| Coffee price forecast for July 8, 2024: Will it continue to rise? Coffee price forecast for July 9, 2024: Will it continue to rise towards a new price level? |
Coffee prices in the domestic market on July 10, 2024, are projected to continue rising. Several industry experts indicate that the main drivers behind this price increase are the depletion of domestic supply and the continued high global Robusta prices. Although Brazil is entering its peak harvest season, global investors are concerned about low yields in Vietnam's next crop year, contributing to the continued rise in Robusta coffee prices.
Vietnam's coffee supply is insufficient, while speculators are beginning to hoard goods, so coffee prices are forecast to continue rising in the third quarter. In addition, reduced coffee supply from major exporting countries worldwide due to weather conditions, such as Brazil, will likely lead to further price increases in the coming period, according to VICOFA.
These factors are expected to bring "joy" to coffee farmers. Compared to the times when coffee prices fluctuated between 30,000 and 40,000 VND/kg in previous years, current coffee prices have tripled and are considered a golden season for coffee. With high prices, many farmers are enthusiastically increasing investment in fertilizers, improving their gardens, and expanding their planting areas... in order to increase production.
In the domestic market, as of 4:30 AM on July 9, 2024, according to www.giacaphe.com, the price of domestic coffee ranges from 123,500 to 124,600 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 124,300 VND/kg, with the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province at 124,600 VND/kg.
Specifically, the purchase price of coffee in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 124,100 VND, in Pleiku and La Grai it is 124,000 VND/kg; in Kon Tum province the price is 124,100 VND/kg; in Dak Nong province the coffee is purchased at the highest price of 124,600 VND/kg.
In Lam Dong province, in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, and Lam Ha, the price of bulk green coffee beans (green coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) is 123,500 VND/kg.
Today, July 9th, coffee prices in Dak Lak province are as follows: in Cu M'gar district, coffee is being purchased at approximately 124,100 VND/kg, while in Ea H'leo district and Buon Ho town, the price is the same at 124,000 VND/kg.
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| London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
World coffee prices updated at 8:45 PM on July 9, 2024 (Vietnam time) on the London exchange: Robusta coffee futures contracts for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange were at 4,503 USD/ton, up 155 USD from the beginning of the trading session. The November 2024 contract was 4,324 USD/ton, up 148 USD; the January 2025 contract was 4,127 USD/ton, up 137 USD; and the March 2025 contract was 3,979 USD/ton, up 132 USD.
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| New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
Specifically, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York exchange today, at 8:45 PM on July 9, 2024, increased across all contract periods, fluctuating between 238.30 and 246.25 cents/lb.
Specifically, the September 2024 delivery contract was 246.25 cents/lb, up 11.90 cents/lb from the start of the session. The December 2024 contract was 243.50 cents/lb, up 11.50 cents/lb; the March 2024 contract was 240.90 cents/lb, up 11.05 cents/lb; and the May 2025 contract was 238.30 cents/lb, up 11.05 cents/lb.
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| Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com) |
Brazilian Arabica coffee prices today, at 8:45 PM on July 9, 2024, increased sharply. Specifically, the July 2024 delivery contract was $296.90/ton (up 2.70%); the September 2024 contract was $299.15/ton (up 13.15%); the December 2024 contract was $297.00/ton (up 5.06%); and the March 2025 contract was $279.85/ton (up 2.62%).
Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe exchange (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.
Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York exchange) opens at 4:15 PM and closes at 1:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.
For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil floor, it will open from 19:00 – 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.
According to analysts at Citi Research, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will implement several large interest rate cuts, starting in the next few months and continuing until next summer.
In a note last Friday, Citi's research department projected that the Fed would cut interest rates eight times in a row, each time by 25 basis points. This would begin in September of this year and continue until July 2025.
According to analysts at Citi Research, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will conduct several large interest rate cuts, each by 25 basis points. These cuts will begin in September 2024 and continue until July 2025.
Tight supply due to slow exports from Vietnam, along with weather issues, has supported rising coffee prices. Supply in the world's leading Robusta producing country will remain scarce until the next harvest accelerates in November.
Traders believe that the sluggish export situation and supply shortages in Vietnam could last until November this year, when the new crop begins to be harvested.
According to traders, strong buying demand in Vietnam at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 will make it difficult for spot prices to fall. However, they also note that the Robusta coffee harvest in Indonesia is gradually accelerating, and is expected to improve significantly compared to the previous season.
Volcafe has forecast a global Robusta coffee deficit of 4.6 million bags in 2024/25, which, while smaller than the 9 million bag deficit in the 2023/24 season, marks the fourth consecutive year of Robusta coffee deficit, continuing to impact the market.
Certified sorted Arabica coffee stocks held on the New York market reportedly fell by 9,270 bags last Friday, bringing the total to 811,359 bags.
*Information for reference only
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