Capital demand from customers is recovering, credit has recorded positive growth momentum and is expected to grow stronger in the second half of 2025.
Positive signals from credit flows
Credit is showing clear signs of recovery in the first half of 2025, with steady growth and spreading across many segments. According to Mr. Nguyen Phi Lan, Director of the Department of Forecasting, Statistics - Monetary and Financial Stabilization (State Bank), as of June 18, 2025, the total outstanding credit balance of the whole system reached 16.73 million billion VND, an increase of 7.14% compared to the end of 2024. This is an encouraging figure, reflecting the gradual return of capital demand in the economy .
Notably, approximately 209,000 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) currently have outstanding loans at credit institutions, mainly commercial banks. This is a group of customers that plays a key role in the production and business ecosystem and has been heavily affected by the pandemic as well as market fluctuations in the 2020-2023 period.
The increase in credit to this group of enterprises not only shows the recovery of the private sector, but also proves the banking effectiveness of support policies implemented by the sector in recent times.
structuring, commercial banks have accompanying businesses through many difficult periods through solutions such as restructuring debt repayment periods, exempting and reducing interest rates, extending debt, and temporarily supporting cash flow after natural disasters and epidemics.
Along with that, efforts to digitize credit processes, improve loan products, shorten procedures, and reduce costs have helped increase access to capital, especially for small and medium enterprises.
Compared to the same period last year, credit this year has made strong progress. If by the end of May 2024, credit in the whole economy had only increased by 2.41%, then by the end of May 2025, the increase had reached 6.52%, nearly three times higher. This is an important basis for the banking industry to expect to complete the credit growth target of 16% in 2025, accompanied by the Government to achieve the minimum GDP growth target of 8%.
Major commercial banks also recorded positive results. At Agribank – the leading bank in the agricultural sector, Ms. Phung Thi Binh, Deputy General Director, said that the bank's outstanding credit balance by the end of June 2025 had increased by more than 7%, on schedule and on target. This year, farmers had a good harvest and prices were stable, so the debt repayment situation was quite positive, contributing to maintaining credit quality at a safe level.
At the joint stock commercial banking sector, the signal is even more positive. Mr. Nguyen Tran Manh Trung, General Director of VietinBank, shared at the first 6-month review conference that the bank's outstanding credit balance has increased by 10% compared to the end of 2024, a very impressive rate.
Capital mobilization also increased by more than 9%, showing a clear improvement in liquidity and market confidence. Meanwhile, ACB, a private bank with a flexible system, also recorded credit growth of 8% in the first half of the year.
This uniform acceleration, from the state-owned commercial banking sector to private banks, reflects the expanding demand for credit in both breadth and depth. Production recovery, increased consumption, and increased capital demand in the agricultural, processing and service sectors create real traction for credit, instead of just formal growth.
If this trend continues, in the second half of the year, especially during the peak business season at the end of the year, credit is likely to accelerate more strongly. This is an important foundation for the State Bank to continue to gradually loosen administrative measures and credit management in a market-oriented manner, as mentioned in recent policy meetings.
Positive outlook for the second half of the year
Signals from the money market and commercial banks show great expectations for credit acceleration in the last months of 2025. One of the strong supporting factors is that interest rates are likely to remain stable, even continuing to have a slight downward trend.
According to bank leaders, the policy of reducing input costs, especially deposit interest rates, is being promoted, creating room to stabilize or lower lending rates in the context of recovering credit demand.
From positive growth results in the first half of the year, banks expect loan demand to continue to increase in the second half of the year, which is considered the peak season for business, production and consumption.
Agribank representative said that by the end of June 2025, the bank had achieved a credit growth rate of more than 7% on schedule. In the coming time, Agribank will continue to promote credit to the agricultural and rural areas and expand green credit, an area that is receiving many priorities in the direction of sustainable development.
Ms. Phung Thi Binh, Deputy General Director of Agribank, shared that the bank is actively implementing preferential credit programs, especially the social housing loan package and for young customers under 35 years old, with an interest rate of only 5.5%/year for the first 3 years. In the near future, Agribank will also consider reducing the interest rate by another 1.5 percentage points to support people in accessing housing.
According to Ms. Binh, when legal problems in the real estate sector are gradually resolved and supply to the market increases, demand for housing credit will grow strongly, leading to the development of consumer and production credit.
“Normally, credit in the second half of the year will increase more strongly than the first two quarters. Currently, lending interest rates are still stable at a low level, and capital demand from businesses and people is also gradually improving,” said Ms. Binh. With a bad debt ratio currently below 1.5%, Agribank aims to bring this ratio below 1% by the end of this year, a significant step forward compared to the 2% level at the end of 2024.
At VietinBank, Mr. Nguyen Tran Manh Trung, General Director, said that the bank is continuing to promote its role as a leading state-owned commercial bank, focusing credit resources on core production and business sectors and growth drivers.
In addition to implementing preferential loans according to Resolution 33/2023/NQ-CP on removing difficulties for the real estate market, VietinBank also implements preferential loan packages for young people with interest rates of only 5-6%/year.
Similarly, at ACB, Mr. Tu Tien Phat, General Director, said that credit growth in the first half of the year was impressive, partly due to a marked improvement in customers' capital needs. "Lending interest rates are stable, even lower than at the end of the first quarter of 2025. This is a favorable condition to stimulate credit demand, especially for small and medium enterprises, people borrowing to buy houses or for consumption," Mr. Phat said. ACB aims for credit growth for the whole year to reach 16-18%, with interest rates maintained at a reasonable and competitive level.
According to the results of the business trend survey in the third quarter of 2025 conducted by the State Bank, the interest rates for mobilization and lending in VND continued to decrease slightly in the second quarter, in which the lending interest rates decreased more clearly. The survey also showed that the demand for banking services continued to increase sharply in the second quarter and is forecast to continue in the third quarter and the whole year of 2025.
A notable point is that up to 62.6% of credit institutions participating in the survey expect that the demand for loans will increase much higher than the demand for payments and deposits. On that basis, credit institutions have raised their expectations for system-wide credit growth in 2025 to 16.8%, higher than the actual growth in 2024. The forecast for capital mobilization growth has also been adjusted up to 13.9%, and if achieved, this will be the highest growth rate in the past 5 years.
Overall, factors ranging from interest rates, credit demand, the health of the banking system and regulatory policies are all creating a positive foundation for strong credit growth in the second half of the year. This will be an important driving force to achieve the minimum economic growth target of 8% set by the Government in 2025.
Source: https://baolamdong.vn/nhu-cau-tin-dung-tang-ky-vong-tang-truong-tin-dung-khoi-sac-trong-nua-cuoi-nam-2025-381491.html
![[Photo] Recreating the heroic history of the nation through the show...](https://vphoto.vietnam.vn/thumb/402x226/vietnam/resource/IMAGE/2025/7/7/b2274bbbcda54bed931a910a3c30eb4a)
Comment (0)