Global commodity prices plummet across the board.

Commodity market today, June 24, 2024: World raw material prices fall sharply. Commodity market today, June 25, 2024: Cocoa prices drop sharply to their lowest level in a month.

Selling pressure prevailed across all four commodity groups: agricultural products, industrial raw materials, metals, and energy. This dragged the MXV-Index down 1.1% to 2,258 points, reaching its lowest level since the beginning of May.

Thị trường hàng hóa hôm nay ngày 26/6/2024: Giá hàng hoá nguyên liệu thế giới đồng loạt lao dốc

Soybean prices plummet amid supply prospects from Argentina.

At the close of trading on June 25, soybean prices plummeted 1.68% to $408.41 per ton. Amid relatively positive supply prospects from Argentina, sellers dominated from the start of the session. The price decline was only partially mitigated by the worsening crop situation in the US last week.

In Argentina, the Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR) stated that the intensity of La Nina is forecast to be milder in the coming months, potentially leading to more rainfall than usual. This is considered a positive sign for Argentina's agricultural sector, as the country frequently faces hot, dry weather during La Nina periods. In 2022, Argentina experienced a historic drought due to La Nina. The end of the year is the time when soybeans in Argentina are sown and enter their initial growth phase, so more rainfall will improve the prospects for the country's oilseed production. This factor exerted significant pressure on soybean prices yesterday.

Agricultural product price list

According to data from the Crop Progress report, the percentage of good/excellent quality soybeans in the US for the week ending June 23rd was 67%, down 3 percentage points from the previous week and lower than the market's expectation of 68%. The decline in quality was due to the crops experiencing intense heat last week, before heavy rains at the end of the week caused localized flooding in many soybean fields. However, experts believe the rains could be a positive sign, as the crops will receive the necessary water for growth after a long period of extreme heat. Therefore, yesterday's Crop Progress report only partially helped to narrow the decline in soybean prices.

The price of two finished commodities, soybean meal and soybean oil, also turned red. Under pressure from the weakening soybean prices, soybean meal prices recorded a 1.73% decrease after yesterday's close. In addition, soybean oil prices fell 2.08% due to pressure from crop prospects in Argentina, the world's largest soybean oil exporter.

Contrary to global price trends, on the domestic market, as recorded yesterday (June 25th), the asking price for imported South American soybean meal arriving at Vietnamese ports showed a slight upward trend. At Cai Lan port, the asking price for soybean meal futures for August and September this year fluctuated around 12,150 – 12,200 VND/kg. Meanwhile, at Vung Tau port, the asking price was lower, fluctuating around 12,000 – 12,050 VND/kg.

The Fed's hawkish statements put pressure on metals.

Red dominated the metal price charts yesterday, with 7 out of 9 commodities experiencing price declines. Increased macroeconomic pressure following a series of hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials weighed on the entire metal market. For precious metals, silver led the decline, falling 2.23% to $28.87 per ounce, its lowest level in over a month. Platinum also fell 1.46%, closing at $999 per ounce.

Metal price list

In a speech yesterday, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stated that the Fed needs to keep policy interest rates stable for some time to control inflation. She also emphasized that the Fed is prepared to raise borrowing costs if necessary. Echoing this sentiment, earlier on Monday, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly also indicated that she does not support cutting interest rates, at least not until policymakers are confident that inflation will sustainably fall to 2%.

These hawkish statements from officials indirectly increased concerns that the Fed was not in a hurry to lower interest rates, causing the US dollar to rise yesterday. The Dollar Index recovered 0.13% to 105.61 points. Rising borrowing costs combined with interest rate risks pushed silver and platinum prices down simultaneously.

For base metals, the strengthening US dollar is also putting pressure on prices. Specifically, the COMEX copper price fell 1.34% to $9,650.72 per ton, its lowest level in over two months.

In addition, sluggish demand remains the main factor putting pressure on copper prices. Copper inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have now exceeded 172,000 tonnes, a six-month high and a 67% increase compared to mid-May. In China, inventories at the Shanghai Exchange remain at their highest level in two years.

According to experts, the slowdown in Chinese manufacturing activity could continue to hinder the consumption of copper and other industrial metals. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate between $9,500 and $9,900 per ton until new economic data from China is available.

Following a similar price trend, LME nickel prices also fell nearly 1% to $17,167 per ton, the lowest level since early April, due to oversupply. According to LME data, nickel inventories there are currently at 92,000 tons, a 40% increase compared to the beginning of this year.

Prices of some other goods