There are still many reasons to be optimistic.

As 2024 drew to a close, the issue of a lack of new supply, which dampened the flow of money into the stock market, was frequently mentioned as one of the factors contributing to the declining attractiveness of this capital market. However, the market still has many reasons for optimism.

Vietnamese stock market: There are still many reasons to be optimistic.

As 2024 drew to a close, the issue of a lack of new supply, which dampened the flow of money into the stock market, was frequently mentioned as one of the factors contributing to the declining attractiveness of this capital market. However, the market still has many reasons for optimism.

Quy Nhon Port Joint Stock Company is one of the three new companies listed on HoSE in January 2024.

Tired of waiting for new companies to be listed?

Since the beginning of 2024, the number of newly listed companies on both exchanges has been very small. On the HoSE, the year started with 3 new listed stocks in January: HNA of Hua Na Hydropower Joint Stock Company, QNP of Quy Nhon Port Joint Stock Company, and TCI of Thanh Cong Securities Joint Stock Company.

This was also the month with the highest number of new listed stocks on HoSE. Since then, the number of new listed companies has ranged from 1-2 per month, and there have even been months with no new companies listed at all.

With the listing of Hoang Gia Production and Investment Joint Stock Company (RYG) on December 12, 2024, a total of 10 new stocks have been listed on the HoSE since the beginning of the year. In addition to the above, there are also VTB of Viettel Post Joint Stock Company, NAB of Nam A Commercial Bank, MCM of Moc Chau Dairy Cattle Breeding Joint Stock Company, DSE of DNSE Securities Joint Stock Company, GEE of Gelex Power Joint Stock Company, and DSC of DSC Securities Joint Stock Company.

On the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX), the situation is even more bleak; throughout 2024, only the PTX stock from the newly listed company Petrolimex Nghe Tinh Transport and Services Joint Stock Company and the CAR stock of Tri Viet Education Group Joint Stock Company, which transferred from UPCoM in October, were added to the Hanoi Stock Exchange.

According to HNX leaders, as of October 31, 2024, the HNX listed market had 312 stock codes, with a total listed value at par value reaching VND 157,000 billion, equivalent to a market capitalization of VND 319,000 billion, a slight decrease compared to the end of 2023.

The number of listed companies on the HNX has tended to decrease from 2020 to the present, from 355 to only 312. According to HNX leaders, in addition to the low number of new listed companies (only about 3-4 companies per year), another reason is that since 2021, the listing requirements on the HNX have been raised.

Meanwhile, the number of delisted companies has increased due to increased monitoring and enforcement of penalties for violating companies. In 2019, approximately 20 companies delisted and 23 companies canceled their trading registration. In the first 10 months of 2024, there were approximately 15 companies delisted and 22 companies canceled their trading registration.

A quiet year for IPOs.

In the Vietnamese stock market, besides the long absence of any new listings generating significant interest, the IPO (initial public offering) situation has also been extremely quiet, with only one such transaction occurring throughout 2024, from DNSE Securities Joint Stock Company. This transaction raised approximately $37 million – surpassing the total fundraising results of the entire Vietnamese market in 2023, and also being Vietnam's first IPO in the fintech sector.

The gloomy state of Vietnam's IPO market was predicted early on. Poor liquidity, regulations such as the requirement for IPO companies to have two consecutive profitable years (instead of one as previously stipulated), and the absence of accumulated losses, are considered by VNDirect to be significant obstacles hindering IPOs.

The subdued atmosphere surrounding IPO activity isn't unique to Vietnam. A Deloitte report on the Southeast Asian IPO market indicates that delays are occurring in many countries across the region. The Singapore market has seen only four IPOs on the Catalist exchange, raising approximately $34 million since the beginning of 2024 – the lowest number and value of IPOs in the past five years (2020-2024).

From the beginning of the year until November 15, 2024, Indonesia's IPO market recorded a significant decline, with 39 deals raising $368 million, compared to 79 deals raising $3.6 billion in all of 2023. Smaller companies participated in IPOs with more cautious fundraising goals due to 2024 being an election year in the country, and were also negatively impacted by global market headwinds.

