In the first trading session of the stock market, the VN-Index continued to decline and retreated close to the 20-day MA line - equivalent to the area of 1.235 points. The main factor causing the index to decline in this session came from the large capitalization group when many stocks had their prices suppressed.
In addition, the information that the State Bank reactivated the treasury bill channel, causing the USD/VND exchange rate to fluctuate strongly (declining in the afternoon session), is said to have had an impact on the selling pressure increasing sharply on the market. stock.
The fact that the VN-Index continues to form a long-lasting solid body bearish candlestick pattern shows that distribution pressure is still overwhelming the accumulation efforts of buyers.
The positive point is that after two sharp declines, the prices of some stocks have begun to return to near support areas and bottom-fishing demand will soon increase.
When the uptrend is still maintained, the index is expected to rebound at the support zones, roughly around 1.240 points and deeper at 1.215 (+/-10) points.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, said that it is not easy to accurately forecast the trend of the stock market, however, to evaluate the durability of the market, it is necessary to look at the market internally.
In the stock market, cash flow is essential to maintain vitality, amplitude and tempo. Market liquidity since the beginning of 2024 has risen to a new level, stocks have gradually risen to new high price ranges, surpassing the peak of the rising wave in September 9.2023, marking the end of phase 1 of the price increase cycle.
In particular, in the early stages of the rising wave, banking stocks played a leading role.
In the rising waves in the 2022-2023 period, this cannot be seen when the cash flow is weak. The wave of banking stocks acts as a strong locomotive, pulling the whole VN-Index, as well as creating a stable psychology for the market and investors.
“After an increase, stocks have formed a new price level. Saying it's not cheap is partly true, if compared with the business performance of listed enterprises in 2023. However, the valuation of some key industries such as banking is still quite attractive", Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong identify.
Experts from SHS Securities Company believe that, from a short-term perspective, the market's upward momentum is weakening and yesterday's correction increased the possibility of ending the short-term uptrend of VN-Index.
The signal that VN-Index is entering a short-term decline phase is gradually becoming clearer and does not appreciate the possibility of forming a strong uptrend, although there may be recovery sessions in the near future.
Experts from Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company said: “The VN-Index may continue to decline and retest the support zone of 1.225-1.230 points, but the market may close higher during the session. next.
At the same time, the market is in a short-term accumulation phase, so we assess that stock groups will have divergent movements in the coming trading sessions, especially we have a positive assessment of the Midcaps stock group. In addition, the sharp decline in the sentiment indicator shows that investors are more cautious with current market developments."
