Baoquocte.vn. A squadron of F-16s could soon be deployed over Ukraine.
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| The F-16 jet is a weapon that Ukraine is in dire need of to implement strategies against Russia. (Source: National Interest) |
The only problem is time
After months of active lobbying by Ukraine, the United States on May 19 gave the green light to Ukrainian pilots to use fourth-generation fighter jets, sparking hope.
However, don't expect to see F-16s over Ukraine anytime soon. Allies need more time. At the moment, some of the top candidates to supply US-developed fighter jets – including the Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark – have only pledged to help train Ukrainian pilots with no further promises.
Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra told reporters in Brussels on May 22: “For now, let's make sure we are making the most of the training activities. What the future holds, remains to be seen."
Some countries like Belgium have even stated frankly that they do not have spare F-16s to supply Ukraine.
However, this scenario was repeated over and over again as Western allies gradually upgraded the weapons they transferred to Ukraine.
There is hesitation at first, but then a great power—usually the United States—will take the first step, followed by a coalition of European states that almost simultaneously imitate the United States.
“This is an indication of how the United States has supported Ukraine in stages,” said Seth Jones, director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Currently, no country is willing to send the first jet to Ukraine. That could easily change over time. Ben Hodges, former U.S. Army General in Europe, said that "delivering the F-16 will really make a difference."
Where are the jets now?
The delay in deciding whether to deliver the jets to Ukraine involved both political and technical considerations.
Few countries have a surplus of F-16s, and the modern machines require significant training and logistics.
The US must also authorize other countries to re-export the aircraft. "The Netherlands is being considered as the first candidate that can supply this fighter," said Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov.
Meanwhile, a spokesman for the Dutch Ministry of Defense said that the country currently has 24 operational F-16s, "deployable" and "will continue to be in service until mid-2024. Then they will be ready for another destination.” In addition, the Netherlands also has 18 F-16s that are "no longer in service" and "could also be supplied to another destination".
The spokesman noted that 12 of these 18 F-16s were originally scheduled to be delivered to a private company, but this was delayed.
As for the US, it can be predicted that the "father" of the F-16 still maintains their huge fleet of F-16s. However, when asked if there was a possibility that the US would supply this plane to Ukraine, US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall replied: "I don't know. I mean, I think there are some possibilities.”
In addition, Britain has actively supported the establishment of a "jet alliance" of the West. But the country itself does not have any F-16s to "donate" to Ukraine.
Several other countries have also signaled that they are only ready for pilot training.
Polish President Andrzej Duda said last week that the country would not hand over its most modern jets. The country currently has a fleet of 48 F-16s.
The US helps but cannot "one day or two"
Washington has shown that while it is currently assisting Ukraine with access to the F-16, the goal of this decision is to help Kiev in the long term – and will not have an immediate impact on the battlefield.
US Air Force Secretary Kendall said on May 22, "It will take several months for Ukraine to receive F-5 fighters and there are many issues that need to be resolved. It will help Ukraine strengthen its combat capabilities, but it will not be a game changer.”
The Allies are currently working on a plan to train Ukrainian pilots.
A spokesman for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (whose country does not have F-16s) said on May 22 that Berlin and Washington were "closely coordinating" on this issue, but stressed that the training program would have to " take months or even years, depending on the experience of the pilots.”
The spokesman also said the Spangdahlem and Ramstein air bases in Germany could be possible locations for training. The spokesman declined to comment on specific assistance Berlin could provide.
Ukraine and the pledge
Although there were earlier concerns that the West's supply of advanced fighter jets to Ukraine could escalate the conflict, officials seem to have dismissed those concerns.
According to a European diplomat, Ukraine can use the F-16 in different ways, such as monitoring and protecting its airspace, and also commits not to conduct any bombing campaign on Russian territory.
Over the weekend, US President Joe Biden said he had received "firm assurance" from his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky that the jets would not be used on Russian territory.
However, he also added that "they can use this aircraft anywhere in the territory of Ukraine where Russian occupation forces are located".
Russian state news agency TASS According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko, Western countries handing over F-16s to Ukraine will have to bear "big risks". That is a message Moscow has given each new phase of Western support.
According to the European diplomat, the US could seriously consider the idea of handing over the F-16 to Ukraine if Kiev fails to achieve significant results in the upcoming attack or if the West finds it unable to deliver. gave Ukraine other necessities and decided to compensate by jet.
When asked about the possibility of Ukraine receiving the F-16 in the fall, a senior Central European defense official was optimistic: "I think it is possible." Similarly, a senior diplomat from Eastern Europe asserted, “Why not?”.
