Key export market – 3-digit growth
The General Statistics Office report shows that in the first 2 months of this year, iron and steel exports reached 1,5 billion USD. Although in February alone, iron and steel exports decreased to the lowest level in the past 2 months, estimated at 3 thousand tons, worth 950 million USD, down 678% in volume and 18,1% in value. compared with the previous month. However, compared to the same period last year, exports of this product increased by 17,6% in volume and 19,3% in value.
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| Positive signs about steel exports in the first months of the year have been opening up a picture of prospects for the steel industry in 2024. |
Besides, statistics show that the average export steel price in February reached 2 USD/ton, up 713% compared to the previous month.
Recently released data from the General Department of Customs shows that Vietnam's total iron and steel export output from the beginning of the year to mid-February reached 2 million tons, with a turnover of nearly 1,54 billion USD. Thus, compared to the same period in 1,1, the amount of iron and steel exports increased by 2023%, while turnover increased by 65%.
It is known that ASEAN is Vietnam's largest steel export market, accounting for 32% of the export market share. Next are the EU and the US ranked 2nd and 3rd respectively, accounting for 28% and 9%.
Notably, in the first month of 2024, iron and steel exports grew impressively by 3 digits from some markets such as Italy, the United States and Malaysia. Specifically, by the end of January 1, exports to Italy reached 2024 thousand tons, an increase of 203% over the same period last year; The United States reached 114 thousand tons, an increase of 139%; Malaysia reached 419 thousand tons, an increase of 120%.
The average export steel price in February 2 reached 2024 USD/ton, up 713% over the previous month, but down 0,6% over the same period in 5,6. Accumulated in the first 2023 months of 2, export prices Average export reached 2024 USD/ton, down 711% over the same period in 1,7.
Construction steel is expected to become a bright spot of recovery for the steel industry in the context that two industries account for a large proportion of the usage structure: civil construction (accounting for 2% of construction steel demand) and public investment (accounting for 66% of construction steel demand). %) is recording positive signs of recovery since the end of 14. Consumption output in the last 2023 months of the year has increased by 2% compared to the average of previous months.
In 2024, there will be many opportunities for breakthrough
MBS Research commented that domestic steel prices have bottomed out in the third quarter of 2023 and gradually recovered since the end of 2023. This year, construction steel prices are forecast to increase by 6%, reaching an average of 15 million VND/year. ton.
Notably, the price difference between Vietnamese steel and Chinese steel is currently only 30 USD/ton, lower than the average of 50 USD/ton in the past 2 years. This will help steel products in Vietnam not suffer price competition pressure from Chinese steel.
In the medium term, when the real estate market enters a recovery cycle in 2025, construction steel prices are expected to continue to increase by 8%, reaching an average of 16,4 million VND/ton.
The Vietnam Steel Association (VSA) also commented that the steel industry has many opportunities for breakthroughs in 2024 thanks to favorable factors and opportunities from export markets. In 2030, the average steel consumption will reach 290-300 kg/person, a sharp increase compared to the current level of 240 kg/person. This is also the premise for a new cycle of development and growth of Vietnam's steel industry in the coming time.
According to VSA, the steel industry will also face a number of risks related to policies of China, the EU or challenges in green transformation, emission reduction, trade defense policies... The capital steel industry This is an industry that consumes a lot of energy, so businesses need to take more action to comply with new regulations under the Law on Environmental Protection. Steel industry enterprises also want more support from the State, while also explaining more about technical concepts to businesses.
Furthermore, currently, in the face of regulations on greenhouse emission control, many leading corporations in the world such as Nike, Adidas, Coca - Cola, Heineken... also provide important environmental criteria for selection. Choose a supplier. This requires Vietnamese businesses that want to participate in the chain of global brands to meet regulations on reducing carbon emissions.
Regarding this issue, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, steel enterprises need to strengthen research and closely follow developments in export market demand so that they can have timely and proactive preparation plans. In the long term, businesses need to actively change technology, focus on green transformation and green production to reduce carbon emissions and be more transparent in management and accounting systems according to international standards. to minimize the risk of countries opening investigations and applying trade defense measures.
It is expected that in 2024, steel consumption will increase by about 6,4%, export output will increase to nearly 13 million tons. World steel demand is forecast to recover strongly in 2024, increasing by 1,9%, reaching 1,8 billion tons in 2024, so Vietnam's steel production will have many opportunities, it is expected. increase about 10% in 2024. Finished steel product production in 2024 and 2025 is estimated to reach about 28 million-30 million tons, domestic steel consumption demand is about 22 million-23 million tons.
Besides, 2024 is considered an important pivotal year for the steel industry, with the expectation that steel prices will continue to recover in the near future. Furthermore, the recently passed Land Law (amended), Real Estate Business Law (amended), etc. have contributed to solving legal problems for the real estate market, especially problems in the process of land valuation, compensation and site clearance. Thereby, helping investors speed up project implementation progress, bringing supply to the market.
Key projects such as the North-South Expressway and Long Thanh Airport are expected to be completed ahead of schedule in the period 2025 - 2028. Growth in the field of infrastructure construction, which accounts for 14% of total steel demand, is Expected to contribute positively to the recovery of the steel industry.
The World Steel Association (Worldsteel) points out that global steel demand has reached 1,81 billion tons in 2023 and will increase 1,9% to 1,85 billion tons in 2024. In particular, steel demand of ASEAN is expected to increase by 5,2%.
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To achieve the goal of net zero carbon emissions by 0, the steel industry needs to develop specific tasks and roadmaps in reducing steel industry emissions. There is certainly a long way to go to make green steel, requiring large human resources as well as technology and finance. But in the immediate future, steel businesses need to be proactive in information and policies, thereby adjusting and standardizing energy management and gradually reducing emissions in production. This is something businesses can do right away, completely inexpensive. |
