AI models help predict major earthquakes months in advance.

Early earthquake prediction will help minimize damage - Photo: SciTechDaily

The study was led by geophysicist and data scientist Társilo Girona of the Institute for Geophysics, University of Alaska Fairbanks (USA). Geologist Kyriaki Drymoni of Ludwig-Maximilians University in Munich (Germany) is a co-author.

Their method for early earthquake detection, based on machine learning, was published in late August in the journal Nature Communications .

The authors wrote a computer algorithm to search data for the detection of unusual seismic activity. An algorithm is a set of computer instructions that teaches a program how to interpret data, learn from it, and make informed predictions or decisions.

The study focuses on two major earthquakes: the Anchorage earthquake in Alaska in 2018, with a magnitude of 7.1, and the Ridgecrest earthquake in California in 2019, also with a magnitude of 7.1.

The team discovered that before each earthquake, certain areas of south-central Alaska and southern California experienced unusually low-level seismic activity lasting about three months.

"Modern seismic networks generate massive datasets that, when properly analyzed, can provide valuable insights into the early warning signs of seismic events," Girona said.

"Advances in machine learning and high-performance computing could play a transformative role, helping researchers identify meaningful patterns that may signal an impending earthquake," he added.

The authors state that the algorithm will be tested in near real-time scenarios to identify and address potential challenges to earthquake prediction. They also add that the method should not be applied in new areas without training the algorithm with historical seismic data from that area.

"Accurate forecasts can save lives and minimize economic damage by providing early warning that allows for timely evacuation and preparation," Girona emphasized.

"However, the inherent uncertainty in earthquake forecasting also raises significant ethical and practical questions. False alarms can lead to unnecessary panic, disrupt the economy, and erode public trust, while erroneous predictions can have catastrophic consequences," he added.

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/mo-hinh-ai-giup-du-bao-dong-dat-lon-truoc-nhieu-thang-2024091312040489.htm