Many positive signs

At the workshop "Investment 2025: Decoding variables - Identifying opportunities", many opinions said that Vietnam's economic prospects will have many bright spots, GDP is forecast to be higher than in 2024 and inflation is still under control.

According to Mr. Luong Van Khoi - Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, GDP growth in 2024 will exceed the target of 66.5% and that figure will probably reach 7.06%. This is the basis for GDP in 2025 to be even more positive.

Seafood exports are forecast to continue growing strongly in 2025.

Opportunities come with challenges

Specifically, all three economic sectors grew steadily, with the industrial and service sectors growing well. When the Land, Housing, Real Estate Business, and Bidding laws are sufficiently effective, they will have a clear impact on GDP growth in 2025.

Meanwhile, Mr. Hoang Xuan Trung (Citi Bank Vietnam) said that Vietnam's GDP growth will continue to increase in the coming years, helping to increase per capita income and the young population, who tend to consume more, will stimulate domestic consumption. Strong reform measures such as mergers and streamlining the apparatus will contribute to creating a healthy business environment, promoting sustainable economic growth and improving the economy's ability to respond to unexpected fluctuations.

Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu commented that the year 2024, with its world fluctuations, was a challenging year for Vietnam. With its large openness, the Vietnamese economy is not out of the impact. However, the Vietnamese economy is still stable, showing that its internal strength has been consolidated, capable of withstanding risks and barriers from the outside. This is not only seen in the GDP growth index but also in good control of inflation.

In 2025, in the context of the world situation still having many complicated developments, the domestic economy still has many challenges, the question raised by experts and investors is: What will be a good choice for 2025?

According to Mr. Hieu, in terms of exchange rates, the USD index has increased sharply in recent times, causing the Vietnamese Dong exchange rate to increase from 24,265 VND/USD at the beginning of 2024 to 25,318 VND/USD at the end of the year, equivalent to an increase of 4.34%. In 2025, VND may continue to be affected. Vietnam's foreign trade with the US with payment in USD will also be an obstacle. However, Mr. Hieu also believes that the opportunities for the Vietnamese economy in 2025 are still huge when receiving investment capital from US companies, especially in the high-tech and semiconductor sectors.

According to Ms. Dang Thuy Ha - Director of Customer Behavior Research (NielsenIQ Vietnam), the company's survey results show that 67% of Vietnamese people believe their financial situation is improving, significantly higher than the 50% of last year's survey results.

At the Forum "Business Motivation in the New Context", Dr. Can Van Luc, member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, said: In 2025, many forecasts from international financial institutions predict that Vietnam's growth rate will be around 6.5%. However, many indicators show that growth will be around 6.6-6.8% or even higher at 7-7.5%.

From another perspective, Associate Professor Dr. Tran Dinh Thien - former Director of the Vietnam Economic Institute said that Vietnam is moving in a very positive direction in international integration relations. However, human resources are still a point that needs improvement. Dr. Tran Du Lich said that currently, Vietnam accounts for 1.3% of the global import market share, belonging to the group of 25 largest exporting countries in the world with an export turnover of about 400 billion USD, equivalent to 80% of GDP. However, the actual contribution of exports to GDP to create added value is only 25%, while the remaining 75% depends on the domestic market.

In 2025, what will Vietnam's global economic ranking be?

According to UOB Bank (Singapore), Vietnam's GDP growth will be 6.6% in 2025. For the whole year of 2024, UOB forecasts that Vietnam's exports will increase by 18%, which will be the strongest growth year since 2021. Standard Chartered Bank forecasts that Vietnam's economy will grow by 6.7% in 2025. In the first half of 2025, the growth rate is forecast to be 7.5%. This bank also forecasts the USD/VND exchange rate in the second quarter of 2025 at 25,450 VND/USD.

Meanwhile, according to forecasts from experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Vietnam's economy will reach a scale of 506 billion USD in 2025. With a forecast of 506 billion USD, entering the TOP 15 largest economies in Asia and ranking 33rd globally, according to the IMF, Vietnam's economy is growing rapidly thanks to the boom in production and foreign investment. This figure increased compared to the GDP of 433 billion USD and position 34 in 2023. In 2020, Vietnam's GDP reached 346 billion USD, ranking 37th in the world. According to the IMF, Vietnam's economy is expected to grow at 7% in 2024, among the few economies with high growth rates in the region and in the world.

Meanwhile, the US continues to lead the world - a position it has maintained for more than 100 years - with a projected GDP of $30.3 trillion in 2025. China is next with a GDP of $19.5 trillion. This is the second largest economy in the world for the 15th consecutive year. The two countries account for about 40% of the global GDP.

Will gold prices stop "dancing" and will apartment prices decrease?

However, despite optimism, economic experts still believe that in 2025, Vietnam's economy will continue to have to overcome difficulties, including fluctuations in the gold market and apartment prices.

Since the beginning of 2024, domestic gold prices have continuously increased and decreased, reaching new peaks. To stabilize the market, the State Bank has applied many measures, but they have not been very effective.

If in 2023, the price of SJC gold reached its highest level of 77 million VND/tael at the end of November 2023, then up to now, there has been a time when it reached the mark of 90 million VND/tael for sale. Meanwhile, the price of gold rings has also increased sharply from about 62 million VND at the beginning of 2024, to around 88 million VND at present.

