency, said that the forecast data of the Ho Chi Minh City Statistics Office “is just a forecast, like many other forecasts. The question is, whether it is feasible or not, depends a lot on the city's efforts, not on the prediction that it will be like that."
According to Mr. Luc, this is the data for reference, compared with the low base level of the previous year. He noted that Ho Chi Minh City has many positive signals related to real estate, finance, business sector, disbursement of public investment capital has been accelerated ... but it is clear that there has not been a breakthrough faster, stronger, more drastic.
Economist Dr. Dinh The Hien said that from the end of 2022, although many people expressed optimism, experts said that the financial and economic market in 2023 would be bad because of inflation pressure, rising deposit rates, corporate bond maturity in the first and second quarters of this year would be huge. In the first quarter, the market saw difficulties when exports decreased, but the domestic decline was even stronger. During the 2008-2011 period of the global economic crisis, domestic exports also declined, but not as much as at present.
Experts also recognized that in the first months of this year, pessimism weighed on businesses. Meanwhile, the world macro has flashed bright spots, but businesses still do not believe, such as the European economy has recovered, overcome the problem of high raw material prices, creating new export signals for Vietnam... “From the fourth quarter of 2022, I think bank interest rates will cool down in the first quarter and stabilize in the second quarter of this year. Now, the signal of stabilization is ready, the economy in 2023 will be V-shaped, in contrast to the previous year," said Mr. Hien.
The above positive macro signals affect the economy of Ho Chi Minh City. According to Mr. Hien, the reduction in interest rates helps to restore consumption, and production is restarted. The number of international visitors to Ho Chi Minh City is recovering quickly, but if Vietnam announces the end of the epidemic, this number will be even faster. He expects that in the fourth quarter of 2023, Vietnam will fully open to customers Travel thereby stimulating the recovery of trade and services of Ho Chi Minh City - industries that are recording positive growth signals in the first 5 months of the year.
For real estate and construction, Mr. Hien said that this field is important to the city's economy, but it is not the only indicator to assess growth. In the second half of the year, real estate and construction could not see positive changes because of many legal problems, debt settlement... and could only gradually recover. The expert emphasized that the development of production, trade and service will be the core of Ho Chi Minh City in the following months.
Need more breakthrough, more drastic
Dr. Can Van Luc said that even if the 6-month growth forecast is 3,55%, to fulfill the whole year target of 7-7,5% is also very challenging for HCMC. He said that Ho Chi Minh City needs a breakthrough and more drastic to accomplish this goal.
In the opposite direction, Dr. Dinh The Hien is optimistic with the 6-month forecast, there is no reason why Ho Chi Minh City cannot achieve the target for the whole year. He put high expectations in the field of trade and service, when tourism is opened, more international visitors come to Ho Chi Minh City. This will also reduce the situation of a series of vacant stores in the yellow streets that the press has reported extensively in recent times.
Frankly, the Ho Chi Minh City Statistics Office also noted that HCMC's export situation continued to be difficult in the first 5 months of the year when the main markets had not recovered. State budget revenue decreased by 4,5% over the same period, estimated 5 months reached 43% of the estimate.
From now to the end of the year, according to the Ho Chi Minh City Statistics Office, the city needs to continue to focus on implementing many solutions such as supporting businesses, curbing inflation, speeding up public investment disbursement, and removing difficulties for the real estate market on both the supply and demand sides. At the same time, the city has solutions to improve the efficiency of labor supply - demand connection; strengthen investment promotion, replace and supplement traditional import and export markets that are facing difficulties...
On June 8, the National Assembly will consider a draft resolution on piloting a breakthrough mechanism for the development of Ho Chi Minh City. Speaking at a panel discussion at the National Assembly on the afternoon of May 6, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee Phan Van Mai stated that this time the mechanisms and policies focus on unleashing social resources: Social investment resources through the form of PPP, BOT, BT... or mechanisms to help Ho Chi Minh City mobilize resources through bond issuance, etc. This will become the new driving force of Ho Chi Minh City and the country.
Also in this discussion, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung said that there were many opinions saying that Ho Chi Minh City is in a shirt that is too tight and needs to be loosened immediately for the city to develop. Therefore, the policies designed in the draft resolution on piloting a breakthrough development mechanism for Ho Chi Minh City will be introduced by the National Assembly to help Ho Chi Minh City have more resources, autonomy, decentralization and help the city develop strongly and worthy.
Content: Kong Chiem
07/06/2023
Dantri.com.vn
