Vietnam's economy is on track

Based on the results achieved, Government reports and assessments of international institutions all predict that the Vietnamese economy is on track to achieve its ambitious goals.

The Prime Minister has just continued to issue a directive on promoting domestic market development and stimulating consumption.

How much will GDP grow in the third quarter?

According to the scenario developed by the Ministry of Finance , after the GDP growth rate of 7.52% in the first 6 months, in order to achieve 8% growth for the whole year, the GDP growth rate in the third quarter must reach 8.3%; and in the fourth quarter, the figure is 8.5%. To achieve 8.3-8.5% growth, in the spirit of Resolution No. 226/NQ-CP, the GDP growth rate in the third quarter must reach 8.9-9.2%, and in the fourth quarter it must be 8-8.1%.

This is a very high growth rate in the context of the global economy and Vietnam still facing many challenges. However, in the September macroeconomic report, the Research Division of MBS Securities Joint Stock Company (MBS) said that despite the risks of tariffs and global political and economic instability, Vietnam still recorded positive results in August 2025 and the first 8 months of the year.

Government reports and assessments of international institutions also highly appreciated the results that the Vietnamese economy has achieved in the first 8 months of 2025. Many macroeconomic indicators are very positive, such as total registered foreign direct investment (FDI) reaching over 26.1 billion USD, up 27.3% over the same period, realized FDI capital of about 15.4 billion USD, up 8.8%; exports reaching 305.96 billion USD, up 14.8%; consumption recovered positively, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue increased by 9.4%; international visitors reached over 13.9 million arrivals, up 21.7%; Industrial Production Index (IIP) increased by 8.5%, in which the processing and manufacturing industry continued to grow by double digits, reaching a growth rate of 10%...

Following an impressive 7.5% growth in 1H25 and expectations of support from increased public investment, we revise up our full-year GDP growth forecast to 7.5% (from our previous forecast of 6.9%; compared to 7.09% in 2024), with growth expected to reach 7.6% yoy in 3Q25 and 7.2% yoy in 4Q25.

Source: UOB forecast

Based on those figures, MBS forecasts that GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 will reach 8.6-8.9%. “This shows that the country is still on track to achieve its ambitious goal,” MBS experts said.

UOB Bank also has a positive assessment of the Vietnamese economy, according to a recently published report. The bank's experts said that despite tariff risks and uncertainties, the Vietnamese economy still shows resilience and dynamism. In addition, export activities are particularly strong, although there are potential risks if demand from the US weakens due to tariff price pressure.

According to UOB forecast, Vietnam's economy will grow 7.6% in the third quarter. This figure, although not reaching the economic scenario, is still a positive number.

The final figures on Vietnam's economic growth in the third quarter of 2025 and the first nine months of 2025 will be officially announced early next week. However, the growth rate is forecast to be positive. When reporting to the Government in early September 2025, Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang said that, in general assessment of the implementation results of the 2025 Plan, it is expected that all 15/15 main targets will meet and exceed the set targets. In particular, GDP growth in 2025 is estimated to reach at least 8%, meeting the target set by the Central Government and the National Assembly. If so, GDP growth in the third quarter will be a positive number.

To keep the economy on track

The third quarter figures will have a significant impact on the overall picture of the economy in 2025. Similarly, in the fourth quarter, starting today (October 1), great efforts will be needed to keep the economy on track.

So what will be the driving force for the economy to achieve a growth rate of 8.3-8.5% this year? Many solutions have been proposed by the Government, including renewing traditional growth drivers and promoting new growth drivers. The important thing now is to resolutely implement them.

That is also the reason why, after the directives on promoting disbursement of public investment capital; promoting exports, developing foreign markets, the Prime Minister has just continued to issue directives on promoting domestic market development, stimulating consumption, and promoting economic growth.

According to the Prime Minister's direction, to stimulate consumption, it is necessary to organize a special communication campaign to promote the Campaign for Vietnamese people to prioritize using Vietnamese goods to affirm the quality of domestically produced products and goods; promote tourism programs, combined with cultural events and festivals; promote the development of cultural and entertainment industries; provide credit packages to support production - business and consumption with favorable loan procedures and conditions...

Thus, the Prime Minister has issued a directive to promote the traditional “trio” of growth drivers. In particular, promoting public investment disbursement and spending all 1 quadrillion VND of public investment this year is very important.

Along with that, the important thing, according to Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong, member of the National Assembly's Economic and Financial Committee, is to promote the role of "seed capital" of public investment, thereby attracting private capital, promoting investment in the whole society. "When the State invests capital, it will create trust and expectation, attracting many other investors to participate," Mr. Cuong said at the Vietnam Economic Forum with the theme "What is the driving force for GDP growth of 8.3-8.5%" held recently.

According to Mr. Cuong, there are currently more than 2,200 projects with a total capital of up to 6 quadrillion VND that are stalled. If the obstacles for the projects are resolved, this huge resource will be immediately pumped into the economy.

In Resolution No. 226/NQ-CP, the Government also set a target for the second half of 2025 to disburse 100% of public investment capital; mobilize private investment capital of about 1.5 million billion VND; attract FDI capital of 18 billion USD, disburse 16 billion USD; and implement investment capital from other sources of about 165,000 billion VND. This resource, if mobilized and used effectively according to the plan, will contribute significantly to bringing the economy in line with the set scenario.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/nen-kinh-te-viet-nam-dang-di-dung-kich-ban-d398462.html