Many positive signs

At the seminar "Investment 2025: Decoding Variables - Identifying Opportunities," many opinions suggested that Vietnam's economic outlook would be bright, with GDP projected to be higher than in 2024 and inflation remaining under control.

According to Mr. Luong Van Khoi, Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management Research, GDP growth in 2024 will exceed the target of 66.5%, and that figure could reach 7.06%. This provides a basis for even more positive GDP growth in 2025.

The forecast for seafood exports in 2025 continues to show strong growth.

Opportunities come with challenges.

Specifically, all three economic sectors experienced stable growth, with the industrial and service sectors showing strong growth. Once the laws on land, housing, real estate business, and bidding are fully implemented, they will have a significant impact on GDP growth in 2025.

Meanwhile, Mr. Hoang Xuan Trung (Citi Bank Vietnam) believes that Vietnam's GDP growth will continue to increase in the coming years, leading to higher per capita income. The young population, which tends to consume more, will stimulate domestic consumption. Strong reform measures such as mergers and streamlining of the administrative apparatus will contribute to creating a healthy business environment, promoting sustainable economic growth, and enhancing the economy's ability to respond to unexpected fluctuations.

Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu commented that the volatile global situation in 2024 presented a challenging year for Vietnam. With its high degree of openness, the Vietnamese economy was not immune to these impacts. Nevertheless, the Vietnamese economy remained stable, demonstrating its strengthened internal capabilities to withstand external risks and obstacles. This is evident not only in GDP growth but also in effective inflation control.

In 2025, amidst a still complex global situation and numerous domestic economic challenges, the question posed by experts and investors is: What will be the best investment choice for 2025?

According to Mr. Hieu, regarding exchange rates, the USD index has risen sharply recently, causing the Vietnamese Dong exchange rate to increase from 24,265 VND/USD at the beginning of 2024 to 25,318 VND/USD at the end of the year, equivalent to a 4.34% increase. In 2025, the VND may continue to be affected. Vietnam's foreign trade with the US, with payments in USD, will also be a challenge. However, Mr. Hieu also believes that opportunities for the Vietnamese economy in 2025 remain significant, as it receives investment capital from US companies, especially in the high-tech and semiconductor sectors.

According to Ms. Dang Thuy Ha, Director of Customer Behavior Research (NielsenIQ Vietnam), the company's survey results show that 67% of Vietnamese people believe their financial situation is improving, significantly higher than the 50% of the previous year's survey.

At the forum "Driving Forces for Businesses in the New Context," Dr. Can Van Luc, a member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, said: In 2025, many forecasts from international financial institutions suggest that Vietnam's growth rate will be around 6.5%. However, many indicators suggest that growth will be around 6.6-6.8% or possibly even higher at 7-7.5%.

From another perspective, Associate Professor Dr. Tran Dinh Thien - former Director of the Vietnam Institute of Economics - believes that Vietnam is shifting in a very positive direction in its international integration relations. However, human resources remain an area for improvement. Dr. Tran Du Lich stated that currently, Vietnam accounts for 1.3% of the global import market share, ranking among the top 25 largest exporting countries in the world with export turnover reaching approximately 400 billion USD, equivalent to 80% of GDP. However, the actual contribution of exports to GDP in creating added value only reaches 25%, while the remaining 75% depends on the domestic market.

What will Vietnam's ranking be in the global economy in 2025?

UOB Bank (Singapore) forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth at 6.6% in 2025. For the whole of 2024, UOB predicts Vietnam's exports will increase by 18%, the strongest growth year since 2021. Standard Chartered Bank forecasts Vietnam's economy to grow by 6.7% in 2025. For the first half of 2025, the projected growth rate is 7.5%. The bank also forecasts the USD/VND exchange rate in the second quarter of 2025 at 25,450 VND/USD.

Meanwhile, according to forecasts from experts at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Vietnamese economy will reach a size of US$506 billion in 2025. With this projected figure, placing Vietnam among the top 15 largest economies in Asia and 33rd globally, the IMF indicates that Vietnam's economy is rapidly developing thanks to a boom in manufacturing and foreign investment. This figure represents an increase from the US$433 billion GDP and 34th position in 2023. In 2020, Vietnam's GDP reached US$346 billion, ranking 37th in the world. The IMF also forecasts that the Vietnamese economy could grow at 7% in 2024, placing it among the few economies with high growth rates in the region and the world.

Meanwhile, the US continues to lead the world – a position it has maintained for over 100 years – with a projected GDP of $30.3 trillion in 2025. Following closely behind is China with a GDP of $19.5 trillion, marking its 15th consecutive year as the world's second-largest economy. These two countries together account for approximately 40% of total global GDP.

Will gold prices become less volatile and apartment prices decrease?

However, despite the optimism, economic experts still believe that Vietnam's economy will continue to face challenges in 2025. These include fluctuations in the gold market and apartment prices.

Since the beginning of 2024, domestic gold prices have fluctuated, reaching new highs. To stabilize the market, the State Bank of Vietnam has implemented various measures, but these have not been very effective.

While the price of SJC gold reached its highest point in 2023 at 77 million VND/ounce at the end of November, it has since reached 90 million VND/ounce for the selling price. Meanwhile, the price of gold rings has also increased sharply from around 62 million VND at the beginning of 2024 to around 88 million VND currently.

