Global commodity prices are fluctuating in opposite directions.

Commodity market today, June 7, 2024: Raw material prices recover strongly. Commodity market today, June 10, 2024: A series of global raw material prices fall sharply.

Energy and metal prices were predominantly green. Meanwhile, agricultural products and industrial raw materials faced downward pressure. However, overall, buying pressure prevailed, supporting the MXV-Index to close the day with a 0.55% recovery to 2,291 points.

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Oil prices rose to a one-week high.

At the close of trading on June 10th, oil prices regained upward momentum, recovering strongly to their highest level in a week. Specifically, WTI crude oil rose 2.93% to $77.74 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased 2.52% to $81.63 per barrel.

MXV stated that oil prices received strong support from expectations of increased fuel demand during the peak travel season, amid concerns that supply remains tight due to the tightening of oil pumping policies by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).

Energy Price List

Analysts forecast Brent crude oil prices to rise to $86 a barrel this summer amid strong consumer demand that will cause a market deficit of 1.3 million barrels per day in the third quarter, according to a report by Goldman Sachs.

This Wall Street bank has revised its estimate of oil demand growth this year, adding 200,000 barrels per day to 1.25 million barrels per day, highlighting strong demand for aviation fuel.

Goldman Sachs also believes Brent crude oil prices will be supported in the $75/barrel range, due to increased demand for physical crude oil amid lower prices, including in China and the US, to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Over the weekend, the US Department of Energy announced two additional offers for SPR reserves, including 1.5 million barrels for September delivery and an additional 4.5 million barrels for October, November, and December. This fueled a sharp rise in oil prices yesterday.

Energy consulting firm FGE also expects oil prices to recover, averaging around $80 per barrel in the third quarter.

The OPEC+ production cuts during the peak consumption season of the third quarter have significantly supported oil prices. Meanwhile, the output of the world's largest producer, the United States, is projected to decline next year, further highlighting the risk of supply shortages.

According to Bloomberg, US oil production will fall by about 1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025, unless the number of drilling rigs increases significantly. The shale oil boom has propelled the US to produce more crude oil than any other country has ever done, but growth is expected to slow. Surveys suggest US oil production will remain at 12-13 million barrels per day for another 6 to 9 months, and if the number of drilling rigs doesn't significantly increase again, production could continue to decline.

Cotton prices weaken.

Cotton prices fell sharply by nearly 3%, reaching their lowest level in 20 months. Weak US cotton demand, combined with a strengthening US dollar, exerted a double pressure on prices. In its weekly export report ending May 30, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said that cotton exports for the week decreased by 9% compared to the previous week and 27% compared to the average of the past four weeks, to 157,000 bales. The low exports were mainly due to earlier sales declines as demand weakened.

Industrial raw material price list

In addition, the Dollar Index has risen sharply in the last two sessions, making the cost of investing in and holding cotton more expensive. This also significantly limited buying interest in cotton yesterday.

Prices of some other goods