The National Assembly assigned the Customs sector a State budget revenue estimate of VND 411,000 billion in 2025; however, budget collection activities are forecast to face many difficulties and challenges due to the impact of reduced revenue.
The National Assembly assigned the Customs sector a State budget revenue estimate of VND 411,000 billion in 2025; however, budget collection activities are forecast to face many difficulties and challenges due to the impact of reduced revenue.
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| In 2025, the Customs sector was assigned by the National Assembly to collect a state budget estimate of 411,000 billion VND. |
The total import and export turnover of goods in 2024 of our country is estimated to reach about 783 billion USD, the budget revenue from import and export activities up to December 14 reached 402,680 billion VND, reaching 107.4% of the estimate, up 13.9% over the same period in 2023.
The General Department of Customs expects the budget revenue in 2024 to reach VND 418,000 - 420,000 billion, equal to 111.5% - 112% of the assigned estimate, an increase of 13.4% - 13.9% over the same period in 2023.
By 2025, the National Assembly assigned the Customs sector a budget revenue estimate of VND 411,000 billion, which was built on the basis of GDP growth of 6.5-7%; crude oil price of 75-80 USD/barrel.
The assessment of the Import-Export Tax Department (General Department of Customs) shows that the budget revenue of the Customs sector in 2025 will be affected by tax reduction due to the implementation of free trade agreements (FTAs). On May 31, 2023, the Government issued Decree 26/2023/ND-CP stipulating the Preferential Export Tariff, Special Preferential Import Tariff and 17 decrees stipulating Special Preferential Import Tariff to implement FTAs in the period of 2022 - 2027.
Accordingly, the average tax rate for the whole schedule in 2022 is 14.8%; in 2023 it is 10.1%; in 2024 it is 9.6%; in 2025 it is 8.4%; in 2026 it is 8% and in 2027 it is 7.5%.
In fact, the weighted average import tax rate in 2023 reached 2.12%, but by 2024 it had decreased to 1.61% due to the implementation of international commitments on tax reduction. The expected reduction in revenue due to the implementation of FTAs is about VND 14,000 billion.
In addition, the amendment of Decree 59/2018/ND-CP amending and supplementing a number of articles of Decree 08/2015/ND-CP in the direction of abolishing regulations on on-the-spot import and export will also reduce state budget revenue by about VND 10,000 billion/year.
In 2025 alone, import tax refunds for this type are estimated at about 3,500 billion VND for declarations registered in 2024.
In addition, on October 17, 2024, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) announced the initiation of an administrative review of the anti-dumping duty order on oil country tubular goods (OCTG) from Vietnam; India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) initiated an anti-dumping investigation on hot-rolled steel coil originating or exported from Vietnam.
This will affect imported coal and ore for iron and steel production, so it is expected that in 2025, revenue from these products will decrease by about VND 12,500 billion.
In addition, the value added tax rate on some goods is reduced from 10% to 8%, which is expected to reduce revenue in the first 6 months of 2025 by about VND 9,000 billion. This amount is not deducted when making the estimate because the National Assembly has not yet decided.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/nganh-hai-quan-ap-luc-thu-ngan-sach-xuat-nhap-khau-trong-nam-2025-d236109.html
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