Despite gold prices reaching record highs, the domestic gold trading landscape remains a topic of great interest. Notably, the buy-sell price spread remains very large, around 4 million VND per ounce, although the difference between domestic SJC gold prices and world gold prices has narrowed significantly, from nearly 20 million VND per ounce to 3-4 million VND per ounce.

In 2025, financial and banking experts believe that while obstacles in the gold market will still exist, it is highly likely that gold prices will no longer fluctuate wildly as regulatory authorities flexibly adjust market management policies, strengthen supervision, and strictly control to prevent speculation.

Regarding this issue, according to Mr. Tran Hoang Ngan (National Assembly representative from Ho Chi Minh City), the fundamental solution is to establish a commodity exchange, with a gold exchange linked to the world market, thereby solving the problem of gold prices and domestic gold supply and demand. Meanwhile, a group of experts from the National Economics University proposed abolishing the monopoly on importing, producing, and trading gold bars, ensuring connectivity between the domestic and international gold markets. In addition, strict control over gold smuggling is needed to limit unreasonable gold price increases caused by artificial demand.

According to economist Phan Dung Khanh, gold is unlikely to maintain its upward trend in 2025. Mr. Khanh noted that historically, gold's 10-year cycle mostly sees sideways movement, with only 1-2 years of sharp price increases followed by 1-2 years of price declines. Up to this point, gold has experienced a relatively long and rare period of price increases, making a significant surge in 2025 highly unlikely.

Regarding real estate in general and apartments in particular, Mr. Dinh Minh Tuan - a real estate expert - provided the following figures: In November 2024, the selling price of apartments in Hanoi reached 61 million VND/m2. He predicted that in 2025, the primary market segment of apartments in Hanoi will "disappear" at a price of 50 million VND/m2.

Speaking at the seminar "Hanoi Apartment Market: What are the Sustainable Living and Investment Options?", Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh - Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association and Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association - stated that the Hanoi real estate market has been showing positive signs. However, a notable point is the complete absence of affordable apartments on the market, while mid-range apartments are becoming increasingly scarce. Newly launched apartment projects all have starting prices of 60 million VND/m2 or higher.

Furthermore, the continued high price levels in the primary market, with little prospect of significant decline, have spurred people to make early home-buying decisions, especially amidst concerns that prices will continue to rise in the future.

As of Q4 2024, the apartment price index in Hanoi increased by 64% compared to Q2 2019. The average primary selling price approached VND 60 million/m2. Secondary apartment prices continued to maintain high asking prices, although liquidity gradually leveled off after a period of rapid growth.

According to a report by market research firm Onehousing, Hanoi has not seen any affordable apartments (under 30 million VND/m2) launched for eight consecutive quarters. The high-end apartment segment (over 50-80 million VND/m2) accounts for 61% of new supply. The primary market in Hanoi lacks apartments priced below 50 million VND/m2.

A representative from OneHousing stated that new apartments priced under 50 million VND/m2 have "disappeared" due to several factors. One of the most important factors is the limited number of new projects; the total supply in Hanoi in 2024 is approximately 22,000 apartments, while according to the Hanoi Population Department, the capital adds 160,000 people each year, leading to a huge demand for housing.

Thus, according to real estate businesses, in 2025, land and apartment prices in Hanoi will remain high, compared to the Ho Chi Minh City market. According to the Vietnam Association of Real Estate Brokers (VARS), the market will not soon "fill" the shortage of affordable housing, which is the main demand of the market.

Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang: The 2025 GDP growth target is entirely feasible.

The National Assembly has passed a Resolution on the Socio-Economic Development Plan for 2025; in which the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) is projected at around 6.5-7%, with an aspirational rate of around 7-7.5%. GDP per capita is expected to reach approximately US$4,900. The average consumer price index (CPI) growth rate is projected at around 4.5%. According to Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang, an economic expert, this target is quite conservative. “Currently, traditional drivers such as public investment, private investment, and import-export are being strongly promoted. New drivers such as digital transformation, green transformation, and tourism development are also becoming important drivers. Decentralization, reduction of administrative procedures, and creating conditions for localities to develop their own potential will help mobilize more local resources and innovation. From this, it can be seen that Vietnam has many new growth drivers, combined with the improvement of the business environment, which will create strong development in the coming time. In a positive scenario, I predict that Vietnam's GDP could grow by 7.5-8% in 2025,” Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang emphasized.

Associate Professor Ngo Tri Long: A streamlined organizational structure is a favorable condition for business and investment activities.

Vietnam's economic growth prospects for 2025 are assessed positively, thanks to strong internal factors and improvements in many key areas. However, to achieve the goal, Mr. Long believes that breakthrough solutions such as institutional reform, creating a favorable business environment, and providing fiscal support for businesses and people need to be implemented more decisively. The former Director of the Institute for Price and Market Research (Ministry of Finance) noted that one of the key drivers of economic growth is the reform of the state apparatus. Policies to combat waste and streamline the apparatus will bring about many positive changes in improving the investment environment, attracting foreign capital, and promoting sustainable development. A streamlined operating apparatus will reduce the administrative burden, thereby creating more favorable conditions for business and investment activities.

Source: https://daidoanket.vn/du-bao-kinh-te-viet-nam-2025-nhieu-chi-dau-tich-cuc-10298580.html