World coffee prices continue to fall.

World coffee prices continue to face downward pressure as Brazil enters its new harvest season and the outlook for global supply improves, despite low inventories on the ICE exchange.

Báo Công thương•21/05/2026

Global commodity markets closed the trading session on May 20th in the red as selling pressure spread across many product groups. At closing, the MXV-Index fell nearly 1.4%, to 2,925 points. The weakness was mainly concentrated in agricultural products and industrial raw materials as the market began to shift its attention to the outlook for actual supply and demand.

Brazil's harvest is putting pressure on the coffee market.

The global coffee market continued to experience strong selling pressure on both key commodities yesterday. At the close of trading, the price of Arabica coffee for July delivery fell 0.68% to $5,915 per ton; while Robusta coffee for the same delivery period decreased 0.51% to around $3,328 per ton.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), selling pressure remains present in the market as Brazil enters the 2026-2027 harvest season. After a long period focusing on the supply shortage, the market is now shifting its focus to the prospect of new supply from the world's largest coffee producer and exporter.

*World coffee prices fell as supply from Brazil entered its peak harvest season.*

Based on current production assumptions, Brazil's coffee exports in the next crop year could increase by 32-35.5% year-on-year, exceeding 51 million bags. This outlook is helping to alleviate concerns about supply shortages after a prolonged period of soaring prices.

*Estimated bulk green coffee exports from Brazil. Source: MXV*

Furthermore, the latest report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) continues to send positive signals from the physical market. Global coffee exports in March 2026 reached 13.59 million bags, a 1.6% increase compared to the same period last year. For the first six months of the current crop year, total exports reached 70.91 million bags, a 3.3% increase.

Notably, exports from Central America and Mexico increased by 7.1%, reaching 2.3 million bags. Meanwhile, the Asian region, including Vietnam, India, and Indonesia, recorded a stronger increase of 13.1%, reaching 5.82 million bags, mainly due to improved exports from Vietnam.

*Global bulk green coffee exports. Source: MXV*

However, the market has not yet fully shed its cautious stance as the supply buffer on ICE exchanges remains low. Robusta inventories have fallen to 605,160 bags – the lowest level in about two years. Meanwhile, certified Arabica inventories are only around 462,800 bags as of May 18th.

This indicates that, despite more positive supply expectations, the market remains quite sensitive to emerging risks in the new crop year, thereby limiting downward pressure on world coffee prices.

According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), the main reason for the decline in coffee prices is the forecast of record-breaking global coffee production in the 2025-2026 crop year, approximately 180 million bags (60 kg/bag), an increase of nearly 8 million bags compared to the 2024-2025 crop year. Meanwhile, consumption has not fluctuated significantly, reaching 176.85 million bags, 172.58 million bags, and 175.07 million bags respectively in the 2022-2023, 2023-2024, and 2024-2025 crop years.

The Import-Export Department forecasts that in the short term, world coffee prices are expected to continue fluctuating according to supply developments in Brazil and export activities of major producing countries. Robusta coffee prices are supported by limited supply, while Arabica coffee prices continue to face downward pressure from positive crop prospects in Brazil.

In the domestic market, Robusta coffee prices fell from 102,000 VND/kg to fluctuate around 85,500 - 89,200 VND/kg, 24% lower than the average for the same period in 2025. Similarly, domestic Arabica coffee prices also dropped sharply in the first four months of the year, from approximately 148,000 VND/kg to 124,000 - 129,500 VND/kg, a decrease of about 24% compared to the same period last year.

According to data from the Vietnam Customs Department, in the first four months of the year, Vietnam exported approximately 782,017 tons of various types of coffee, an increase of 12% compared to the same period in 2025. However, the export value decreased by 9.8%, reaching 3.6 billion USD. Production in 2026 is projected to exceed demand by about 10 million bags as major producing countries experience bumper harvests.

Corn prices reverse course and fall.

In the agricultural market, world corn prices reversed sharply lower during today's trading session. At the close of trading, July corn futures on the CBOT fell 2%, to $183.3 per ton. Selling pressure increased as speculators collectively reduced their short-term positions following unclear signals from China.

Besides trade factors, the downward trend in oil prices is also putting additional pressure on the corn market through biofuels. The temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East has weakened expectations for ethanol demand – the largest consumer of corn in the US.

On the supply side, new forecasts from World Weather Inc. indicate that rainfall in late May will significantly improve soil moisture in many key U.S. planting areas such as Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, and South Dakota. This is seen as a positive factor supporting the outlook for the new crop and will continue to put pressure on corn prices in the short term.