3 electricity load growth scenarios
As the hot season approaches, the national electricity grid has consistently recorded consumption exceeding 1.1 billion kWh for several consecutive days, reaching record levels in both output and peak capacity since the beginning of the year. However, anticipating a sharp increase in electricity demand, especially during the peak months of this year's dry season, the Ministry of Industry and Trade began developing a plan for operating the national power system in 2026 at the end of last year, outlining three scenarios for load growth during peak periods.
Accordingly, three load scenarios were developed: a baseline scenario with an 8.5% increase, an operational scenario with an 11.7% increase, and a contingency scenario where demand could increase by up to 14.1% during peak dry season months. In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has approved the national power system operating method for 2026 with corresponding scenarios to ensure flexibility in managing electricity supply in 2026, with total electricity production and imports this year reaching a maximum of over 368 billion kWh. In the context of complex and unpredictable climate change, the goal is to ensure electricity supply in all situations, while proactively responding to unusual fluctuations, especially during the dry season and heatwaves.
Securing fuel for power generation has become a vital factor in guaranteeing electricity supply to meet the needs of socio-economic development and people's daily lives.
Ensure sufficient supply of raw materials for power generation.
The input materials market is experiencing significant fluctuations, while electricity consumption peaks during the hot months. Therefore, proactively securing fuel for power generation has become crucial to ensuring electricity supply for socio-economic development and people's daily lives this year.
According to the assigned plan, this year the company will produce and supply 2 million tons of coal for power generation. According to the company representative, despite the high increase in input fuel costs, the coal supply is still ensured thanks to efficient production organization.
Mr. Doan Hai Nam, Deputy Director of Thong Nhat Coal Company, said: "In 2026, the group also assigned us to produce an additional 50,000 tons of coal. We will find all solutions to organize production rationally, save materials, and reuse materials to exceed the plan of 2 million tons of coal."
Besides efforts to boost production, the import, transportation, and supply of coal for power generation are also ready. Furthermore, during this process, solutions to save resources and prevent waste are being implemented to fulfill the assigned plan.
Mr. Cao Van Chuan, Deputy Director of Cam Pha Port and Logistics Company, shared: "We have coordinated with processing and screening companies to develop coal delivery solutions, and after 4 months, we have delivered over 14 million tons of coal in general, and especially prioritized for power plants, reaching 35% of our target. Imported coal alone has also reached 37%."
Mr. Tran Hai Binh, Deputy General Director of Vietnam Coal and Mineral Industry Group, stated: "It is projected that in the first five months of the year, the Group will supply 23.7 million tons, equivalent to 45.4% of the annual plan, of which 18.8 million tons will be for electricity generation, equivalent to 44.8% of the annual plan. Currently, the Group has organized production and import, ensuring sufficient coal reserves to supply thermal power plants according to signed contracts, ensuring stable operation for over 1.5 months. Accordingly, the Group will ensure sufficient coal supply for thermal power plants during the peak hot months of 2026."
In 2026, the demand for coal for power generation is 85 million tons, with approximately 32 million tons during the dry season months from April to July. The demand for gas for power generation in 2026 is projected to be between 4.8 billion and 6.2 billion cubic meters, with an estimated 1.6 billion cubic meters during the dry season. Along with ensuring coal supply, increasing domestic regasification capacity will also be accelerated to meet the dry season electricity generation and deployment needs of the southern provinces.
Mr. Nguyen The Huu, Deputy Director of the Electricity Department, Ministry of Industry and Trade, stated: "Vietnam Gas Corporation has increased its regasification capacity from 7 million cubic meters of gas per day to 9.5 million cubic meters per day, which has significantly increased flexibility in mobilizing gas turbine resources in the Southeast region to meet electricity demand during the peak dry season in the South."
In 2026, with a peak electricity load increase scenario of up to 14.1%, and coal-fired and gas turbine power plants accounting for over 50% of the demand, ensuring sufficient coal and gas supply for electricity production is a critical requirement.
The necessary power sources have also been prepared with the necessary infrastructure, ensuring they can be mobilized during this year's hot season.
Be prepared to mobilize appropriate power sources.
In addition to ensuring sufficient basic raw materials for power generation, to meet the increasing load demand and operate the national power system safely and stably, suitable power sources now have ready infrastructure, ensuring they can be mobilized during this year's hot season.
With 55 MW of renewable energy, the company currently contributes approximately 100 million kWh of commercial electricity to the national power grid annually. In the first quarter of this year, infrastructure maintenance was completed, ready for high-level power generation during the dry season months.
Mr. Pham Minh Tuan, Deputy General Director of Halcom Vietnam Joint Stock Company, said: "To ensure the minimization of downtime for warranty and maintenance work, and to maximize production and power generation uptime, we have implemented AI technology to provide early warnings of faults so that they can be addressed before they occur. For projects currently underway and those preparing for operation, we expect to bring additional renewable energy plants into operation in 2026 and 2027 with a total capacity of approximately 200 MW, generating about 550 million kWh of electricity annually for the grid."
As for the hydropower plant, the addition of two more generating units to commercial operation since the beginning of May has increased the plant's power generation capacity to 2,400 MW. With strict adherence to reservoir operation procedures, the reservoir is currently maintaining a high water level, meeting peak electricity demand.
Mr. Pham Van Vuong, Director of Hoa Binh Hydropower Company, shared: "Repair work on all the generating units of Hoa Binh Hydropower was completed in April. And especially from the beginning of May, the two expanded generating units of Hoa Binh Hydropower officially began commercial operation. At this point, we have 10 generating units, along with a fairly high water level in the Hoa Binh hydropower reservoir. It can be said that Hoa Binh Hydropower is ready for large-scale power generation and also has sufficient reserve capacity to serve electricity supply during this year's dry season."
Mr. Nguyen Quoc Trung, Deputy General Director of the National Power System and Electricity Market Operation Company, stated: "We have assessed and reported to the Ministry of Industry and Trade that the electricity mobilization situation during the 2026 dry season will face significant difficulties and challenges. Currently, coal-fired power accounts for the majority, approximately 53%, while gas-fired power accounts for 18-20%. We also recognize that our electricity system receives significant support from renewable energy sources; the installed capacity of renewable energy alone could reach 27%."
According to forecasts, several heatwaves are likely to occur between now and July, which could lead to continued high electricity consumption. The fact that electricity consumption has exceeded 1.1 billion kWh recently shows the increasing demand for electricity, putting significant pressure on the national power grid. Therefore, in addition to ensuring supply, people and businesses need to use electricity economically, especially during peak hours, to ensure the safe operation of the power system and optimize costs for electricity users.
Source: https://vtv.vn/3-kich-ban-tang-truong-phu-tai-dien-10026052106251454.htm
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