Despite facing a series of indictments, Trump is still respected by many Americans for many reasons, the main focus being the country's economic problems.
Donald Trump was the least popular president and was criticized by nearly two-thirds of Americans by the time he left office. However, after more than three years, the public's popularity for him is increasing.
The latest New York Times/Siena poll shows his approval rating at 44%, higher than his Democratic opponent, President Joe Biden, who received a support rate of 38%. As views of President Biden become increasingly negative, Americans' views of Trump become more positive.
Former US President Donald Trump in Richmond, Virginia, March 2. Image: Reuters
Through a series of public opinion polls, former President Trump's approval rating seems to have stabilized at a higher level than three years ago. Views of him improved modestly among the general American public, but actually increased significantly among black Americans, Latinos, young voters and working-class people.
In Gallup surveys of American adults at the end of 2023, Trump's approval rating reached its highest level since before the 2020 election.
Among young people, ages 18 to 34, Trump's popularity has recovered after plummeting when he sought to overturn the 2020 election results. About 42% of young Americans have a favorable opinion of him in October 10, but dropped to 2020% in January 28, after the Capitol Hill riots. By December 1, their favorability for the former president had increased again to 2021%.
A similar pattern occurred among non-white Americans, 27% of whom had a favorable opinion of Trump in October 10. This rate decreased to 2020% in January 15 but increased again to 1% in November 2021. The recovery trend is even more pronounced among Americans earning less than $28 a year. 11% viewed Trump positively in October 2022, then decreased to 40.000% in January 37 but increased to 10% in December 2020.
“Overall, positive views of Trump have returned to baseline levels,” said Lydia Saad, director of American social research at public opinion polling organization Gallup. “For young people, the situation has returned to the way it was before the Capitol Hill riots. It appears he has not recovered his popularity among white adults, but has exceeded the baseline among other ethnic groups.”
According to experts, the former president's momentum to restore credibility can stem from three reasons.
First, he is benefiting from public pessimism about the US economy.
As the Covid-19 pandemic subsides, the economy has become the main story discussed during President Biden's term. This is a top issue for all voters, especially for black, Latino and working-class Americans.
Trump made the booming pre-pandemic economy the centerpiece of his reelection bid four years ago, and he is continuing to use it as a central argument against Mr. Biden in his rematch this year.
Inflation, rising interest rates and mixed views on the post-Covid-19 recovery process are the biggest burdens for President Biden and the Democratic Party. On the contrary, it can also be one of the biggest "assets" for former President Trump in his efforts to rebuild his reputation.
For example, in the New York Times/Siena poll, Latino voters are feeling worse about the economy. Similarly, young voters, under 30 years old, are more pessimistic about the economy than older groups.
73% of white voters rate the current economy as equal or worse than under Trump, while 74% of black voters and 84% of Latinos have this view. Among the younger group, 86% said the same, 8 percentage points higher than those between 30 and 44 years old.
There is plenty of evidence to support this discontent. According to political commentator Nicole Narea from the news site Vox, Americans still think that the economy under Biden is worse than under Trump, even though many signs of optimism have appeared. Falling economic confidence, rising concerns and Americans mounting credit card debt make the picture bleak for much of the public.
At the same time, many Americans remember the Trump-era economy more positively than they view the current economy. A CBS News/YouGov poll last month showed that 65% of respondents said the US economy under former President Trump was "good", while only 38% rated the economy the same way. Biden era.
Similar views emerged in the New York Times/Siena poll. Americans of all races, ages and genders feel that Trump's policies, especially the economy, bring more benefits to them than what President Biden is implementing.
Some economic impacts from the pandemic during both presidential terms are beyond the control of the head of the White House, but this does not change the belief of many people that President Biden bears much responsibility. more responsible than his predecessor Trump about the state of the economy.
The strong recovery in Trump's approval rating may also stem from his low starting point.
One of the consequences of elections is the tendency for the country to be divided, when a group of voters supporting one candidate will view the other side negatively. The president-elect is tasked with bridging that divide to unite the country, often thanks to support from the outgoing leader.
But Trump did the opposite in 2020. He did not admit defeat to Mr. Biden, even repeatedly accusing the election of fraud, one of the reasons motivating the Capitol Hill riot. That had a particularly negative impact on Trump, pushing his position to a seemingly irreversible low in the hearts of the American public.
When analyzing a survey conducted after the riots, Pew Research Center found that Trump's approval rating had fallen to 29%, down 9 percentage points from the August 8 poll and was “ the biggest change between two Pew polls since he took office.” Much of this probably stems from the fact that the Republican party turned against Trump immediately after the incident.
Previously, the combined impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and social unrest caused the level of trust and popularity for the former president to drop sharply at the end of his term.
From August 8 to January 2020, Trump's approval rating among the Hispanic community decreased by 1 percentage points. His approval rating among black voters fell from 2021% to 11%, and among young voters from 9% to 4%.
Looking at Trump's dire situation three years ago, it can be speculated that the current trend of improvement in the former president's approval rating is partly due to fading memories of the Capitol Hill riots and the reality of 2020. It's been a very volatile year. The fact that Republicans rallied to his defense after a series of indictments was also a driving force in influencing public opinion.
The third reason for Trump's improved standing is the result of the public paying less attention to the election than before. Besides, the former president is also campaigning in a different way, changing the way the media reports on him.
In Gallup surveys of how much Americans follow national politics, the share who said they followed “very closely” fell to 32% in 2023, down nearly 10 percentage points from last year. 2020. Similarly, steep declines in attention were also observed in data for young adults and non-white Americans from 2020 to 2023.
Although the former president's media coverage is still very large, according to observers, it cannot be compared to the 2016 election campaign or the re-election campaign he started as incumbent president. 2020.
Aside from the information about the indictments that Trump faces, he no longer seems to be as present in public daily life as before.
He also no longer attracts attention as the country's leader after a year of crisis and his campaign events are aimed at conservative audiences or media. Reducing the frequency of appearances in the media can be a good thing for the former US president, as he limits the risk of "slandering" or being negatively evaluated by the public for his controversial views, experts say. assessment.
President Biden probably also recognizes this. In an interview with journalist Evan Osnos from the magazine The New Yorker, he complained that the press did not pay enough attention to his own achievements and the "threat" from former president Trump.
Osnos said the conundrum facing the American press in covering Trump's current campaign is that at certain times, it is difficult to convey to the public when to pay attention to the real moments. worrying, because the former president can do many things to shock.
In the first major election campaign in Waco, Texas on March 25, 3, Trump's campaign began with a video showing people who had been sentenced to prison for the Capitol Hill riot participating in singing the US national anthem, along with some pictures of the riot. “You will be vindicated and you will be proud,” Trump declared.
“That moment really went unnoticed by the media,” Osnos admitted.
Vu Hoang (Follow Vox, AFP, Reuters)
