GRDP growth scenarios

A detailed GRDP growth scenario will serve as a foundation for solid steps towards achieving the province's economic growth targets for 2025. Photo: THANH CHUNG

A detailed, in-depth script.

In 2025, the National Assembly assigned the Government an economic growth target of 6.5-7%, striving for growth of 7-7.5%. However, in Official Dispatch 140/CĐ-TTg dated December 27, 2024, the Prime Minister set a target of double-digit economic growth, higher than the previously set target of 8%.

Just one week after the Prime Minister signed and issued Directive 140, the Chairman of the Provincial People's Committee, Le Ngoc Chau, signed and issued the plan outlining the GRDP growth scenario for 2025 for the province. This is the first time Hai Duong has had such a detailed and in-depth scenario, setting out goals, tasks, and solutions for boosting the economy for each quarter of the year. This demonstrates the decisiveness and urgency of the provincial government's leader in managing the province's overall development.

Accordingly, in 2025, the Provincial People's Committee is determined to successfully achieve the target of double-digit growth in the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), striving for a GRDP of VND 132,632 billion (at constant prices), an increase of 12% compared to 2024 (higher than the target set by the Provincial Party Committee and the Provincial People's Council of over 10% growth).

Based on this overall target, Hai Duong province has set out a growth roadmap for each quarter. According to the detailed data appendix attached to the growth scenario, the province's GRDP in Q1/2025 will reach VND 30,209 billion, an increase of 11% compared to the same period last year; in Q2/2025, GRDP will reach VND 32,635 billion, an increase of 11.8%; in Q3/2025, GRDP will reach VND 32,428 billion, an increase of 13.7%; and in Q4/2025, GRDP will reach VND 37,360 billion, an increase of 11.5%.

Graphic illustrating some of the target indicators outlined in the detailed GRDP growth scenario for 2025.

For each quarter, the GRDP growth scenario clearly identifies the growth factors in each region, forecasts, analyzes, and assesses the factors influencing growth. Along with that, it outlines a series of key tasks and solutions for departments, sectors, and localities.

In the first quarter of 2025, the Provincial People's Committee requested that the time for processing administrative procedures for issuing investment registration certificates be shortened to 8 days (compared to the regulated 15 days), except for cases requiring reporting to competent authorities.

The time for issuing construction permits and permits for repair and renovation has been reduced by 5 days (to 15 days); the time for appraising feasibility study reports, or adjusting feasibility study reports, has been reduced by 3 days (to 17 days).

In the first quarter of 2025 alone, many specific tasks were outlined to promote the disbursement of public investment capital and attract investment... Photo: THANH CHUNG

Urge industrial park infrastructure investors to accelerate the construction progress of industrial park infrastructure. Focus on attracting investment to Lai Vu Industrial Park and the expanded Phuc Dien Industrial Park.

Relevant departments and units should develop scenarios for the implementation and disbursement of public investment capital in 2025. The goal is to disburse approximately 1,958 billion VND of public investment capital from the state budget in the first quarter, reaching 18.7% of the total planned allocation.

Completed projects and put into operation the Intelligent Operations Monitoring Center (IOC), the Cybersecurity Monitoring Center (SOC); the BigData platform for analyzing, synthesizing, and processing data - the province's shared data warehouse; the virtual assistant platform on the provincial administrative procedure information system; the Open Data Portal, the Foreign Affairs Information Portal, and the Investment Promotion website…

In January 2025, complete the dossiers and procedures to submit to the Provincial People's Committee for approval of the investment policy for the urban, commercial, and mixed-use area project in the center of Hai Duong City (the Porcelain Factory area), along with two non-budgetary investment projects: the construction of a logistics port in Kinh Mon and a centralized waste treatment plant with a capacity of 1,000 tons/day in Thanh Ha.

According to the plan, by 2025 Hai Duong will attract foreign direct investment (FDI) of over US$1 billion and domestic investment of over VND 8,500 billion. Construction will commence on 20 key projects and 7 social housing development projects (corresponding to 4,515 apartments)...

According to the detailed GRDP growth scenario, Hai Duong will start construction on 7 social housing development projects in 2025, corresponding to 4,515 apartments. Photo: NHAN CHINH

For a strong economy in Hai Duong

2025 is the final year of the 2021-2025 five-year socio-economic development plan, a year of special significance as it marks a time for acceleration and breakthroughs, laying the foundation and prerequisites for the implementation of the 2026-2030 socio-economic development plan. Striving for double-digit economic growth nationwide is not only a challenge but also a strong aspiration for the country in the new era – an era of national progress.

