Silver prices continue to break new records, where is the stopping point?

Silver is entering a rare bull market as supply tightens and capital flows into the market. Prices continue to break records, with every inventory report likely to trigger a new rally. The question now is not why is silver rising, but where will it stop?

The silver price "fever" comes from many driving forces.

Breaking out of the price range of 20-30 USD/ounce that had lasted for many years, silver made a spectacular breakthrough in 2025 with an increase of up to 97%. In just two sessions on November 28 and December 1, according to data from the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), the price added another 10%, reaching a historical peak of 59.32 USD/ounce. At this time, Bank of America forecasts that silver could exceed 65 USD/ounce in 2026 - a price that at the beginning of this year, when silver was only fluctuating around 32 USD/ounce, almost no one dared to imagine.

*Silver price listed on COMEX (Source: LSEG)*

According to the International Trade Center (ITC), the US imported 5,100 tonnes of unwrought silver in the first eight months of the year, up 73% year-on-year – a number large enough to suggest that this is no random fluctuation.

The strong flow of silver into the US has had a direct impact on London - the world's largest silver trading center. Inventories have been at a record low, below 800 million ounces for 9 months. London prices are sometimes higher than New York, stimulating traders to move goods to London to profit from the difference, unintentionally causing a shortage in the market and pushing prices past the 53 USD/ounce mark as early as October.

Silver holdings in funds have increased 18% this year, or 187 million ounces, according to the Silver Institute. The iShares Silver Trust alone increased its holdings to 15,800 tonnes, its highest level since 2022. As financial capital piles on top of physical scarcity, the market enters a delicate state where each rally reinforces expectations for further gains.

In Asia, China has unexpectedly boosted its silver exports, with October alone reaching a record 652.8 tonnes, pushing SHFE inventories to their lowest level in nearly a decade. This proves that the supply shortage is not just a story of the US or London, but has become a systemic phenomenon. In Vietnam, the decrease in imports has caused many stores to limit purchases or require deposits, reflecting the impact spreading to the domestic market.

These analyses show that silver prices did not rise due to a single push, but due to many simultaneous forces - from policy, trade, capital flows to physical shortages. It was this resonance that sent silver into a strong bull cycle, when all resistance zones were broken in a short period of time.

The market is "thirsty" for silver is a long-term story

According to Mr. Duong Duc Quang - Deputy General Director of MXV, the most worrying thing now is not only the rapid increase in silver prices, but also the underlying cause of the increase that has not been resolved. The latest data from the Silver Institute shows that 2025 is the fifth consecutive year that the market has a deficit, at 3,659 tons. This situation is no longer a temporary phenomenon, but has become a core problem, causing global supply to be tightened. As industrial demand increases, investors race to hoard and financial capital flows in, the amount of physical silver on the market becomes more limited, opening up room for prices to continue to rise.

Figures from LSEG show that silver inventories at the COMEX warehouse system increased by nearly 50% compared to the same period last year, reaching 14,200 tons at the end of November. This increase is almost equivalent to the amount of silver imported by the US in the first 8 months of the year, suggesting that the US may be "sucking" a large amount of silver from the international market and transferring it directly to the depository as a defense strategy against tough trade policies. However, even this inventory level is only equivalent to one year's demand of the US. If Washington expands trade controls, the supply shortage could last for many years, causing cyclical price pressure.

Silver price continuously breaks the peak, where is the stopping point? - 3

In terms of demand, industries such as electric vehicles, solar panels, and semiconductors all consume large amounts of silver. The US currently imports about 65% of its domestic needs, equivalent to 4,200 tons per year. The possibility of a decrease in demand is almost impossible, regardless of macroeconomic fluctuations or monetary policy.

Meanwhile, the Asian market, especially China, has seen clear signs of shortage. SHFE inventories have fallen to their lowest level in nearly a decade, reflecting real physical supply and demand tensions, not just speculative capital or ETF reactions. With shortages at both ends of the market – the US buying up stocks, China reducing inventories – the silver market is almost out of balance as physical supply cannot keep up with demand.

The FOMO mentality spreads not only among speculators but also affects industrial producers, forcing them to place early orders, sign long-term contracts or increase reserves. In addition, when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is forecast to lower interest rates in 2026, the cost of holding silver decreases, further "heating up" the market.

It can be argued that the current rally in silver reflects a combination of physical scarcity, trade policy, financial capital flows and solid industrial demand. Low inventories in Shanghai (China) and hoarding in the US continue to squeeze supply, while FOMO sentiment may give prices another push. The likelihood of a rapid price decline is low and the market may continue to record new highs in the near term.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/gia-bac-lien-tiep-pha-dinh-dau-la-diem-dung-433309.html