More shipping lines return to the Red Sea region, Russia's agricultural exports grow positively, the US once again extends tax exemption for hundreds of Chinese products, the Southeast Asian country discovers a large gas field most globally... are the outstanding world economic news last week.
 |
| In 2023, Russia's agricultural exports will grow positively, with traditional cereals accounting for the largest proportion of the export goods structure, about 38%. (Source: Reuters) |
World economy
Shipping companies are preparing to return to the Red Sea area
French company CMA CGM said on December 26 that it is increasing the number of ships passing through the Suez Canal. This is the next container shipping company after Maersk shipping line to resume operations in the Red Sea area, after efforts initiated by the US to prevent attacks by Houthi forces in Yemen on commercial ships.
Shipping companies are assessing whether the current situation is safe to return to the above route, after the US announced a multinational maritime security initiative in the Red Sea. In a statement, CMA CGM conducted an "in-depth assessment of the security situation" in the area.
“We are currently developing a plan to gradually increase the number of ships passing through the Suez Canal,” the company said. We are continuously monitoring the situation and are ready to immediately re-evaluate to adjust the plan if necessary."
In an announcement on its website on December 26, CMA CGM listed a list of 12 ships redirected around South Africa's Cape of Good Hope, higher than the number of 28 ships in the previously published list.
CMA CGM is one of the shipping lines that has collected additional fees for ship diversions, thereby increasing shipping costs since Houthi forces attacked commercial ships.
Many of the world's leading shipping companies, including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, have stopped using the Red Sea route after Houthi forces this month began targeting commercial ships, disrupting Global trade operates through the Suez Canal. Instead, these companies switched to routes around southern Africa, making the journey longer and more expensive. The Suez Canal is the shortest sea route connecting Asia and Europe.
American economy
* According to the third and final report published on December 21 by the US Department of Commerce, the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the third quarter of 12 was adjusted to decrease to 2023. 4,9%.
The latest report shows, US GDP grew 4,9% compared to a 5,2% increase in the second report. According to the above report, the US economy may have a soft landing in 2024.
However, even if a contraction is avoided, real US GDP growth over the next few quarters could be hampered by tightening monetary policy.
*US trade officials announced on December 26 that this country once again extended tax exemption for hundreds of Chinese products have been subject to punitive taxes. Accordingly, exemptions previously extended until December 31, 12 will be extended until May 2023, 31.
The extension will allow for an “orderly lifting of exemptions”, while there will be cases where further extensions may be possible to “allow for a change in sourcing to the US or third countries”.
China's Economy
*On December 25, China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced the "12-year action plan on building an internationally leading business environment in the Guangdong-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area ( China)-Macao (China)” (Action Plan).
Proposed plan Optimize the market access environment, research to cancel or loosen restrictions such as qualification requirements, shareholding ratio, industry access... for Hong Kong and Macao investors.
*A study by travel planning service Aviasale found, The number of flight tickets booked to China from Russia in 2023 has increased 20 times. According to research, China is among the 15 most popular countries among Russian tourists. The average cost of a two-way ticket from Russia to China in 2023 is 66.700 rubles (725 USD).
In general, Russians are starting to travel abroad more often. If in 2022, the proportion of domestic flights accounted for 81% of total bookings, this year this number has decreased to 77%. In just one year, passengers flew 3,2 billion hours. Russians have visited 163 countries and flown more than 30 billion km.
European economy
* The German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) said on December 22, Housing prices in this country in the third quarter of 2023 have decreased by an average of 10,2%. compared to the same period last year, the sharpest decline since these data were collected in 2000.
The largest declines in house prices were recorded in large cities such as Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, Frankfurt am Main, Stuttgart and Dusseldorf. In these cities, the price of single-family homes and two-apartment houses decreased by 12,7%, while the price of apartments decreased by 9,1%.
Falling demand due to high interest rates and financing costs caused real estate prices to fall in the first half of this year. In the first and second quarters of 2023, residential real estate prices decreased by 6,8% and 9,6%, respectively.
*Among the 10 most traded currencies in the world, The British Pound is the currency with the best performance in 2023. Every 100 British Pounds brought abroad would be exchanged for nearly 121 USD at the beginning of this year, but now 1 British Pound can be exchanged for more than 125 USD. That's not a bad achievement given that the "greenback" has appreciated against most major currencies in the world this year.
The strength of the British Pound is not only beneficial for the tourism industry, it also helps ease the country's inflation by reducing the cost of goods and services purchased from abroad. Among the 10 most traded currencies, only the British Pound and Swiss Franc have had positive developments this year.
