Investment analysis
BOS Securities: Technically, the VN-Index fell sharply during the session, then partially recovered and closed above the support level of the bullish pattern from the end of last year, indicating that bottom-buying demand has been somewhat activated, especially when looking at liquidity.
However, the MACD indicator crossing below the signal line suggests increased selling pressure and that the downtrend is not yet over. Therefore, the market is not expected to break out of the downtrend. Investors are advised to maintain a high cash position and refrain from buying at the bottom.
VCBS Securities: From a technical perspective, selling pressure towards the end of the session caused the VN-Index to form a red candlestick, falling below the previous low. Indicators on both the daily and hourly charts are trending negatively, suggesting that selling pressure may continue. In a more positive scenario, the VN-Index will correct in the form of a flat wave, and the decline on October 18th will be considered a SOW (Short-Wide) session.
VCBS recommends that investors avoid excessive leverage, patiently observe market developments in the coming sessions, and refrain from prematurely buying at the bottom at this time. They should also adhere to investment discipline and reduce their holdings of stocks that have fallen below support levels after the recent three-session losing streak.
Rong Viet Securities: The market continued to decline and was in an oversold state as the VN-Index fell below the MA(200) line, the 1,111 point area. However, the market also made efforts to support and narrow the decline at the end of the trading session. This move may help the market temporarily stabilize and recover to retest the area around MA(200).
The cash flow signal in this rebound will determine whether the market will fall further or not. Therefore, investors need to observe the supply and demand developments in the MA(200) area to reassess the state of the market. For now, it is still necessary to consider keeping the portfolio weight at a reasonable level to prevent risks.
Stock market news brief
- The economy grew more strongly than expected in the third quarter of 2023, raising hopes that China will achieve its growth target for the year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, China's GDP grew by 4.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, higher than the 4.6% forecast by economists.
Previously, China's growth was 6.3% in the second quarter and 4.5% in the first quarter. Compared to the previous quarter, China's GDP increased by 1.3%, which was also stronger than the 0.9% forecast by economists. GDP in the second quarter of 2023 increased by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter.
- In the latest quarterly survey by the Wall Street Journal, economists and business leaders lowered their odds of a U.S. recession next year, from an average of 54% in July to a more optimistic 48%. This is the first time they have placed the probability below 50% since mid-last year. Three key factors fueled this optimism: continued falling inflation, the Fed having completed its interest rate hikes, a strong labor market, and economic growth exceeding expectations .
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