Gold price continuously breaks the peak, surpassing 125 million/tael: The difference with the 'wave' at the beginning of the year

Unlike the gold rush in early 2025 or in 2024, this gold price increase has some differences in that it does not come from sudden buying demand.

Reasons why domestic gold prices continuously break records

Opening the morning trading session on August 21, the price of SJC gold bars was adjusted to a record high: 124.4-125.4 million VND/tael (buy - sell) and maintained until August 22.

Notably, gold rings are also not out of the fever when climbing to 120.7 million VND/tael.

Speaking with VietNamNet reporter, Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan (Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics ) pointed out two core reasons why domestic gold prices continuously broke records, which are due to scarce supply and increasing exchange rates.

According to Mr. Huan, the first and deepest reason is still the supply story. The market is in a state of gold scarcity. "As long as this problem is not solved, all other solutions cannot bring about radical effectiveness," he emphasized.

The second factor is pressure from exchange rates. “In recent days, the USD/VND exchange rate has been continuously increasing. This means that although the world gold price calculated in USD has decreased, when converted to Vietnamese Dong, the price is still anchored at a high level. This is a direct factor that makes it difficult for domestic gold prices to cool down following the world price,” Mr. Huan analyzed.

The gap between world gold prices and domestic gold prices is growing. Photo: Nguyen Hue

The expert said that geopolitical factors and trade tensions in the world are tending to ease - the reason for the decrease in world gold prices. However, they have almost no impact on the Vietnamese market due to internal problems of supply - demand and exchange rates.

With the gap between domestic SJC gold price and world gold price widening to 17-19 million VND/tael, Mr. Huan proposed that there should be breakthrough and fundamental solutions to solve the supply problem.

Specifically, it is necessary to eliminate the monopoly of SJC gold bars, allow the import of raw gold and move towards building a precious metals trading floor, including gold, located in the International Financial Center.

Meanwhile, financial expert Phan Dung Khanh said that this price increase is not accompanied by sudden buying demand like previous "fevers", but is mainly due to the expectations of sellers.

According to Mr. Khanh, unlike the gold rushes in early 2025 or in 2024, this price increase has very different points.

“If you pay close attention, you will see that the market is not as vibrant as before. There are no scenes of people lining up to buy gold. This price increase mainly comes from the expectations of sellers and the low liquidity of the market. Although it continuously reaches new peaks, the level is not too high, from 120 million VND to the peak of 125 million VND/tael.

However, this makes the gap between domestic and world gold prices increasingly widen," Mr. Khanh analyzed.

Forecasting gold prices in the coming time, Mr. Khanh said that if world prices go up, combined with increased domestic demand and expectations, domestic gold prices will continue to increase, but the amplitude will not be large.

However, the expert raised the issue that if the world price does not increase or remains the same, or even decreases, but the domestic gold price still increases, it could be due to speculation. "If so, the state management agency needs to step in to examine and clarify whether there is speculation or price manipulation," said Mr. Khanh.

Don't buy gold yet.

Given the complicated developments of the market, many investors are wondering whether this is the right time to buy. Mr. Huan warned that this is a period with many potential risks.

"If you have gold, it is still a safe haven, but buying at this time will be very risky. Domestic gold prices currently depend largely on 'policy risks'. If there is a decision to allow gold imports and build gold exchanges, gold prices may drop rapidly," Mr. Huan warned.

Instead of gold, investors can consider other channels. “The common trend is that after taking profits in the stock market, money will likely flow to real estate, a channel where prices have not increased sharply in recent times,” he suggested.

According to Mr. Huan, it is difficult to predict domestic gold prices because it depends on upcoming policy management moves. However, the expert believes that the Government will not let this large price difference continue and fundamental solutions to stabilize the market will soon be implemented.

Sharing the same view, financial expert Phan Dung Khanh also noted that, except for those who invest long-term for several years or want to diversify their assets, the rest should not invest short-term or "surf" gold at this time, it will be very risky.

Vietnamnet.vn

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/gia-vang-lien-tuc-pha-dinh-diem-khac-biet-voi-con-song-dau-nam-2434974.html