Similarly, Thailand also recorded a decline in the number of IPOs in 2024, with only 29 deals taking place as of November 15, 2024, the lowest number since 2021. However, a bright spot is that the total amount raised reached US$756 million, accounting for 26% of the region's total, making Thailand one of the top three markets in Southeast Asia.

With a sharp decline in Indonesia, the Southeast Asian IPO market saw 122 deals in the first 10.5 months of 2024, down 25% from 2023, raising approximately $2.9 billion, the lowest level in nine years, a significant drop from the $5.8 billion raised through 163 deals in 2023.

According to Deloitte's assessment, the Southeast Asian IPO market faces significant challenges in 2024, including currency volatility, regulatory differences between markets, and geopolitical tensions – all of which impact trade and investment. The continued high interest rates in ASEAN economies are restricting corporate borrowing, slowing IPO activity as companies choose to postpone listings. Furthermore, market volatility among major trading partners has affected investor confidence.

Promoting new sources of supply must go hand in hand with improving the quality of that supply.

The shortage of new supply not only puts pressure on market liquidity but also reduces its attractiveness to investors.

Looking ahead to the IPO market in the region, Hwee Ling, Head of Accounting & Reporting Assurance Services at Deloitte Southeast Asia, said that anticipated interest rate cuts coupled with lower inflation could create a more favorable environment for IPOs in the coming years.

“Southeast Asia’s strong consumer base, growing middle class, and strategic importance in sectors such as real estate, healthcare, and renewable energy remain attractive to investors. As foreign direct investment continues to flow into the region, 2025 is poised to be a year for new IPOs across Southeast Asia,” said Ms. Hwee Ling.

The challenges of 2024 pose a major test for 2025, but also present an opportunity for the Vietnamese stock market to transform.

Looking specifically at Vietnam, the challenges of 2024 pose a major test for 2025, but also present an opportunity for the Vietnamese stock market to transform.

Besides the need for new sources of supply, the quality of newly listed companies is a matter of concern. In reality, even with new companies on the market, they haven't truly attracted investor capital. During a discussion among leading securities experts, the issue of new supply sources was raised, highlighting the relatively small number of technology stocks on the Vietnamese stock exchange.

Currently, the Vietnamese stock market is still primarily driven by stocks in traditional sectors such as banking, real estate, and manufacturing. In particular, financial and banking stocks consistently hold a large market share. Meanwhile, when discussing technology stocks, the market is limited to a few familiar names like FPT. Many large Vietnamese technology companies have yet to list on the stock exchange, leaving the market lacking a crucial growth driver in the digital age.

Technology and semiconductor stocks are considered to have the potential to create a new wave in the stock market. Looking back at 2024, technology stocks experienced a positive price surge, with FPT even continuously reaching new price peaks. Globally, in the US stock market, technology stocks account for a significant proportion, and with the semiconductor chip trend, this group has consistently driven the US stock market upward.

In Vietnam, bright prospects are expected for technology companies involved in emerging industries such as data centers, semiconductors, and 5G. In 2024, a series of positive developments related to the technology sector, particularly NVIDIA's announcement of opening an R&D center and AI data center in Vietnam, repositioned the country's technological standing.

This is also a general trend in the region. Many Southeast Asian technology companies that previously aimed for IPOs in the US are now shifting their focus to exchanges within the region.

The technology sector is one of the sectors that will benefit from the still-uncertain outlook in 2025. The fact that existing technology stocks on the Vietnamese stock exchange are attracting capital, FPT is continuously setting new historical highs, and the Vietnam Information Technology Index (VNIT) has recorded continuously increasing trading value since the beginning of 2024 shows that capital flows in the stock market are not weak and are still seeking opportunities to invest in quality stocks.

Despite 2024 being a challenging year, the Vietnamese stock market still has many reasons to be optimistic. Improvements in the macroeconomic environment, along with supportive government policies, are creating significant opportunities for businesses and investors in 2025.

The stock market is not only a reflection of the health of the economy, but also a driving force for long-term development. With thorough preparation and a clear strategy, 2025 could very well become a breakthrough year, bringing the Vietnamese stock market closer to international standards.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-viet-nam-van-co-nhieu-ly-do-de-lac-quan-d237526.html