Is Ukraine exaggerating the capabilities of its air defenses?

According to CNN, Russia has launched eight missile attacks on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv this month alone, the most recent involving the launch of at least 18 missiles and a number of drones. However, Kyiv claims to have intercepted all of them, asserting that no targets were damaged in the attacks.

Prior to this announcement, Russian military commanders, as well as Western analysts, questioned what had suddenly made Ukraine's air defense system so impenetrable.

Russia says the Kinzhal hypersonic missile destroyed a US Patriot system supplied to Ukraine.

Is Ukraine exaggerating?

Until recently, most analysts and even U.S. defense officials were skeptical that Ukraine's air defense system was capable of repelling a prolonged Russian attack.

Patriot missile defense system

Just last month, leaked US government documents revealed that Ukraine's stockpile of medium-range anti-aircraft missiles inherited from the Soviet Union was severely depleted. Meanwhile, even Alexander Rodnyansky, economic advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, recently admitted to CNN that Kyiv's air defense system "is not good enough to cope" with a relentless Russian offensive.

These assessments followed the March 9 attack, in which Russia launched 84 missiles at major cities across Ukraine. At the time, even Kyiv acknowledged that six Russian Kinzhal ballistic missiles had penetrated Ukraine's air defenses.

The more Russian missile attacks there are, the more Ukraine's air defense capabilities improve?

Not just thanks to Patriot

Although acknowledging that the claims from Kyiv contain elements of exaggeration, experts also recognize that Western weapons may have helped bolster Ukraine's air defenses. Some observers agree that the US-made Patriot missile defense system contributed to changing the battlefield situation. The US and Germany each supplied Ukraine with a Patriot system.

The Avenger air defense system is mounted on a Humvee.

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS, USA), Patriot missiles can attack high- and medium-altitude aircraft, cruise missiles, and some ballistic missiles. The Patriot system is considered so powerful that Russia has decided to eliminate them.

Experts believe that Moscow's massive wave of airstrikes this month was designed to destroy Patriot systems. Two unnamed U.S. officials said that Russian airstrikes on March 16 may have damaged, but not destroyed, one of Ukraine's Patriot systems, according to Reuters.

In addition, according to CSIS, Kyiv has also received numerous short- and medium-range anti-aircraft missiles from other NATO members. The most advanced systems currently available, including Germany's IRIS-T and the Hawk (the predecessor of the Patriot), are believed to have contributed significantly to strengthening Ukraine's air defense system.

Will F-16 fighter jets be powerless in Ukraine against Russian air defense systems?

General Serhiy Nayev, commander of Ukrainian forces stationed on the borders with Belarus and Russia, also stated that the American Avenger air defense system, mounted on Humvee vehicles, is currently being used to protect major cities and Ukrainian ground forces near the front lines. The general described the Avenger as "a very important boost" to Ukraine's air defenses, according to ABC News.

Furthermore, according to Ukraine, the weapons it possessed before the conflict broke out, primarily Soviet-era systems including the S-300 medium-range anti-aircraft missile and the Buk M1, also demonstrated a success rate of approximately 80%.

Ukraine's top priority right now

However, according to allegedly leaked Pentagon documents, Kyiv is rapidly running out of ammunition for its Soviet-era systems. Accordingly, CSIS suggests that with the limited number of missiles remaining, Ukraine needs to allocate them to its highest priorities, including preventing Russian aircraft or missiles from targeting Kyiv's most sensitive targets, CNN reports.

Will Russia wait for Ukraine's air defenses to weaken before deploying its special weapons?

According to the Ukrainian military, Russia has recently launched a series of attacks from multiple directions and with various weapons to weaken Kyiv's air defense systems, in order to facilitate further waves of airstrikes.

However, Ian Williams, a member of the Missile Defense Project at CSIS, predicts that Russia's missile stockpile may be depleted, while allies still intend to continue providing aid to Ukraine. According to Williams, where possible, supplementing interceptor aircraft and air defense equipment "should remain a top priority in Western military aid packages."

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