Although the gold price has reached its “peak”, the domestic gold trading situation is still a matter of concern for many people. Notably, the difference between the buying and selling prices is still very large, around 4 million VND/tael, although the difference between the domestic SJC gold bar price and the world gold price has significantly narrowed, from nearly 20 million VND/tael to 3-4 million VND/tael.

In 2025, financial and banking experts believe that although problems in the gold market still exist, it is very likely that gold prices will no longer "dance" when management agencies flexibly adjust market management policies, strengthen supervision and strict control to prevent speculation.

Regarding this issue, according to Mr. Tran Hoang Ngan (National Assembly delegate of Ho Chi Minh City), the fundamental solution is to establish a commodity exchange, with a gold exchange linked to the world market, thereby solving the problem of gold prices and domestic gold supply and demand. Meanwhile, a group of experts from the National Economics University proposed to abolish the monopoly on import, production and trading of gold bars, ensuring connectivity between the domestic and international gold markets. In addition, it is necessary to strictly manage gold smuggling to limit the unreasonable increase in gold prices due to virtual demand.

According to economic expert Phan Dung Khanh, it will be difficult for gold to continue to maintain its growth rate in 2025. Mr. Khanh noted that in history, the 10-year cycle of gold has been mostly sideways, with only 1-2 years of strong price increases and 1-2 years of price declines. Up to this point, gold has had a fairly long and rare period of price increases in history, so it is very difficult for it to increase sharply in 2025.

Regarding real estate in general and apartments in particular, Mr. Dinh Minh Tuan - an expert (real estate) gave the following figures: In November 2024, the selling price of apartments in Hanoi reached 61 million VND/m2. It is forecasted that in 2025, Hanoi apartments will "disappear" in the primary segment with a price of 50 million VND/m2.

Sharing at the workshop "Hanoi apartment market, what are the sustainable living and investment options?", Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh - Vice President of Vietnam Real Estate Association, President of Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association said that Hanoi real estate market has been recording positive signals. However, the notable point is that the affordable apartment segment is completely "absent" from the market, while mid-range apartments are increasingly scarce. Newly launched apartment projects all have starting prices from 60 million VND/m2 or more.

Along with that, the primary price level continues to be "anchored" high and is forecast to be difficult to decrease deeply, creating motivation to promote people's decision to buy houses early, especially in the context of concerns that prices will continue to increase in the future.

As of the fourth quarter of 2024, the apartment price index in Hanoi increased by 64% compared to the second quarter of 2019. The average primary selling price is approaching VND 60 million/m2. Secondary apartment prices continue to maintain high asking prices even though liquidity has gradually leveled off after a period of "hot" growth.

In a report by market research unit Onehousing, Hanoi has not had any affordable apartments (under 30 million VND/m2) opened for sale for 8 consecutive quarters. The high-end apartment segment (over 50-80 million VND/m2) accounts for 61% of new supply. The primary market in Hanoi is devoid of apartments under 50 million VND/m2.

OneHousing representative said that new apartments under 50 million VND/m2 "disappeared" due to many factors. One of the most important factors is that there are not many new projects, the total supply in 2024 in Hanoi is about 22,000 apartments, while according to the Hanoi Population Department, each year the capital has 160,000 more people, leading to a huge demand for housing.

Thus, according to real estate business circles, in 2025, land prices as well as apartment prices in Hanoi will still be hot, compared to the market in Ho Chi Minh City. According to the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), the market will not soon "fill" the shortage of affordable housing, while that is the main demand of the market.

Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang: GDP growth target 2025 is completely feasible

The National Assembly has passed a Resolution on the Socio-Economic Development Plan for 2025; in which the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is about 6.5 - 7% and strives for about 7 - 7.5%. GDP per capita is about 4,900 USD. The average consumer price index (CPI) growth rate is about 4.5%. According to Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang - an economic expert, that target is quite cautious. “Currently, traditional drivers such as public investment, private investment, and import-export are being strongly promoted. New drivers such as digital transformation, green transformation, and tourism development are also becoming important drivers. Decentralization, reduction of administrative procedures, and creating conditions for localities to develop their own potential will help mobilize more resources and local creativity. From that, it can be seen that Vietnam has many new growth drivers, combined with improving the business environment, which will create strong developments in the coming time. “In a positive scenario, I predict that Vietnam's GDP can grow by 7.5-8% in 2025,” Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang emphasized.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ngo Tri Long: A compact apparatus is a good condition for business and investment activities.

Vietnam's economic growth prospects in 2025 are assessed positively, thanks to strong internal factors and improvements in many important areas. However, to achieve the goal, Mr. Long said that breakthrough solutions such as institutional reform, creating a favorable business environment and fiscal support for businesses and people need to be implemented more drastically. The former Director of the Institute for Price Market Research (Ministry of Finance) commented that one of the important driving forces to promote economic growth is the reform of the state apparatus. Anti-waste and streamlining policies will bring about many positive changes in improving the investment environment, attracting foreign capital and promoting sustainable development. A streamlined operating apparatus will reduce administrative burdens, thereby creating more favorable conditions for business and investment activities.

Source: https://daidoanket.vn/du-bao-kinh-te-viet-nam-2025-nhieu-chi-dau-tich-cuc-10298580.html