Will the downtrend continue?

The forecast for pepper prices on July 4, 2024, predicts a sharp decline. This fluctuation in pepper prices is attributed to the fact that excessively high prices have caused some export businesses to temporarily halt purchases. This move aims to rebalance the pepper market, which is currently experiencing speculation.

In the short term, pepper prices may experience downward adjustments, but they will not be too drastic and are unlikely to fall to the low levels seen previously. Currently, due to limited pepper reserves and difficulties faced by businesses, the amount of pepper supplied to the market is not large. Transportation costs continue to rise rapidly and are projected to remain high until 2025.

Pepper price forecast for July 4, 2024: Will the downward trend continue?

Rising raw material prices, coupled with longer-than-normal shipping times, have impacted the cash flow of most manufacturers and exporters. Liquidity in the domestic market has often been very low.

The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association has just announced that, recently, the price information on the IPC website regarding Vietnamese pepper prices has differed significantly from the information provided by the Association, and at times there have been errors.

To avoid economic losses, the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association recommends that farmers, dealers, export companies, and foreign business partners consult other sources to ensure greater objectivity and reliability when making buying/selling decisions.

Regarding the harvest situation in Brazil, according to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association, as of the end of May, the country had exported 31,846 tons, a decrease of 8% compared to the same period last year. Further harvests are expected in August in the Espirito Santos region and in November in the Para region. It is estimated that the whole country will harvest approximately 60,000 more tons.

According to some farmers in the Espirito Santos region, the 2024 harvest may be 25-30% lower due to the heat causing almost all of the first crop to fall off, and the fruit set rate on the second and third crop is quite low, so it is expected to only reach about 70% of last year's yield. Overall, Brazil's 2024 crop could decrease by 20-25% compared to 2023.

The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association quoted experts as saying that signs of supply shortages compared to demand will continue to be observed in the coming period until the next harvest season.

Brazil's 2024 pepper crop will not be on the market for about two months. Until then, the supply will continue to depend on Vietnamese businesses. This remains an advantage for Vietnamese pepper.

Meanwhile, in the domestic market, today's pepper prices (July 3, 2024) in the Southeast region decreased by 2,000-5,000 VND/kg in some localities, trading around 154,000 VND/kg, with the highest purchase price in Ba Ria - Vung Tau and Binh Phuoc provinces at 155,000 VND/kg.

The price of pepper in Dak Lak is being purchased at 154,000 VND/kg, a decrease of 3,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday's price. The price of pepper in Chu Se (Gia Lai) is currently at 154,000 VND/kg, down 2,000 VND/kg from yesterday. The price of pepper in Dak Nong today is recorded at 152,000 VND/kg, a decrease of 5,000 VND/kg.

In the Southeast region, pepper prices decreased by 2,000 VND/kg today. Specifically, in Ba Ria - Vung Tau, the price decreased by 2,000 VND to 155,000 VND/kg; in Binh Phuoc, the price also decreased by 2,000 VND/kg to 155,000 VND/kg.

On the world market, the International Pepper Community (IPC) listed the price of Lampung black pepper (Indonesia) at $7,110/ton, down 0.18%; the price of Brazilian ASTA 570 black pepper at $7,300/ton; and the price of Kuching black pepper (Malaysia) ASTA at $7,500/ton.

Muntok white pepper is priced at US$9,053/ton, down 0.17%; Malaysian ASTA white pepper is priced at US$8,800/ton.

Vietnamese black pepper prices traded at US$6,400/ton for the 500 g/l variety, down 1.53%; US$6,900/ton for the 550 g/l variety, down 1.42%; and white pepper prices stood at US$9,500/ton.

Domestic pepper prices on July 3 , 2024

Provinces and cities	Unit	The price offered by traders.	Increase/decrease compared to yesterday
Chu Se (Gia Lai)	VND/kg	154,000	-2,000
­­ Dak Lak	VND/kg	154,000	-3,000
Boeing Nong	VND/kg	152,000	-5,000
Binh Phuoc	VND/kg	155,000	-2,000
Ba Ria - Vung Tau	VND/kg	155,000	-2,000

According to estimates by the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association, in the first five months of this year, Vietnam exported more than 114,400 tons of various types of pepper, and the estimated export volume in June 2024 will be no less than 25,000 tons. Thus, there are still 7-8 months until the new harvest season (expected after the Lunar New Year from February 2025), while supply from farmers and dealers remains low.

PTEXIM Corp believes that the current "trickle" of supply to the market will continue to support pepper prices in the coming period. Currently, black pepper prices at spot warehouses have established a new floor price compared to before.

Many pepper farmers across the country have only sold about 50%–70% of their current stock and have no intention of selling more, expecting domestic pepper prices to continue rising.

According to PTEXIM Corp, many pepper importers and processors previously expected a supplementary supply of raw materials from Brazil and Indonesia, but in reality, Brazil and Indonesia are currently offering almost no supply due to crop failures and delayed harvests caused by harsh weather. In particular, the state of Espirito Santom – Brazil's main pepper-producing region – is experiencing widespread crop failures. This has left many businesses without raw materials for production.

* This information is for reference only. Prices may vary depending on the time and location.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-tieu-ngay-472024-lieu-da-giam-con-dien-ra-329867.html