Regarding Hai Duong province, Chairman of the Provincial People's Committee Le Ngoc Chau emphasized and determined that 2025 is the final year of the term, requiring accelerated progress, breakthroughs, and focused efforts to successfully achieve the socio-economic development goals of the entire 2020-2025 term. This includes effectively reorganizing the administrative apparatus and successfully organizing Party Congresses at all levels leading up to the 14th National Congress of the Party.

These are tasks that the entire political system, the whole population, and the business community must work together to implement, seizing the best opportunities to further develop Hai Duong and move faster towards the goal of becoming a modern industrial province before 2030. To accomplish these tasks, it requires Party committees and governments at all levels in the province to innovate their thinking, be decisive in leadership and direction, and create new momentum and enthusiasm.

The quality of the GRDP growth scenario for 2025 shows a strong breakthrough; departments, sectors, and localities need to make strenuous efforts to implement tasks decisively with the spirit of completing the set targets earlier and better. Photo: MAI ANH

A prominent new feature in the leadership and direction of the Provincial People's Committee in 2025 is the development of detailed scenarios for socio-economic management on a quarterly basis, with scenarios for each sector, from public investment to budget revenue.

In fact, Hai Duong has been implementing growth scenarios for many years. However, in response to the government's requirement to strive for double-digit economic growth, the provincial People's Committee leadership has directed advisory agencies such as the Provincial People's Committee Office, the Department of Planning and Investment, the Statistics Department, etc., to innovate in scenario development, aiming to create a strong breakthrough in leadership and management.

Therefore, the quality of this year's GRDP growth scenario has made a strong breakthrough, with specific tasks, projects, and implementation timelines assigned to each department, sector, and locality.

“The target of achieving 12% GRDP growth in 2025 is challenging, but not impossible. After reviewing the projects and works expected to become operational this year, we find this to be a feasible goal that can be achieved with strong determination,” shared Le Viet Hung, Deputy Director of the Provincial Statistics Department.

Analysis of each sector shows that agriculture and forestry basically meet growth targets if weather and disease conditions develop favorably. Localities make maximum use of land for planting the spring and autumn crops, and prevent disease outbreaks.

The industrial sector is still falling short of its growth targets, but Hai Duong can certainly expect upcoming projects to operate smoothly and stably. Favorable export markets will help the industrial sector achieve even higher growth.

The construction sector will be a breakthrough point in this year's growth scenario. Departments, agencies, and localities need to focus on improving land clearance, shortening the time for appraisal and licensing of investments; and promoting the disbursement of public investment capital to achieve a high rate from the early months of the year.

The service sector needs to focus on stimulating consumer demand, strengthening e-commerce management; supporting shopping mall projects to become operational soon; and developing tourism associated with cultural festivals.

In 2025, Hai Duong will focus on stimulating consumer demand, strengthening e-commerce management, and implementing other tasks to promote the development of the service sector and contribute to increased budget revenue. Photo: NHAN CHINH

"Departments, sectors, and localities need to make strenuous efforts to decisively implement tasks with the spirit of completing them earlier and better than the set targets, to compensate for some tasks that are delayed due to other reasons. Only then can we successfully achieve the 12% growth target," Mr. Hung added.

According to Nguyen Trong Tue, Director of the Hai Duong Department of Finance, the results of state budget revenue collection in 2024 showed total domestic revenue of VND 26,156 billion, exceeding the forecast by 55% and increasing by 36% compared to 2023; all 16/16 revenue items exceeded the forecast. The high rate of increase in state budget revenue, positive changes in production and business activities, and a warming real estate market... are the basis for building a scenario for budget revenue in 2025. Regarding the budget revenue scenario, the Director of the Department of Finance believes that policies supporting businesses and taxpayers, such as reducing value-added tax and environmental protection tax on gasoline and lubricants, will continue to be implemented in 2025, creating conditions for taxpayers to have working capital and promoting the development of production and business activities.

The provincial tax department has set a goal of reviewing businesses with investment projects in the province that are currently paying taxes in other provinces, in order to guide them in declaring and paying taxes to the provincial budget. In addition, many investment projects will expire in 2025, meaning the actual amount of tax paid to the state budget will be higher than in 2024.

“The tax sector has also identified one of the key tasks to be prioritized in 2025 as collecting taxes on e-commerce business activities or on digital platforms. In addition, many real estate projects completing land clearance in 2025 will contribute to increased revenue from land use fees. These are key areas contributing to ensuring the target of increasing state budget revenue in Hai Duong in 2025,” analyzed Nguyen Trong Tue, Director of the Department of Finance.

HA KIEN

Source: https://baohaiduong.vn/kich-ban-tang-truong-grdp-kim-chi-nam-phat-trien-kinh-te-hai-duong-nam-2025-402893.html