According to the report of VARs, from the beginning of 2022 to the end of the first quarter of 2023, the market is always in a state of "thirst" for supply, especially the supply of affordable housing, in line with the financial ability of the majority of people. people.
Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Chairman of VARs assessed: "Poverty, unattractive, shortage" are the correct words to describe the current supply situation in the past time.
Real estate is still in a difficult period. (Photo: Tel)
Specifically, in 2022, the supply to the market will reach about 48.500 products, just over 20% of the supply in 2018 (the year before the COVID-19 pandemic). The supply structure is mainly high-end products with great value.
In the first quarter of 2023, the supply to the market reached about 25.000 products, mainly inventory from previously launched projects.
Not only decreased supply, demand also decreased. Rarely does the real estate market have a state of absence of customers. Mr. Dinh analyzed that there are a number of factors leading to this phenomenon.
For example, the product is poor, mostly from old projects. Not attractive enough to customers. High and attractive deposit interest rates, attracting customers' idle money into the banking channel.
In addition, customers' confidence in the real estate market is declining, difficulties in getting loans, and a large number of customers have financial difficulties due to the general economic situation.
Chairman of VARs said that the real estate market has shown signs of "weakening" since the beginning of 2022. This situation has continued to remain until now.
“The lack of suitable supply, coupled with weak cash flow and reduced confidence, makes the transaction volume in 2022 and Q1/2023 all tend to go down,” Dinh said.
In which, the overall absorption rate of the whole market in 2022 will reach about 39%, equivalent to 19.000 transactions, only 17% of the transaction volume of 2018.
Similarly, the overall absorption rate of the whole market in the first quarter of 1 was only about 2023%, equivalent to more than 11 transactions, down more than 2.700% compared to the same period in 50.
Some people think that the real estate market will have a recovery momentum in the second half of the second quarter of 2023, thanks to the solutions to remove difficulties issued by the Government. Besides, commercial banks also simultaneously reduced interest rates, which is also expected to become a supporting factor for the market.
However, until June 6, the market is still quite quiet, the trading volume is still low, partly because there is no reasonable product to supply in the market.
Nguyen Trung Tuan, a real estate expert, said: Gone are the days of "surfing" real estate.
“Currently, in order for the real estate market to "heat up", it is necessary to have enough goods to supply to the market. This source of goods must be products that the market needs, which are affordable apartments and project land, "said Mr. Tuan.
However, in the context that new projects are approved very little, large investors are "running out of money", it is clear that it is difficult for the market to recover.
"Expecting the market to recover this year is very difficult, at least 1-2 years from now, when new projects are built, then the real estate market will have momentum," Mr. Tuan shared.
