VN-Index may adjust to a lower level to stimulate new buying power.

Stock Market Perspective Week 15-19/7: VN-Index may adjust to a lower level to stimulate new buying power

Investors became cautious at the resistance level of 1,290 - 1,300 points, causing liquidity momentum to weaken. If this trend continues in the coming weeks, the VN-Index may have to adjust to a lower level to stimulate new buying power.

Last week was a blank space for financial reporting information as the period announced by many businesses would be around July 15-30. Perhaps, this is the reason why VN-Index traded slowly in the last sessions of the week, although on July 11, the world stock market had positive developments.

According to Agriseco Research, the VN-Index has had 3 consecutive sessions of decline with liquidity lower than the 5-session average - this is just a healthy adjustment in an uptrend. It is forecasted that in the next trading week, the VN-Index may recover when it finds support around the MA20 area - that is, the 1,270 point area (+-5).

Foreign capital trends were a matter of concern last week, as this group continued to net sell.

In Asia, foreign capital flows have diversified. Markets such as Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand have seen net disbursements, with Japan being the largest with a value of over 4.2 billion USD. In the opposite direction, foreign capital has withdrawn from markets such as India, Indonesia, South Korea, Sri Lanka and Vietnam, with India being the largest with a value of over 1.1 billion USD.

In Vietnam, open-end funds sold net in the week (July 8-12) with a value of VND1,174 billion. Specifically, the ETFs group sold 36.6 million USD and became the strongest selling group. Of which, Fubon and DC VFM Diamond withdrew net 25.8 million USD and 23.5 million USD, respectively.

Foreign investors' net selling momentum in the Vietnamese market continued last week with more than VND 4,500 billion, the focus was still on FPT with a value of VND 1,731 billion, followed by MWG and VHM with net selling values ​​of VND 644 billion and VND 521 billion, respectively.

Domestic individual investors remained the main counterweight to foreign net selling last week with over VND4,522 billion. Proprietary traders switched to net buying of over VND545 billion this week after net selling of over VND922 billion the previous week.

Real estate, seafood, and construction stocks have attracted cash flow after a prolonged decline. Cash flow trends continue to weaken in the banking and securities groups.

Clearly, investors have become cautious at the resistance level of 1,290 - 1,300, causing liquidity momentum to weaken. If this trend continues in the coming weeks, the VN-Index may have to adjust to a lower level to stimulate new buying power.

Agriseco Research believes that, in the context of the general market having many unpredictable fluctuations when approaching the psychological resistance zone of 1,300 points, to ensure stability and better defense for the investment portfolio, it is reasonable for cash flow to circulate to industry groups that are forecasted to have positive business results in the second quarter of 2024.

However, there is still strong differentiation within each industry group. For example, in the retail group, although it has had good price increases recently, only MWG has really stood out and contributed to the overall market growth. Meanwhile, some remaining stocks in the group have maintained sideways movements or have increased in price significantly slower than other stocks.

The quality of listed companies' earnings reports will be important in determining the short-term performance of stocks and industry groups.

When the expectation of second-quarter business results passes, cash flow will likely find its way to sectors that are highly sensitive to interest rates (such as real estate and securities) in the context that major central banks around the world are starting to enter a monetary easing cycle.

Mr. Hoang Tuan, a securities consultant at SSI Securities Company, recommends that investors maintain a reasonable proportion to be proactive with market developments, below 70% of stocks/NAV. Specifically, proactively increase the proportion when the market has an "explosive day". Low probability scenario - reduce the proportion if the market faces strong selling pressure and closes low during the session.

Group of stocks that can be observed when the score explosion scenario appears such as STB, ACB , CTD, HPG, HSG, GMD

Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-15-197-vn-index-co-the-dieu-chinh-ve-muc-thap-hon-de-kich-stimulate-luc-mua-moi-d219992.html