*Russian Minister of Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev recently said that this year, the country's agricultural exports are growing positively, with traditional cereals accounting for the largest proportion in the structure of exported goods (about 38 %). Russia remains the world's leading wheat supplier. It is forecast that by the end of 2023, agricultural exports will reach more than 45 billion USD.
Mr. Patrushev said that this will be a record figure for Russia. In 2024, with a bumper harvest and positive production dynamics in key sectors, Russia is expected to maintain its current high export levels.
*Newspaper Trader December 25 announcement about the significant depletion of the reserves of Russia's National Welfare Fund (NWF), Initial capital for aircraft re-registration from foreign lessors.
Of the 300 billion Rubles ($3,2 billion) earmarked for these purposes, only 3,5 billion Rubles remain. Most of this money was spent on payments for the purchase of 86 aircraft of Aeroflot, 45 aircraft of S7 and 19 aircraft of Ural Airlines.
The purchase of the aircraft from foreign owners was carried out in the context of Western sanctions imposed in February 2. The National Welfare Fund provides capital in the form of preferential loans with an interest rate of 2022% for 1,5 years. The new owner of the planes is the leasing company NLK-Finance, controlled by the General Directorate of Air Transport of the Russian Federation.
Economy of Japan and Korea
*According to national wealth estimates announced by the Japanese Cabinet Office on December 25, the country's nominal GDP per capita in 12 is 2022 USD. This is the first time in 14 years that this number is the lowest among countries in the group of leading industrialized countries in the world (G7). due to the impact of Yen devaluation.
Japan's nominal GDP per capita fell from 40.034 USD in 2021, to 34.064 Yen. This number also pushes Japan down one place among member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), i.e. from position 20/38 in 2021 to 21/38 in 2022, the first time since 1980.
*According to Nikkei Asia, Japanese government will establish an umbrella organization for the fusion power industry in March 3. The move aims to accelerate the commercialization of an important energy source for Japan in its decarbonization process and ensuring future energy security.
The new organization is expected to be named “Fusion Energy Forum”, bringing together companies from the private sector, government and academia to develop technology and sales channels to commercialize products. Products.
*South Korean officials said on December 26 that this country will tighten export controls on Russia and Belarus by significantly expanding the list of export-restricted items, to include excavators, batteries and larger vehicles, related to the conflict in Ukraine.
According to the amendment to the strategic goods trading regulations, South Korea added 682 items related to heavy construction equipment, rechargeable batteries, aircraft components, machinery and other items to the list of banned exports. Exported to Russia and Belarus. The new regulations will increase the total number of items on this list from the current 798 items to 1.159 items.
The amendment is expected to take effect in early 2024 after completion of proper administrative procedures and issuance of Government guidance for exporters.
* The Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) said on February 25 that the government decided to increase research and development (R&D) budget in 2024 for chips, batteries, displays, biology, future cars and robots by 5,8% compared to this year to 2.000 billion Won (1,5 billion USD) to enhance competitiveness in key industries latch.
The largest part of the above budget belongs to future cars with 355 billion Won, an increase of 10%. The budget will be used to support the development of micro-gap technologies for the green transition to electric and hydrogen vehicles, information and communications technology, artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous cars.
ASEAN economy and emerging economies
*Indonesia's upstream oil and gas management agency (SKK Migas) has just announced mine discovery gas replenishment in the South Andaman Sea with reserves that are among the "largest in the world".
Mubadala Energy of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has discovered additional reserves through the Layaran-1 exploration well in the South Andaman Block, located about 100 km north of Sumatra island. Mubadala said the discovery could contain more than 6.000 billion cubic feet (bcf).
*The Malaysian economy achieved a trade surplus of 12,41 billion Ringgit (RM; equivalent to 2,68 billion USD), in November 11, maintaining the surplus momentum for the last 43 consecutive months.
According to a report by the Malaysian Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry (MITI), in November 11, the country's exports reached RM2023 billion, down 122,10% over the same period last year. Meanwhile, imports increased by 5,9%, reaching RM1,7 billion. Compared to October 109,69, exports decreased by 10%, imports decreased by 2023% and trade surplus decreased by 3,2%.
Overall, during the period from January to November 1, trade decreased by 11% compared to the same period in 2023, reaching RM7,5 billion.
* Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin said on December 26 that this country's Cabinet had Approval of the Budget Bill for Fiscal Year 2024 after months of delay.
The bill seeks funding of 3.480 billion Baht (about 100 billion USD) for fiscal 2024, which began on October 1, 10. The bill was not passed in time at the beginning of the fiscal year due to the delay in forming a new government after the general election in May 2023.
According to Mr. Srettha, the expected budget for fiscal 2024 increased by 295 billion Baht (about 8,5 billion USD) compared to fiscal 2023, equivalent to an increase of 9,3%.
