Chelsea (left) and Aston Villa are locked in a fierce rivalry - Photo: REUTERS
Any of these five teams could drop out of the top five if they fail to win. These are Man City (68 points), Newcastle (66 points), Chelsea (66 points), Aston Villa (66 points), and Nottingham Forest (65 points).
Convoluted scenarios
The fact that the Premier League has been given an extra Champions League spot through the domestic league standings (changing the race for the top 4 to the race for the top 5) has made the competition even more dramatic. Aside from champions Liverpool and Arsenal, who have already secured their places, the aforementioned teams all face incredibly unpredictable developments on the final day of the season.
Chelsea currently sit in fifth place – the most precarious position, with countless unbelievable scenarios possible. A loss could see Chelsea drop out of the top five if Aston Villa win. But strangely, even a loss to Nottingham Forest could see Chelsea finish in the top five if Aston Villa also lose, and Newcastle lose by four goals or more.
That's a highly unlikely scenario, but it somewhat reflects the drama of the race. In that scenario, Man City has the most advantages. Theoretically, a draw in the final round would still see Man City lose their top 5 spot if the three teams behind them all win. In that case, Man City would be level on points with the sixth-placed Aston Villa – 69 points. But with a vastly superior goal difference (+26 compared to the current +9), Man City would practically secure qualification if they draw with Fulham.
Nevertheless, playing away at Fulham still poses many unpredictable dangers for Pep Guardiola's team. Man City has been too inconsistent this season, so losing to a tough team like Fulham, who are playing in a relaxed state, is a real possibility.
Despite having home advantage, Newcastle, who are two points behind Man City, face a tough opponent in Everton. However, securing three points against a team known for their defensive counter-attacking style is no easy feat, especially considering their key striker Isak is not yet fully recovered from injury. A draw would see Newcastle drop out of the top five if two of the three chasing teams behind them win.
Man City (in blue) are still waiting for a Champions League spot - Photo: REUTERS
The crucial match
The match considered the "final" of this last round is the clash between Nottingham Forest and Chelsea. Thanks to their superior goal difference (+20 compared to +9) against Aston Villa, Chelsea will maintain their position in the top 5 if they win against Nottingham Forest. If they draw, Chelsea will have to hope that Aston Villa doesn't win or that Newcastle also drops points.
Nottingham Forest's chances are even slimmer as they must beat Chelsea and hope that either Newcastle or Aston Villa drop points. The advantage for this "dark horse" is playing at home. Remember, Nottingham Forest has an excellent record against the big teams this season.
Another crucial match in the race is Aston Villa's away game against Manchester United. Aston Villa have a very poor head-to-head record against Man United, losing 4 and drawing 1 in their last 5 encounters. However, the situation is completely different this time, as they are full of momentum with 3 consecutive wins in the Premier League. In contrast, Man United are completely demoralized after their defeat in the Europa League final.
Aston Villa are in a passive position in the title race, so their goal will be to secure all three points at Old Trafford. This should be relatively easy, as Manchester United have been losing almost every game recently. Even a draw would give Aston Villa a chance if Nottingham win and Newcastle lose.
A series of complex scenarios unfold before kick-off in the "judgment" round. Teams will have to play while simultaneously monitoring the results of their competitors.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/ngay-phan-quyet-cua-premier-league-20250525082202806.htm
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