The US has betrayed its strategic ally.

GD&TĐ - The signing of the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran not only dealt a major blow to Israel's plans but also weakened Netanyahu's power.

A fated promise

According to RIA, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu intends to lead the Likud party to victory in the October parliamentary elections. However, US President Trump has expressed doubts about this.

"He's had a great career. But does he want to continue? After all, he was a wartime Prime Minister ," the US President remarked.

To reiterate, Netanyahu first became prime minister in 1996. He has been in power for a total of 18 years. The current government was formed in 2022 through a coalition between the Likud party and several far-right Orthodox Jewish parties.

Over the past few months, Netanyahu's party has built its policies on the close and trusting relationship between the party leader and Trump.

Netanyahu called the US president a true friend of Israel, praising him for the war with Iran and for justifying the Israeli military's actions in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.

President Trump responded by asking the Israeli justice system to drop the criminal prosecution of Prime Minister Netanyahu on corruption charges, which could carry a 10-year prison sentence.

However, as negotiations between the US and Iran progressed, the situation began to change. Netanyahu convinced President Trump that there was no reason to compromise with Iran.

Conversely, from the Israeli government's perspective, a continued blockade and military campaign in Lebanon would lead to the strategic defeat of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the near future.

But Trump ignored the Israeli Prime Minister's advice. Instead, he began accusing him of senselessly escalating the conflict.

In conversations with his advisers, the US president admitted that an agreement with Netanyahu was impossible: Netanyahu reportedly wanted to "bomb everyone."

Ultimately, the Israeli Prime Minister was not informed in advance about the contents of the memorandum between the US and Iran. Sources told Axios that Netanyahu saw the document and became alarmed.

The Israeli Prime Minister fears that the clause calling for a ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, will harm the Likud party's prospects for parliamentary elections.

Subsequent statements from White House officials further exacerbated the situation. "Mr. Trump is the only head of state in the world currently sympathetic to Israel."

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"Anyone who thinks President Trump is the main problem needs to wake up and face the reality of the situation in their country," Vice President JD Vance said.

The perfect storm

Even without this external shock, a crisis was brewing within the ruling coalition. For example, Netanyahu failed to secure enough votes from MPs to support the nursery law, which would have allowed Israelis to send their children to preschool for free.

Currently, this option is only available to families where the father is serving in the military. This initiative is being lobbied for by the Orthodox Church, part of the ruling coalition, and their far-right allies are unhappy about it.

As a result, the Orthodox faction refused to support any of the coalition's proposals until their demands were met.

According to Israel's Channel 13, Likud remains the most popular party and could win 22 seats in the parliamentary elections.

However, with his current coalition partners, Netanyahu's party only has 47 seats, while the ruling coalition needs 61 seats.

According to the same source, 59% of Israelis do not want Netanyahu to run for Prime Minister again. 33% hold the opposite opinion, and the remaining 8% are undecided.

Based on experience

Boris Dolgov, a leading researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes Netanyahu was so euphoric about his victories against Syria, Hamas, and Hezbollah that he did not hesitate to plunge into war with Iran.

As a result, he put himself in a difficult position: the campaign's objectives had failed, Iran could become stronger than before, and the Israeli opposition blamed the Prime Minister for this.

"Nemanthief claims he is the only one in Israel capable of saving the country from the imminent threat. Meanwhile, his opponents argue that he created the problem he is now trying to solve. However, it is too early to dismiss him."

First, the far-right, and a significant number of people belonging to this faction in Israeli society, remain willing to support Netanyahu. Second, it remains to be seen what will happen to the memorandum in the coming months.

"The breakdown of negotiations and the escalation of hostilities could actually boost Netanyahu's approval ratings," scholar Dolgov noted.

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This expert is certain that the Likud party leader will fiercely fight for power, as defeat in the election would mean the end of his political career.

"Experts believe that President Trump has begun establishing contact with the Israeli opposition. The US is reportedly hoping that Netanyahu will lose the parliamentary elections and that Israel will have a more compliant Prime Minister."

However, Trump's endorsement has not guaranteed success for Western politicians. For example, in Canada, Hungary, and Romania, those he supported failed.

Ultimately, Likud remains the most popular party in Israel, meaning Netanyahu will have the right to be the first to attempt to form a governing coalition,” said Alexei Yurk, a researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the Institute for Middle Eastern Studies (IMEMO RAS).

However, experts believe that the change of power in the Israeli state will not lead to a fundamental change in the country's foreign policy.

Whoever succeeds Netanyahu will likely adopt a more restrained stance, but will still view Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas as strategic threats to Israel.

Source: https://giaoducthoidai.vn/my-da-phan-boi-dong-minh-chien-luoc-post783288.html