Many investment channels are expected to fluctuate in 2025, so choosing is still a difficult problem.
Gold will increase slowly
In 2024, the gold market recorded a very strong increase in price. Accordingly, the price of gold rings and gold bars increased by 34% and 14% respectively - the strongest in more than 10 years.
However, experts say that in 2025, many factors supporting gold prices have declined, but the precious metal is unlikely to fall sharply because demand from large organizations is always available, creating support for gold.
Therefore, investors should not use financial leverage when investing in gold in 2025 and must closely monitor market developments, especially geopolitical tensions, interest rate cuts, USD movements, and global cash flow movements, etc.
According to experts, in 2025, investors should pay close attention to the impact of US President Donald Trump's policies on the US economy . If inflation increases sharply, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raises interest rates, there is a risk of economic recession, investors will turn to gold. If on the contrary, the economy recovers well, the US economy "landed safely", money will flow to higher-risk assets.
The World Gold Council (WGC) report said that if the market situation remains the same as it is now, gold prices in 2025 will increase more slowly than in 2024.
Global gold prices recorded their best year in more than a decade in 2024, peaking around 40 times, at one point approaching $2,800/ounce in late October. Total gold demand in the third quarter of 2024 reached $100 billion for the first time. Despite the sell-off after the US presidential election, the precious metal still increased by 30% for the year.
The WGC believes that precious metals still have the potential to increase in price if central bank demand is stronger than expected or if the financial situation worsens, increasing the demand for shelter. However, the increase in 2025 may be slower than in 2024. In addition, if the wave of interest rate cuts is reversed, precious metals will face many challenges.
Real estate gradually recovers but still needs to be considered
The real estate market in 2024 recorded a recovery in some segments, but limited new supply and clear differentiation between regions made it difficult to make a profit from this channel.
According to Dr. Le Xuan Nghia, 2025 is not yet the year of real estate. Currently, the market is in a wait-and-see mode, buyers are waiting for luck in falling house prices, while real estate developers hope that new laws will come into effect to ease supply difficulties.
“ In 2025, provinces and cities will announce new land prices. I am very worried that land prices in localities may increase 5-6 times. If land prices skyrocket, it will be difficult for anyone to dare to invest, ” Dr. Le Xuan Nghia warned.
The positive point of the real estate market, according to this expert, is that the project supply can be improved if the shelved and backlogged projects are resolved. At that time, tens of thousands of billions of VND wasted in land will be released. However, the real estate market in 2025 is still mainly in the "waiting and waiting" and procedure settlement phase, so putting money down is not profitable.
Meanwhile, with a more positive perspective, Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh - Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Real Estate Brokers (VARS) said that with optimistic signals from the economy, it is forecasted that there will be an upturn in the real estate market in 2025. The market will even enter a period of sustainable and stable development.
The impact of preferential credit packages for social housing, the 2023 Land Law, and the Real Estate Business Law has also been "permeated" enough to be able to be promoted in practice. Thus, many "bottlenecks" will be removed in 2025, making the market less hot and more balanced, the pressure of supply and demand may not be as great as in the past.
However, investing in real estate should also be considered based on closely monitoring market developments, and should not be invested based on crowd psychology.
Will stocks "explode"?
The stock market is expected to flourish in 2025, according to some experts.
GDP growth is forecast to be high (GDP growth target for 2025 is 8%), exports, FDI attraction growth, a series of large projects being implemented... are bright spots of the economy. In addition, the story of upgrading securities continues to be considered a catalyst for the market.
Mr. Hoang Quoc Anh, Investment Director of GHGInvest, commented that it is likely that in September 2025, Vietnamese securities will be included in the list of emerging markets, opening up great opportunities for foreign investment funds.
In that context, banking stocks are receiving special attention with expectations of a breakthrough in 2025.
Ms. Do Hong Van - Head of FiinTrade analysis team said that although the banking group is having a growth rate of over 10%, not too low, but compared to history and average growth, it is not commensurate with an industry with many favorable conditions to improve more strongly in terms of profit scale like banking.
In 2025, when private investment improves, credit will grow again and become a driving factor for the banking industry in 2025, which will be clearly demonstrated from the beginning of the year.
Along with banking stocks, the retail sector also has many positive signals as demand increases, consumer spending improves, and the economy recovers in general.
Giving advice to investors, Mr. Nguyen Viet Duc, Digital Business Director of VPBank Securities Joint Stock Company (VPBankS), said that for long-term investment, one should look for leading companies with a return on equity (ROE) of more than 15%.
Interest rates will rise more slowly
In 2023, after 4 adjustments to the State Bank's operating interest rates, banks entered the "race" to reduce deposit interest rates. The 12-month term interest rate from the peak of 10-12.5%/year at the beginning of the year was adjusted down to only 5% before the end of 2023.
In 2024, the wave of increasing savings interest rates began to strengthen from the beginning of April. At that time, the highest interest rate in the system for a 12-month term was only around 5%/year, but by the end of the year, banks had started paying interest rates from 6%/year for a term of 12 months or more, but most of them were medium and small-sized banks.
Ms. Tran Thi Khanh Hien, Director of Research at MB Securities (MBS), expects no policy rate cuts in 2025. The possibility of interest rate hikes in the context of global economic easing is not high. Accordingly, the State Bank will maintain a loose monetary policy to promote economic growth to keep interest rates low, thereby promoting credit growth.
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