Many investment channels are expected to experience volatility in 2025, so choosing the right one remains a difficult task.
Gold will slow its rise.
In 2024, the gold market recorded a very strong price increase. Accordingly, the price of gold rings and gold bars increased by 34% and 14% respectively - the strongest increase in more than 10 years.
However, experts predict that in 2025, many factors supporting gold prices will have diminished. Nevertheless, the precious metal is unlikely to fall significantly because demand from large institutions remains readily available, providing support for gold.
Therefore, investors should avoid using financial leverage when investing in gold in 2025 and must closely monitor market developments, especially geopolitical tensions, interest rate cuts, USD movements, and global capital flows.
According to experts, in 2025, investors should closely monitor the impact of US President Donald Trump's policies on the US economy . If inflation rises sharply and the Federal Reserve (Fed) raises interest rates, posing a risk of recession, investors will turn to gold. Conversely, if the economy recovers well and the US economy "lands safely," money will flow to higher-risk assets.
A report by the World Gold Council (WGC) suggests that if market conditions remain as they are, gold prices in 2025 will rise more slowly than in 2024.
Global gold prices recorded their best year in over a decade in 2024, reaching approximately 40 new highs, at one point approaching $2,800 per ounce in late October. Total gold demand in the third quarter of 2024 reached $100 billion for the first time. Despite a sell-off following the US presidential election, the precious metal still rose 30% for the year.
The World Gold Council (WGC) believes precious metals still have upside potential if central bank demand is stronger than expected or if financial conditions worsen, driving up safe-haven demand. However, the increase in 2025 may be slower than in 2024. Furthermore, if the wave of interest rate cuts reverses, precious metals will face significant challenges.
Real estate is gradually recovering, but caution is still needed.
The real estate market in 2024 saw a recovery in some segments, but limited new supply and clear differentiation between regions made it difficult to profit from this channel.
According to Dr. Le Xuan Nghia, 2025 is not yet the year of the real estate market. Currently, the market is in a wait-and-see mode; buyers are hoping for a drop in house prices, while real estate developers are hoping that new laws will come into effect and alleviate supply constraints.
“ In 2025, provinces and cities will announce new land prices. I am very worried that land prices in localities could increase 5-6 times. If land prices skyrocket, few people will dare to invest ,” warned Dr. Le Xuan Nghia.
According to this expert, a positive aspect of the real estate market is that the supply of projects could improve if stalled or stalled projects are resolved. This would free up tens of trillions of dong wasted on land. However, the real estate market in 2025 will still mainly be in a "wait-and-see" phase, focusing on resolving procedures, making it unfavorable for investment.
Meanwhile, taking a more positive view, Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh - Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Real Estate Brokers (VARS) - believes that with optimistic signals from the economy, the real estate market is expected to flourish in 2025. Furthermore, the market will enter a phase of sustainable and stable development.
The impact of preferential credit packages for social housing, the 2023 Land Law, and the Real Estate Business Law has already had enough effect to be realized in practice. Thus, many bottlenecks will be removed in 2025, making the market less overheated and more balanced, and the supply-demand pressure may not be as great as in the past.
However, investing in real estate should be carefully considered based on close monitoring of market developments; one should not invest based on herd mentality.
Will the stock market "boom"?
Some experts predict that the stock market will flourish in 2025.
High GDP growth forecasts (the target for GDP growth in 2025 is 8%), strong export growth, FDI attraction, and the implementation of numerous large-scale projects are all positive aspects of the economy. Furthermore, the prospect of upgrading the stock market continues to be seen as a catalyst for the market.
According to Mr. Hoang Quoc Anh, Investment Director of GHGInvest, it is highly likely that in September 2025, Vietnamese stocks will be included in the list of emerging markets, opening up great opportunities for foreign investment funds.
In this context, banking sector stocks are receiving particular attention, with expectations of a breakthrough in 2025.
According to Ms. Do Hong Van, Head of Analysis at FiinTrade, while the banking sector is currently experiencing growth exceeding 10%, which is not too low, it is still not commensurate with historical and average growth rates, given that the banking industry has many favorable conditions for significant improvements in profit scale.
In 2025, as private investment improves, credit will grow again and become a driving factor for the banking sector, a fact that will be evident from the beginning of the year.
Along with banking stocks, the retail sector is also showing many positive signs as demand increases, consumer spending improves, and the overall economy recovers.
Offering advice to investors, Mr. Nguyen Viet Duc, Director of Digital Business at VPBank Securities Joint Stock Company (VPBankS), suggested that for long-term investment, investors should look for leading companies in their respective industries with a return on equity (ROE) of over 15%.
Interest rates will rise more slowly.
In 2023, after four adjustments to the State Bank of Vietnam's policy interest rate, banks entered a "race" to lower deposit interest rates. Interest rates for 12-month terms, which peaked at 10-12.5% per year at the beginning of the year, were adjusted down to just 5% before the end of 2023.
In 2024, the wave of rising savings interest rates began to intensify from the beginning of April. At that time, the highest interest rate in the system for a 12-month term was only around 5% per year, but by the end of the year, banks had started offering interest rates from 6% per year for terms of 12 months or more, although most of these were medium and small-sized banks.
Ms. Tran Thi Khanh Hien, Director of Research at MB Securities (MBS), expects there will be no policy interest rate cuts in 2025. The likelihood of an interest rate increase is low given the global economic easing. Accordingly, the State Bank of Vietnam will maintain a loose monetary policy to stimulate economic growth and keep interest rates low, thereby promoting credit growth.
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