The US is no longer China's largest export market.
A notable piece of information recently reported by Nikkei Asia shows that for the first time since 2006, the US is no longer China's largest export market. This information was released in the context of tensions between the two superpowers reshaping supply chains. This newspaper cited data from the US Department of Commerce stating that exports of goods from China to the US in the 11 months from the beginning of 2023 decreased by 20% compared to the same period in 2022. Notably, goods from China accounted for 13.9% of the total volume of goods imported into the US, the lowest level in nearly 20 years, after reaching a peak of over 21% in 2017.
The opportunity to increase the turnover of Vietnamese goods to the US is huge.
According to the article, exports from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to the US in 2023 decreased, but still reached the second highest level ever. Notably, goods exported from ASEAN to the US doubled compared to 10 years ago. In fact, the policy of increasing the import of goods from other countries, avoiding excessive dependence on goods from China, has been implemented by the US for many years. For example, smartphones exported from China to the US decreased by 10%, while smartphone imports from India increased 5 times; or laptops from Vietnam to the US increased 4 times.
Economist , Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang, Institute of International Trade and Economics (National Economics University), commented that the above information is an "extremely positive signal" for goods from Vietnam. In recent years, American companies have sought alternatives to Chinese goods since the administration of US President Donald Trump imposed import tariffs on thousands of goods imported from China. The administration of President Joe Biden will maintain these high tariffs. Therefore, the reduction of goods from China to the US is understandable.
For Vietnam, our export production has many items similar to Chinese goods exported to the US. Along with the shift of production lines out of China in recent years, Vietnamese goods are having a great advantage after the important political event between the US and Vietnam establishing a comprehensive strategic partnership last year. The US is targeting Vietnam in many important areas such as digital infrastructure, energy, logistics, especially semiconductor technology, minerals serving semiconductors, etc. This is a great opportunity for Vietnam, businesses, and policymakers need to pay attention to guide and suggest ways to increase the turnover of high value-added goods to the second largest consumer market in the world.
Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang, Institute of International Trade and Economics (National Economics University)
Warning of fake goods...
In fact, the US government's friend - shoring strategy is one of the reasons why China's exports to the US have decreased. To cope, China is choosing a "roundabout" strategy, investing more abroad to export goods to the US. The two markets that the Nikkei Asia article mentioned are seeing an increasing amount of imported goods to the US: Mexico and Vietnam. Without citing official figures, an analyst in this newspaper commented that China's foreign direct investment in Mexico is increasing, showing that Chinese manufacturers are setting up factories there for final assembly.
In Vietnam, data from the General Statistics Office shows that in 2023, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (China) ranked 3rd in foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam, after Singapore and Japan, with more than 4.68 billion USD of newly registered capital, accounting for nearly 12.8% of total FDI capital in Vietnam in the year and 2.1 times higher than the previous year. The 4th position is China. Especially in the past year, in terms of the number of investment projects, China led in the number of new projects, accounting for 22.2%.
Marketing expert Vu Quoc Chinh said that the positive side of increasing investment capital from China to Vietnam is that it helps to export more Vietnamese goods and increase foreign investment capital. In particular, from a social perspective, the more investors come to Vietnam, the better the opportunity to create jobs. However, he noted that we must be vigilant against the situation where goods from China follow investors to Vietnam and only do the final stage, using origin to export to the US.
"The 20% reduction in goods from China to the US is a very large number, but that is the actual number on paper from the US Department of Commerce. With the "roundabout" policy, I believe that many Chinese goods enter the US under the origin of other markets. Mainly, they are dispersed in the form of semi-finished products, sent to factories in other countries with unfinished goods, and completed in the final stages for export.
The policy of using hidden brands through partners in other countries has been successfully implemented by many Chinese enterprises for a long time. This method is not necessarily called disguised origin because in reality, the laws of other countries do not prohibit it if the domestic ratio of an item meets the requirements. They may not disguise Vietnamese goods to export, but they find loopholes in international policies and laws. Many countries know, but cannot prohibit it. Therefore, Chinese goods using a roundabout policy to avoid high taxes from the US have still been able to enter the US in the past few years," said Mr. Vu Quoc Chinh.
According to Mr. Chinh, the problem for Vietnam is to tighten the recognition of origin of goods. On the one hand, we must be smart and have stricter policies on goods from China. On the other hand, there must be regular post-inspection work after granting investment licenses, on raw materials, and on labor use. "The risk of Chinese goods evading origin and entering Vietnam is very high due to the geographical distance being too close. Warning work must be carried out regularly by the Ministry of Industry and Trade to prevent it," said Mr. Chinh.
Sharing the same view, Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang added: "The number of goods exported from Vietnam to the US that are being put on the list of trade defense tax warnings is increasing. This is a big warning that the domestic trade sector must pay attention to. It is necessary to warn early and prevent from afar. Because when discovered, the commercial reputation of Vietnamese goods in major markets will be affected."
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, by the end of November 2023, Vietnam's export goods were the subject of 239 investigations. In 2023, Vietnam's export goods will face more investigations and trade defense measures from foreign countries.
The Vietnam Trade Defense Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) said that the number of cases applying trade defense measures to Vietnam's export goods is increasing rapidly. If in the period of 2001 - 2011 there were only 50 cases, then in the period of 2012 - 2022 it increased 3.5 times to 172 cases.
The WTO and Integration Center said that in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the products that were often sued were mainly those with large export turnover, strong export positions or were key export products, such as seafood and footwear. However, in recent times, the number of products and sectors of the industry that were sued for trade defense has expanded, up to nearly 40 products, including products with medium and small export value and volume, such as lawn mowers, honey, cigarette wrappers, staplers, etc.
Source link
Comment (0)