Oil enters a new phase of 'uncertainty'.

The global oil market could enter a new period of intense volatility in the coming months. “The market could be extremely volatile,” warned Gary Pedersen, head of Gunvor, the world’s fourth-largest independent crude oil trading firm.

Oil rig in Luling, Texas, USA. Photo: THX/VNA

According to him, the period from April to June 2026 will be particularly sensitive. On one side, the flames of conflict in the Middle East could always drive prices up sharply, while on the other, the seasonal weakening of demand could cause prices to plummet at any time. Caught between these two opposing forces, oil prices no longer move according to the usual logic of supply and demand, but are increasingly driven by anxiety and sensational headlines in international media.

Gary Pedersen's warning perfectly reflects the current state of the global oil market: a lack of direction and an abundance of variables. Normally, spring is a quiet period for the oil market. Winter heating demand has passed, while the peak summer travel season has yet to arrive. But this year, that quiet period is overshadowed by geopolitical instability. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that oil demand in the second quarter of 2026 could fall by as much as 1.5 million barrels per day – the deepest decline since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Meanwhile, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was more cautious, only forecasting a reduction of 500,000 barrels per day. Such a large discrepancy in forecasts shows that even the world's most data-driven organizations are struggling to accurately predict the market. When buyers are unsure of their needs and sellers are uncertain about how much to pump, oil prices are highly volatile: sharp increases followed by deep drops within just a few trading sessions. In other words, oil is lacking the most valuable asset for financial markets: certainty.

While many businesses are shrinking in the face of uncertainty, Gunvor has demonstrated an age-old truth: where there is high volatility, there is high profit. In just the first three months of 2026, Gunvor raked in over $1.6 billion in gross profit, nearly equaling its entire 2025 earnings. This is not only an impressive business result, but also an indicator that professional traders are benefiting from extreme fluctuations in energy prices.

Mr. Pedersen stated that Gunvor had prepared early for a conflict scenario in Iran, drawing lessons from previous crises where the company was caught off guard by sudden price increases. 2022 is an unforgettable year for the energy market, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict pushed gas prices to unprecedented levels. For Gunvor, that lesson has become strategic capital: prepare for risk, maintain liquidity, hunt for arbitrage opportunities, and capitalize on market distortions. Gunvor currently holds over $4 billion in assets in the U.S., and this market accounts for approximately one-third of the group's total trading activity.

Amidst recent energy seismic shifts, the United States has increasingly emerged as the world's safety valve: a major oil producer, a leading exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and a financial system deep enough to attract global capital. When the Middle East is in turmoil, American oil becomes more reliable. When Russia is under sanctions, American gas becomes more necessary. And when the world faces refining capacity shortages, American refineries instantly become money-making machines.

The conflict in Iran has severely disrupted supplies from the Gulf region, stifling refining capacity in the Middle East and driving up diesel and jet fuel prices. While many refineries in Asia are facing material shortages and European refineries are experiencing eroded profits from rising input costs, US refineries are enjoying a double benefit. They have access to cheap domestic crude oil, additional imports from Canada and Mexico, and are selling fuel at significantly higher international prices. According to the consulting firm Rystad, US refining margins have risen to $20–25 per barrel, nearly double the levels seen in early March 2026. The structural advantages that the US has quietly built over more than a decade – from shale oil and pipeline infrastructure to refining capacity – are now fully realized.

On Wall Street, year-to-date, ExxonMobil's stock price has risen 21%, Chevron's 18%, and the group of oil refining companies such as Valero Energy, HF Sinclair, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 have increased by an average of 27%. These figures represent investors' "vote of confidence" in the American energy sector amidst global turmoil. But despite the companies' big wins, American consumers are not immune to the storm. Gasoline prices at gas stations have risen sharply, threatening voter sentiment ahead of the midterm elections in November.

According to observers, in the short term, world oil prices will continue to be on a tightrope. If tensions in the Middle East escalate, oil prices could surge dramatically due to concerns about supply. But if the global economy slows and demand is as forecast by the IEA, prices could also fall sharply due to oversupply. The most dangerous thing is that these two scenarios could unfold consecutively in the same quarter: rising due to conflict, then falling due to weak demand. When the oil market moves based on news headlines rather than economic fundamentals, the world is entering a period where a missile, a sanction, or a political statement can be worth more than a million barrels of oil offshore.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/dau-mo-buoc-vao-giai-doan-bat-anmoi-20260421151319015.htm