Iran fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on the night of October 1st, marking its second attack on the territory of its longtime rival in the past six months. The attack occurred despite stern warnings from Israel and the United States, demonstrating Iran's determination to carry out the strike.
Tehran declared this action as retaliation for the deaths of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan. Speaking at a Security Council meeting on October 2, Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saied Iravani, said the move also aimed to "restore balance and deterrence."
Mojtaba Dehghani, a political analyst at the Independent Persian , believes Iran's drastic actions are intended to show that it is not abandoning its allies, after armed groups in the Tehran-led "axis of resistance" suffered a series of heavy blows in recent weeks.
"The attack was not just a show of force or to appease supporters, but part of a larger strategy that Iran has been pursuing for many years," Dehghani said.
Iran has built its "security umbrella" on two pillars. One is its missile and nuclear program, which Israel claims Iran is close to successfully developing a nuclear bomb. The second pillar is its "axis of resistance," a network of allied forces in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Gaza.
Failure to respond to Israeli attacks on the "axis of resistance" could lead to the collapse of one of the core security strategies with Iran, according to observers.
Prior to Hamas's surprise attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, both Tehran and Tel Aviv had implicitly adhered to a "red line" to avoid direct conflict. However, this line has gradually blurred since then.
Israel now views the ongoing attacks by Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi group in Yemen as being instigated by Iran. Tehran appears to be attempting to re-establish deterrence against its long-time rival after the unwritten rules with Tel Aviv collapsed.
"For years, Iran has viewed its proxy forces and the ability to target U.S. and Israeli bases as a deterrent to protect its nuclear and missile programs. A weakened or disintegrated Axis of Resistance would cause a major security catastrophe for Tehran," said Erfan Kasraie, a DW analyst.
However, many experts believe that Iran's attack still showed a certain degree of restraint. Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in the US, points out that the Iranian missiles were primarily aimed at air and intelligence bases that could have been used by Israel in the raid that killed the Hezbollah leader late last month.
President Masoud Pezeshkian said on October 2 that Iran "is not pursuing war," emphasizing that it was Tel Aviv's actions that prompted Tehran's response.
The missile attack also fueled speculation about Iran's capabilities. Dehghani said Tehran had invested heavily in missile development, but sanctions and long-standing arms import restrictions had likely hampered this area.
Analysts believe this arsenal could allow Iran to inflict significant and short-term damage on adversaries in a controlled confrontation scenario. However, this could change if a full-scale war with Israel breaks out.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi asserted that his country's retaliatory attack would end unless Israel took further provocative action, warning that Iran's response "would be much stronger" if that happened.
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